Tesla Founders Blog


Cash Incentives from CARB
November 3, 2008, 7:48 am
Filed under: General

If you bought an alternative fuel car in California recently, California’s Air Resources Board has some money for you. We have just been approved for a $5,000 rebate as part of Fueling Alternatives, California’s Alternative Fuel Rebate Program. This rebate program applies to a specific list of electric and natural gas vehicles – NGV Fords converted by BAF, the Honda NGV, The Tesla Roadster, some GEM, Miles, Zenn & Zap cars.  As a highway-capable purely electric car, the Tesla qualifies for the highest rebate.

Strange that Tesla does not mention this rebate to its customers (at least not to us.) We heard about this program from a friend who drives a natural gas Honda Civic (and loves it).

Also Note: New “Downloads” button over on the left side of this webpage.

Here’s a copy of our confirmation letter from CARB. I am told that the money set aside for these rebates is limited, so I recommend getting over there and applying now!

Confirmation Letter from CARB

Confirmation Letter from CARB


144 Comments so far
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It is probably worth mentioning here that Tesla itself may get their own form of CARB rebate in the form of ZEV Credits that they could conceivably sell to other auto companies doing business in California.

By the way, Tesla does indirectly point to that rebate. If you go to the Tesla incentives page, click on Drive Clean – Zero Emissions Vehicle Guide List of Incentives, then click on 2008 Tesla Roadster(Electric), then incentives, you find a link to the Fueling Alternatives program. I know a lot of clicks.

Martin sez:

I wonder how many Tesla customers found that link? Optimally, Tesla would send a customized list of applicable programs to each customer sometime before delivery…

Comment by TEG

[...] Thanks, Martin. It’s probably best to use this permalink: Cash Incentives from CARB Tesla Founders Blog [...]

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Old article on the subject.

Future Roadster customers may be entitled to some new federal tax credits as well:
“Congress Throws Cash At Plug-In Hybrids”
Plug-In Tax Credit Passes House

Comment by TEG

Hey, every penny counts! Take Carolyn on a nice trip somewhere with that rebate!

The terminology strikes me as odd. I thought that a “rebate” was a “refund” from the entity that has received your payment, but I’m sure that you haven’t paid anything to CARB. I suppose that CARB could volunteer to pay rebates for Tesla (or Zenn, Zap, AC Propulsion, etc.), rather than the companies themselves, but… is this an instance of “your tax dollars at work”? Can’t imagine that CARB gets its money from anywhere else. I wonder what size of budget they have for this sort of thing…?

At any rate… what other windfalls will you reap from your car? The illustrious feds managed to insert all kinds of special interest clauses into their “bailout,” and apparently you can get $7,500 from them for your Roadster, right? What about CA? What kind of tax rebate, if any, does the state offer? Any kinds of discounts on registration? tolls? HOV lanes? I would be curious to know what all those incentives add up to at this point.

Comment by Yanquetino

Hi Martin,

Thanks for the information, but I have a question. You suggest people should apply soon before the rebates run out. It is my understanding that you need to have taken DELIVERY of the car, and supply a copy of your vehicle registration, before you can apply for this particular rebate. Is that your understanding, as well? I know you fit that bill, but there are lots of us on the waiting list who won’t have our cars (and therefore registration papers)for a few months yet. Just looking for clarification, thanks.

Martin sez:

Yes, I think you have to take delivery and register the car in California to qualify. That’s why Tesla should let you know *before* your delivery – give you a chance to get your paperwork together so that you can send it in as soon as you take delivery.

Go read the CARB site I linked to – any insights you find, please post here.

At least for me, $5,000 is not chump-change – it makes a very real difference to my family…

Comment by Steve F

# Yanquetino wrote:
## …what other windfalls will you reap from your car? The illustrious feds managed to insert all kinds of special interest clauses into their “bailout,” and apparently you can get $7,500 from them for your Roadster, right?

I think the links I posted just before your comment already mentioned that.

## Any kinds of discounts on registration? tolls? HOV lanes?

There is some mention of that here:
“…High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Lane Exemption…” (but will you clutter the Roadster with the required stickers?)
“…Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) License…
…the incremental cost of purchasing an AFV is exempt from the vehicle license fee (of 2%) when the costs are more than the most comparable conventional fuel vehicle…
…This program expires January 1, 2009…”

Comment by TEG

That cash is to Musk what McCain represents: Chimp Change. I prefer slightly larger bills: Barack Bucks.

Comment by TJ

CNET news has story on singer Neil Young’s classic electric hybrid Lincoln- called the “Thinkin’ Lincoln” (a ‘59)- 500 hp. electric motor- goes 80 to 100 miles per charge-then a rotary CNG engine/generator takes over to power elect. motor. Neil sez that maybe his Neilmobile can win that elect. car prize-shirley he cannot be serious !

Comment by TJ

And now a word from John O’Donnell , co-founder and ex-v.p. of Ausra Solar Co. -part of letter to editor in local ( Las Vegas) paper today: “…Making the 8 year solar (tax credit) incentive the law of the land was a long, hard-fought battle. Sen. Reid introduced the solar tax legislation in the Senate 10 times. I was personally stunned that Sen. John McCain voted “no” 9 times , and only supported it when Sen. Reid included it in the “must pass” bailout bill. The two presidential candidates… have tremendously different policies about energy… Obama has spoken out and voted for policies that will create thousands of solar jobs and build a new export industry for Nevada: selling sunshine by wire. The other candidate has said he primarily supports nuclear power, which will take too long, won’t create any business here and will just send trainloads of nuclear waste to Nevada-that’s so 20th century, isn’t it ? Personally , I’m putting my bet on the guy who wants to create jobs here mining sunshine.” Yes, time for no more Chimp Change from monkeys in D.C.

Comment by TJ

Comment by Chris Harvey

“I see a red door, and I want to paint it [blue]“.

Congratulations America on your new President Elect!

Hopefully this is the end of Reaganism, and the beginning of a new era of peace, prosperity, and social justice.

BTW, did anybody happen to notice what happened to the price of oil today? Coincidence? Maybe.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Chris- your theme video is correct. The modern world has a totally tremendous capacity to build, make, plan anything and everything-even more so with the tech./computer revolution. The only probelm iz: lack of little green pieces of paper with portraits on them. The economists need to find a way to print and widely distribute vast quantities these paper things without inflation ensuing -that’s the name of that tune. They’re not based on gold or anything-they’re just magic pieces of paper-get enough of it circulating broadly and the whole world is much better and gainfully employed. I see a red door and I want to paint it green. Where’s the genius economists with a new economic answer for a world now swimming in vast capacity to produce things/make things better ? I hope Obama puts together a real good team as advertised- now Gore will have a plush seat at the table. They’re saying on the news that good people from the private sector are already submitting applications to join the Obama fed. govt.-like in the days of JFK. As for Obama being the first black president-wait a minute- his mother was as white as Michael Jackson (iz now, that iz)! News reports of the world celebrations of his win include a story of Obama’s great, great , great grandfather being from Ireland. Maybe that explains his political/populist bent & charisma thing: per Clinton, Reagan, JFK irish backgrounds (and Biden for that matter). Well, none of those guys drove the country into a ditch (and the latter 2 definitely had ” the vision thing” -which Bush Sr. said he never had- no kidding !)-so if form holds true…

Comment by T.J.

Chris- once again you were in the Rod Serling Omen-Like Vanguard with the “Money-That’s What I Want” video. Further online news sez Obama ancestor, 3.0 (X generation) version, came from small village of “Moneygall” . Now he and his economic advisors needs to write a textbook sequel to his book “The Audacity of Hope”, titled: “The Gall of Money”.

Comment by TJ

TJ,

what impact do you think an Obama-Biden administration will have on the progress of the renewable energy/alternative transportation movements? Will things accelerate? Will it be included in the infrastructure build-out that’s been promised? Will America’s next big industry (& job base) be renewable energy? Who will fill the void as the Detroit 3 fade into history? Will Bush set fire to the Oval Office as he leaves for the last time next January, or will he just be glad he’s leaving? :) How does all this tie-in to possible rebates on BEVs & REEVs?

How much more can GWB add to the national debt before January 20th 2009? I don’t know about you, but I think we are heading into even more interesting times in the coming months. I hear that the Shrub is trying to trash a lot of environmental legislation before he leaves office. What have you heard?

Comment by Chris Harvey

Chris- I read that longtime Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee (see wikipedia) was in Skull & Bones Club at Yale- that would figure- “what else is new”? Also, there’s a site called Namebase.org that shows links between people- Eldridge Haynes has links to some of CIA fringe/ world finance guys- Phillip Agee for one. Kind of ties in to what you find at bottom of wikipedia post for Business International Corp. (where Obama worked after Columbia Univ.) I tried some name related to watergate coverup and pulled up a bunch of old rats (JFK coverup linked too)- like Howard Hunt, Frank Sturgis, Myer Lansky- Haynes name was on this list-forget now which name it was that had all these links-including Haynes- I was surfing for awhile on namebase.org with different names. FDR said: “nothing in politics happens by accident” -almost never, that is-but when accidents do happen, lone nuts appear. The economy going very bad “right on schedule” supposedly assured Obama win fer sure. All I know is that the “funny business” is totally entrenched ( for, like, ever). The powers that be have tried every which way to quash the JFK/RFK truths from surfacing since that would blow the lid on the “Wizard of Oz man behind the curtain”. However-there sure was a difference between Gore and Bush-but look who lost. The powers that be knew exactly what the situation was in the economy -what was building up for 8 years-unlike govt. officials/regulators they have inside info. on “the private economic dealings” – fer sure. Therefore they could blow things up economically by just setting off “a pre-designed stampede already on the verge of happening”-like anytime they wanted to monkey with a bunch of cash they/assoc. had put into the system: leaving the other Titanic financial passengers, including all of us, saying “what do you mean no more lifeboats !?” A long time ago -months,before the primaries – I said Obama would be president. As David Icke said: “first they create the problem” -as in Bush and the mess- “then they offer the solution”. My solution would be RFK, Jr. – protected by a force of invisible aliens led by Luke Skywalker, but of course. Guess what we’ve got here is a case of “good world cabalists /bad world cabalists”- the former now bringing us Obama- or “letting him happen” . I don’t know-you tell me what the game is, but there is a game being run, loosely or not so loosely-per just about each decade, literally. A lot of world problems could be wiped out fast by those little green pieces of paper with portraits on them-just crank up the presses 24/7 (worry about inflation later)- but noooo !!: “Someone may have other plans”.

Comment by TJ

TJ:

The government printing more dollars without causing inflation is analogous to a company with a million shares outstanding issuing another million shares and expecting their stock price not to drop.

One of the biggest problems in this country is that the dollar is not backed by anything real.

Trying to change the laws of economics is like trying to change the law of gravity. Increasing productivity is the only real way to boost the economy, not by injecting more nearly-worthless dollars into it.

Comment by Rob

Rob,

In his own way, I think TJ was suggesting that the system needs more capital liquidity to match, and open up, what he sees as untapped potential production.

Of course, we had plenty of credit liquidity in the last six years (the credit part got us into trouble) and the ev/clean energy “revolution” still only inched along.

Comment by Gabe

A USD 5000 rebate seems a bit puny to me, especially considering the amount of incentives put on standard gasoline cars every day and the (let’s face it) still minuscule amount of electric cars (ok, I see there are also gas cars: I suppose it’s a very good deal for those guys).

But I admit this HOV-lane thing sounds very good to me. Very good and very cheap but more valuable than a few bucks.

Comment by MaxDZ8

Max,

I think that if the CARB rebate is in addition to the federal rebate (or is it a tax credit?) of $7500.00, then that’s not bad at all. You’d be looking at a 10% rebate on a Roadster. Of course, it would be great if there were no state or federal taxes to pay either…

Another good possibility would be a special incentive package for people who bought a BEV/PV array combo. The utility companies should be kicking-in something there as well.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Gabe,

sorry I didn’t respond to your post of Nov. 2nd, I got distracted & busy! I think you’re right about TM’s capital raising strategy, they probably didn’t anticipate having to raise money in such a difficult environment. I’m just a bit surprised that they let it get that low. That kind of news can sink a company. It leaves me wondering what Ze’ev has been up to for the past 10 months or so.
I’m glad that they managed to arrange some additional investment (though I suspect that most of it was from EM…) to get them through to the DOE loan guarantee. Despite what I think of Elon, I still want to see the company succeed (very much so). I hope that there is more development money made available to them from the new administration next year. I agree with many others who feel that TM would put R&D money to much better use than say, GM or Ford.

The times, they are a-changin. Somethins blowin in tha wind.

Question: Why would the feds give GM $10 billion just so they can afford to close factories & lay-off workers? Looks like a Catch 22 for the Federal Government.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Rob- I’ve read more than once that U.S. productivity has increased quite well in recent years and yet salaries/standard of living of most people have remained basically flat. Maybe this is due to ,like,productivity increases in places like China- I don’t know. It’s just funny on the face of it that there can’t be an equilibrium in the U.S./ world economy that allows for all the great things that there is the capcity to produce to be produced. It’s like the whole world is always praying for enough trickle down manna from heaven to keep trickling. I’m just saying that there is incredible capacity in any area/industry/endeavor you want to name- and a lot of this capacity is going unused.Green tech. has huge capacity-we could be twice as far down the line with it than we are now-easily, with the right policies and cash for the past 8 years. I say print more magic green pieces of paper, help Detroit go green, put the pedal to the metal on green tech. as if your foot is on a Tesla Roadster accelerator pedal and then hammer inflation, after the ship stops sinking, once it starts raising its head. Here we are in the 21st century, with all the progress since the 1930’s, and we’re dealing with economic halibut straight out of that time. Man, this “humanoid economics systems stuff” sure is iffy and touchy-where’s the humanoid progress on that front, to go with the gigantic progress on all the other fronts ?

Comment by T.J.

I guess the bug in the “productivity= economic progress” system is GDP growth in places like China. While middle class income has been flat for like 10 years, despite some nice productivity gains, the rich have definitely gotten richer. This makes sense, since “the rich” can outsource-then there’s also the “Wal-Mart M.O.” : as the chinese factories get more productive and make more profit ,the Waltons of Arkansas say: “that’s nice to hear-now lower your prices further (as in: give us your new-found profits) so was can sell cheaper-if you still want to sell your products in our esteemed stores, that is”. So Wal-Mart can out-price like Target and K-Mart and whoever, thereby, through shear volume, raking in more cash. Explaining like how something like 5 Waltons are in the top 20 wealthiest people in the U.S. So the newly mutated “asian economic bug” in the system is messing with the “productivity= econ. progress” equation ? Of course the chinese refuse to raise the value of their currency to go with double digit annual GDP increase- good for them but bad for the rest of the world selling stuff to them. Of course they look out for their own interests at all costs-as opposed to us.

Comment by TJ

TJ:

I do agree with you that green tech could bring new jobs to the U.S. I just don’t like the idea of government subsidizing it. There’s never been a problem that couldn’t be made worse by setting up a big government program to solve it.

Better to keep taxes low, and allow private citizens and companies to decide how to spend and invest their money. Some of them will choose to invest in green tech, and buy green tech products.

Comment by Rob

Rob- except you’re forgetting the space program (the orginal NASA, JFK version that is)-and the German government’s wunderbar solar program which is taking almost literally the entire production of the U.S. solar firms “First Solar” (with stock valued at like around 250) and “Nanosolar”. Also, the Nellis AFB 140 acre solar installation, as well as recent U.S. Army green tech./green vehicle installation announcements (which I posted awhile ago) at various bases- and all the state mandates for certain percent of power to be green by certain year, and the recent renewed 8 year fed. solar tax credit. Without various govts. “help”, green tech. wouldn’t be thriving near as much as now. So “govt., for lack of a better word, is/can be good “-govt. incentives, not direct subsidizes. Check this out also (wind fans !): Aerotecture International- check out their neat horizontal wind turbines for buildings, looks like they have clear plastic “vanes”-photos show installation on a Chicago building (perfect Windy City symbolic gesture) by Helmut Jahn- a big cat from way back in the Chicago architecture world. As for Detroit needing $25 billion to save them and to go green with cars- I say give them $35 billion. Our esteemed federal govt. is, ultimately, definitely more than half responsible for getting us into this mess-so the jokers need to spend whatever it takes via finding/printing more little green pieces of paper to clean it up. Print, baby, print !

Comment by T.J.

Tesla crash testing continues:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/11/04/tesla-roadster-gets-crash-tested-at-100-kph-passes/

A lot more good stuff has been on http://www.autobloggreen.com lately. Here’s an excerpt that illustrates why corporation execs make the huge bucks:

One of the highlights of the redesigned Ford Fusion that will debut in less than two weeks is the new hybrid model. The new Fusions … will start production in December shortly after the LA Auto Show at Ford’s Hermosillo, Mexico assembly plant. In spite of that, it won’t be readily available just yet. Unfortunately, it appears that people hoping to snap up one of the 38 mpg mid-sized sedans may have to wait a while, because there are too many of the current 2008 and 2009 models still sitting unsold on Ford dealer lots. (that) …means we probably won’t find Fusion … hybrids for sale until about March.

Here’s an excerpt from another article. No comment from me is necessary:

GM’s continued life depends on its fuel-savers while Toyota’s motive is continued profitability, making it painfully obvious that The General should have gotten a much earlier start on its hybrids and EVs.

Comment by Steve S.

GMs latest corporate strategy = beg for a handout

Even if GM manages to persuade the feds to hand over more cash, they (GM) will use that money to shift production to lower cost labor markets, such as Mexico, China, and Eastern Europe. That means that GM will close plants in the U.S. & Canada, and layoff employees at those plants. Even with a large federal government handout, GM will eventually go bankrupt because it lacks effective leadership (and has lacked it for a long time). Trying to change course for GM at this point is like trying to turn a supertanker with a toothpick. GM just has too much inertia to change course in enough time to miss the iceberg. GM burned through $6.9 billion dollars in cash in the third quarter of this year, which leaves them with less than $13 billion in cash, by my estimate. They are required to maintain cash reserves of at least $14 billion in order to meet federal regulations.

It is well within the realm of possibility that we will see GM file for chapter 11 before the end of 2008. The restructuring that would ensue could involve selling off valuable brands such as Corvette, Cadillac, Saab, Holden, and Vauxhall-Opel (let’s face it, nobody will buy Hummer in this environment). GM is quickly running out of options, and it appears that top execs feel their best shot is to beg for a bailout. Will it happen? I have no idea… We’ll just have to stay tuned.

Comment by Chris Harvey

TJ and Chris,
Obama has a list of 200+ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/08/AR2008110801856_2.html?hpid=topnewsto reverse.

Comment by vfx

What’s with all these guys driving Teslas who “can’t drive” anyway ?-running into back of a truck then a car and now this. Must have been a pretty sharp curve to lose it hydroplaning at 60 mph-I don’t know about the rest of you , but I’ve driven in snow & rain and never come close to losing it at speeds which would wreck the car-because, like the rest of you no doubt, I also am very careful driving in rain & snow. I haven’t heard anything about GM top execs. cutting their salaries to $1 per year for the duration-when William Clay Ford was running Ford that was his salary. Instead GM is turning off lights more and all that. Personally I think that since the fed. govt. is a full co-culprit in the meltdown with Wall St. , they should fork over whatever cash it takes to bail out Detroit. Jobs loses now are already absurd, Detroit failing would sink everything. I heard that sometime in 2009 GM would be rid of some of its “legacy costs” and be competitive again- or more competitive- re. that. Let’s face it-there’s jackasses running loose all over this country: congress, Wall St., Enron before that, and all the companies that unleash their lobbyist armies on the rest of us- yep: muleheads everywhere. No reason at all to let the muleheads destroy any more human jobs-humans need those little green pieces of paper. Print, donkeys, print !

Comment by TJ

vfx- this is great news-reversing the reign of “The Tin Man Bush”-yes, he was really not an “oil man” -he just played one on T.V. “If he only had a brain”-o.k., he did have a brain-but a sinister, and so defective, one. The govt. should also find a way to plaster the rooftops of Detroit’s auto plants with solar. Why? because Michigan (and wherever else they are) needs the jobs help- and this in an infrastructure issue as well- as in “the U.S. power supply infrastructure” . But the rooftops are so big, plenty of the power would be surplus-going into the Michigan elect. grid- the huge plant roofs would just make for convenient large “one stop” venues to slap solar on. Just do it and get it over with, o.k.? Print, herbivores, print !

Comment by TJ

vfx,

thanks for pointing out the Washington Post article, it sounds promising. Let’s see what happens.

Comment by Chris Harvey

TJ,

Detroit would hardly be my first choice for solar – too far north and shitty weather. Better to start someplace south, where the sun always shines. Oh wait, I feel a song coming on…

Comment by Gabe

Gabe, like this old blues?

Don’t buy no car from where the sun don’t shine. (repeat)
Detroit City ain’t no friend of mine.

They got they cars usin’ too much gas.
(repeat)
They top execs got they head up they ass.

(chorus)
They rich, though. Yeah they rich.
And we got to pay for they mistakes.

Comment by Steve S.

Gabe- Nah, Germany is about the same latitude as Michigan and they’re swimming in solar, an’ more on the way-just slap it everywhere an’ get it over with.

Comment by T.J.

I don’t like the blues-BBC News came across a catchy ditty, per: You Tube “Obama Hardy song”.

Comment by T.J.

Ahh, but TJ, Germany doesn’t have the choice on latitude that we do. I’m not saying Michigan solar isn’t feasible, just that its got a lower payback than southern solar.

Steve, is that what they call the “ev blues”?

Comment by Gabe

When some Germans built their failed experimental solar chimney project back in the eighties, they built it in Spain.

Gabe, I was going to call it Sun Don’t Shine, but EV Blues is good too.

For those who do like the blues, here’s a follow-up on the Albert King – SRV clip I posted a while back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FlaY1P7mkc&feature=related

Could there be a strong inverse correlation between liking the blues and liking the Aptera?

Comment by Steve S.

I actually like the aptera…but musically, it makes one consider swedish technopop.

Comment by Gabe

It looks like the core of the mystery of the Aptera’s repulsion/attraction for different people doesn’t reside in music appreciation. A better guess on my part might have been a knowledge of physics and its effect on individual aesthetics. In addition to stability and safety concerns, the car would be much more at home at Burning Man than at Bonneville. Anyway, it’s all in good fun.

Except for the waiting. There’s a theory that the main difference caused by being financially comfortable, instead of just getting by, is the increased intolerance for waiting. Governmental institutions, physicians, and now airlines seem to try to emphasize their superiority, relative importance and lack of respect for their customers by routinely making them wait.

A somewhat similar theory is the pump and switch theory: the more affluent a person becomes, the more that person’s life is impacted negatively by the failures of pumps and switches.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve,

I don’t know that there is any conscious decision on the part of any of those institutions to ignore their users/customers. Part of the modern and postmodern world is continued dehumanization. Camus saw this along time ago when he wrote about the “benevolent indifference of the universe” (The Stranger) and so did BF Skinner when he wrote “To man qua (as) man we say good riddance” (Beyond Freedom and Dignity). The difference between the two is that Skinner embraced the idea and Camus lost quite a bit of sleep over it.

I think the fundamental problem is that very few people have come up with a rational way to see humans as uniquely important individuals without resorting to religion or mysticism. As those latter worldviews are dropped, as Nietzsche pointed out (God is Dead), there is seemingly nothing to take their place except Skinner’s Behaviorism or some equally dehumanizing worldview, so Man becomes a machine, or a number, or the contents of his wallet.

The solution is the same as a cross breeding between a rhinoceros and an elephant: elephino (hell if I know).

Comment by Gabe

Gabe, you’re right that I was a little tongue-in-cheek in describing the making people wait phenomenon as a completely intentional cause, when what I was interested in was the effect. Such things amuse me from time to time. But you certainly know that being forced to wait has a powerful psychological effect on you, and it would be wrong to suppose that no one in power has noticed that, or used it for intimidation, etc.

“Philosophers all start out by trying to prove that previous philosophers were fools, and they often succeed.” -Mencken, approx.

The God is Dead, etc. arguments aren’t at all compelling to me, although it’s certainly true that an important reason for the original popularity of religions is their elevation of the status of people above that of slaves or farm animals.

A case could be made the other way, that life for most people in developed countries has become much less dehumanizing in the modern world. Primitive cultures have been found to be full of disgusting and dehumanizing practices like slavery, torture, mutilation and human sacrifice. Consider the parts of the world where religious fundamentalism is in power today.

“The worst government is the most moral. One composed of cynics is often very tolerant and human, but when fanatics are on top there is no limit to opression.” -Mencken

It’s certainly true that powerful dehumanizing forces have been at work in modern times. One is the rise to power of the corporations, http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=+%22corporation+movie%22+site%3Avideo.google.com&__q=&btnG=Google+Search&lr=&dur=3&dis_ft=&so=0&num=100#

Another is the application of the techniques of mass psychology, http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=+%22century+of+self%22+site%3Avideo.google.com&__q=&btnG=Google+Search&lr=&dur=3&dis_ft=&so=0&num=100#

Another is basing our economic lives on the trashing of the earth’s natural resources to produce and sell a bunch of junk that gets thrown out within six months. We’re told that if we stop buying or even slow down, that our economies will crash and burn and we’ll live miserable lives.

http://www.storyofstuff.com/

It’s impossible to do justice to any of these subjects in a short note. They’re largely matters of opinion, and hard to quantify. And it may not be wise to dwell upon them, because they can be depressing.

Comment by Steve S.

“To do is to be”- Nietzche “To be is do to”- Camus “Do be do be do”- Sinatra Detroit has shot itself in foot, Grasshoppers- now Wall St. & fed, govt. have shot them in the other foot. No longer can hobble= food for coyotes. Congress must act like Doc Holiday (even though he was a dentist) and bind at least one foot, free of charge, Grassmokers.

Comment by TJ

Fisker cars (press release) announced opening of Detroit office: “34,000 sq. ft., employing up to 200 engineers and designers”. Wonder if some will be from closed Tesla office? – said they have financing from Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield, Byers- superior to Telsa backing ?

Comment by TJ

Martin,

I was wondering what you think of Electrovaya’s Li ion SuperPolymer batteries:

http://www.electrovaya.com/innovation/master/Default.aspx

They claim that their batteries have “superior energy density”, but they don’t say what it is superior to… I was wondering if you know anything about these guys and their product(s). Apparently they are developing a BEV with Changan Automobile Group of China, which they claim they will bring to Canada before the end of this year. Have you heard anything about this? Do you know if this is a legitimate project?

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/17082

Also, I hear that Magna also plans to get into the EV business, so hopefully at least one of three companies (including ZENN) should have a highway capable EV in Canada in the next 12-24 months. I’m thinking that Magna or ZENN are the most likely to come through on this, but I’m interested in the Electrovaya project too. What do you think?

Comment by Chris Harvey

I just watched this speech by Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1569

At first I was excited that the new administration is planning to strongly encourage alternative energy and plug-in cars. I’ve been a big fan of Google until I read the following.

1. “And of course you need that smart grid in order to get the benefits that we’re getting from all the hybrids and all the plug-ins and all the batteries that we’re busy building.”

2. “It’s very important that you have a network of grid (sic) where the car can sense when things are cheap.”

Those seem to me to be blatant self-serving lies, since Google has a partnership with GE which hopes to build the smart grid. Our government would seemingly have to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars on top of our huge existing debt, and pay a huge amount of interest for an unneccesary system. Shouldn’t Mr. Schmidt disqualify himself from being a governmental advisor because of his conflict of interest?

As is well known, EVs and plug-in hybrids work very well with the existing grid, which wouldn’t need an increase in capacity to serve them since almost all of the charging is done at off-peak hours.

He says that the smart grid would be a lot like the internet. I guess that means that it enables V2G and can let your car know when it’s nighttime. The existing grid already integrates multiple power sources very well. Not much bang for the huge smart grid buck.

The most annoying part of it for me is that it implies that no benefit is possible from EVs and plug-in hybrids without financing and waiting for Mr. Schmidt’s cash cow to be built.

Comment by Steve S.

Valleywag mentions Martin…

Comment by TEG

Some of the pundits on T.V. and in the papers say not to bail out Detroit. “Dock these chimps a week’s pay for nappin’ on the job”. Yeah, right- go ahead and unemploy millions of people all down the food chain all for the stupidity of a very few at the top in business and govt.-brilliant. Some pundit mentioned “retraining”-oh yeah, right, dream on -like Aerosmith even. As for Detroit being out of it all the time, witness that Detroit invented the Mini-van, and the “common SUV” and the retro-trend (via the PT Cruiser-which led to good cars like the Mini, reincarnated VW Bug , and the quite nice new Mustang-among others.)- foreign car companies joined in on all these trends. Also, GM at one time was out front with the EV-1 Impact-and their wiz kid Alan Cocconi led directly to Tesla and the current feeding frenzy of coming li-ion powered cars. I rest my case. Main trouble with this country is in who often filters to the top in companies and govt. ( and in T.V. and newspaper commentary positions too)-period.

Comment by TJ

TEG, thanks for the Valleywag link. Pretty rough crowd over there, e.g. http://valleywag.com/5079875/is-elon-musk-aiming-to-take-over-tesla

I recently discovered some Tesla history links you posted at the Tesla club site last year, notably to the Michael Shnayerson article on the history of Tesla. As you know he wrote The Car That Could about the Impact EV-1 prototype. Thanks again!

TJ, I hope you don’t get laughed out of court over that remark about Alan Cocconi being GM’s boy. By all accounts he was disgusted by GM. He was never a GM employee, or even an employee of Aerovironment, the southern CA creator of the Impact prototype. He did the Impact work as consultant, in his well-equipped home garage. He did briefly consult for GM to get their engineers up to speed for productionizing the drivetrain electronics for the EV-1.

Comment by Steve S.

TJ, excellent point about our government having no other choice than to bail out Detroit. Dumping a few million jobs is not a realistic option for them. Sometimes I fear that the auto company executives let that fact play heavily into their operational strategy. A popular mantra for the times is “privatization of profit, socialization of risk”.

Good point about Detroit having an illustrious past, too. For almost a century Detroit led the world in making low cost comfortable, powerful, dependable cars.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve- I stand corrected on Cocconi- so, someone GM hired then hired him as a consultant ? In any case, someone(s) at GM farmed out a good team and the EV-1, by all accounts (no ?) was a great car, especially for it’s day. Detroit is/was/could be full of good people and stuff IF the standard American M.O. of “weasels float to the top of companies and their boards” (as Martin would attest ?) didn’t mess things up in standard M.O style.

Comment by TJ

Arthur Laffer of “the laffer curve” economic fame sez that the real problem is that the fed. reserve didn’t put enough money into the system: “The Fed did not allow the money base to expand (for fear of inflation), and we had a panic in the liquid markets”. This is in line with my current theory for a way out -the “way out, man ! theory ” ™ – of “print, baby , print !” There are probably as many people unemployed now as in the recessions of ‘73 or ‘82 or, actually, the Great Depression-since, with a lot bigger population, there are a lot more workers now – the approx. 6.5% unemployment now probably equals the 25% unemployment of the great depression in numbers of people. If we now don’t Save the Whales (the beached ones called GM, Chrysler and Ford) we’re looking at huge trouble.

Comment by TJ

In news: the cities of Philadelphia, Atlanta and Phoenix now want a piece of the $700 billion federal bailout money. Trouble iz , I think a lot of cities are living in la-la land since their pay scales are too high, and on top of that they offer nice pensions, health care, whatever-and a number of these jobs allow for overtime, which is being abused (according to a recent local investigation of T.V.-and no doubt this is also a national issue)-this really jackups govt. pay, like double even. Meanwhile, back at the U.S. ranch, income disparity and poverty levels rank the U.S. 27th out of 30 (30 being worst) among industrialized countries studied recently by a group called OECD- and a heck of a lot of people “in the private sector” have no pensions or health care, or 401(k)’s even. No only that, govt. jobs produce absolutely nothing- they are just “monitoring” type jobs-be it cops, firemen, city agency people of all types-whoever. Not only that, a lot of govt. jobs are very safe- they will be the last jobs to go in a terrible downturn- and a lot of these jobs are absolutely bulletproof- since govt. will never be totally allowed to fail. Given all of this, the pay in govt. jobs in general is out of whack. Wouldn’t everyone love to have the “govt. job M.O. type set-up” in their line of work. Many of the people losing jobs now-at Tesla, in Silicon Valley-wherever- actually PRODUCE something. These jobs are “valued added” to the economy. So I say it’s high time that the govt. job sector gets frickin’ real-and this includes the public universities. I saw a list in the local paper of something like the most current 350 university hirings locally over the past 3 years or so. The salaries being paid were actually incredible- almost all of them starting at $100,000 per year and going up (with all the abovementioned perks, of course). Meanwhile is TUITON cost staying even or going down ? Is the need for student loans going down?-no of course not. Yeah, feather the “govt. employee nest” while the nests of the rest of the society as a whole get rattier- brilliant ! About time the govt. types wake up and smell the reality around them-but then what incentive do they have to do this, unless the state legislatures or governors step in and slap them around ?

Comment by TJ

TJ, here’s a link to a chapter of the 1995 book, The Car That Could: http://www.businessweek.com/chapter/shnaychp.htm

I recommend pasting it into Word to enable massaging the ghost font into something easier to read.

The book is out of print, so I ended up ordering a used copy.

Here’s a book review http://74.125.113.104/search?q=cache:Y2ookHvrigcJ:www.teslamotorsclub.com/electric-cars/598-book-report-car-could.html+shnayerson+%22the+car+that+could%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=46&gl=us
from the Tesla club forum.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve-nice Business Week article- I skimmed thru it, will read it in detail later. Right now I’m licking my wounds since Cal just lost to Oregon State- too bad Cal QB Aaron Rodgers (now Green Bay QB) couldn’t play for 8 years instead of 4. Need a second coming of Steve Bartkowski – or Joe Roth.

Comment by TJ

TJ, I guess it’s just us now. Since you now have a high speed connection, I’ll post this link to the video FutureCrush again: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3974264721033016884&ei=VpQfSbbHMpOwqwLAye3xBg&q=+%22futurecrush%22&hl=en

The second half has the best stuff, including a long interview with the electric motor genius Wally Rippel. His words about GM destroying its own future sounded improbable back then, but now it looks like GM will go under if we taxpayers don’t rescue it (which we will).

At the end is a top WWU guy talking about the EV-1 that was donated to them years ago by GM, after removing many essential electronic components and cutting electrical wires, in a strong effort to prevent it from being repaired. In the last year or so, the WWU founder and former director, Dr. Mike Seal, came out of retirement and completed a major project to restore the car as accurately as possible, getting help and spare parts from experts all over the country. He towed the car to Arizona to an EV-1 maven’s shop for much of the work. Here’s a page of related YouTube videos: http://www.seattleeva.org/wiki/GM_EV1_WWU_Resurrection

Comment by Steve S.

Steve-watched the video-the Impact is still a neat car- Studebaker did the same rear window in like 1948 (or was it ‘46 ?). Wally Rippel should have been the “Musk with the money guy” for Tesla- or Howard Hughes, if he had been a car guy instead of a plane guy-and could be brought back. CEO Roger Smith of GM at least did one thing right- but he was ousted soon after. It’s something how this country works in fits and starts, bits and pieces- which ultimately often get smashed or diverted “by corp. American weasels in suits”. Imagine if the weasels morphed into friendly, fast moving cheetahs (beloved by almost all- Thompson Gazelles being the main exception). Then everybody would be on the same page. But- too many hyenas in the status quo camp-laughing at us, not with us. Hope Obama fixes this on the political front-now he’s consulting & dealing with a lot of Clinton era people. Picking Hillary as sec. of state would be dumb – what, there’s no “new” names out there in this big country- or what ? They say it’s in line with the Lincoln M.O. of putting former rivals in his admin. Except in this case she refers back to a whole other admin. herself-bad move, I say- why come across as “Clinton II” ? If he’s for “change” then change it up.

Comment by TJ

Then again, the Clintons were/are trusty Rothschild team players.

Comment by TJ

Steve,

thanks for the link to “FutureCrush”. I hadn’t seen it before and I found it very interesting. It was great to hear the inside story from Wally.

Re: GM & taxpayer bailout. So, what happens if the US taxpayer does end up bailing out the General? Does it end there? Will all those jobs be saved? The answers (IMHO) are “No” and “No”. GM has lost over $70 billion in the last four years. It’s market cap is currently sitting at $1.84 billion, and it burned through $6.9 billion in cash in 3Q 08 (which is double what I estimated in a previous “the sky is falling” rant…). Even if the US Treasury forked over $25 billion tomorrow, that would only extend GM’s life for another 12 months or so (at their current cash-burn rate). In order for GM to significantly reduce it’s operating costs, it would have to shift most of it’s production to low cost labor markets, which essentially means it would have to use the bailout money to layoff American workers… I’m guessing that wouldn’t go down too well from a political perspective. Even with these drastic measures, GM would be back knocking at the US taxpayer’s door in 12 months looking for another $25 billion, or so, to stay afloat. The only difference will be that the US taxpayer will be less inclined to prop up a company that shipped all those manufacturing out of the US in the last 12 months.
I do not envy the next Administration’s task. Politically, they have to prop up GM in the short term, but in the long term, they will have to cut it loose…

BTW, it’s kind of ironic that the Republican candidate and his sidekick were accusing Obama of being a “Socialist” during the campaign. And now we have a Republican administration creating a socialist-style banking system… It’s a funny old world, but I wouldn’t want to have to paint it… :)

Comment by Chris Harvey

Correction:

I meant to say “all those manufacturing jobs out of the US”.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Chris- I read that sometime in 2009 GM is scheduled to be rid of its “legacy costs” dragging them down like an albatross. A Senator Shelby of Alabama said ” Detroit is a dinosaur that doesn’t innovate and build good cars” -wrong- they actually have innovated over the years and they do build some really good cars- problem often is, besides their “fits and starts” programs and bad management, that the cars cost too much for a lot of avg. people to afford or want to buy. There was news a few weeks ago about the Defense Dept. going to buy 4000 EV or plug-in cars- well there’s a nice order for Detroit to get, for starters. Now Obama should say: “let’s triple that order” if possible-and how about the Navy, Coast Guard, Air Force & Marines ? Let’s just have D.C. now also say: o.k. we’re going to replace every fed. govt. fleet car with a plug-in hybrid, ASAP- there’s more orders. Then D.C. could say “and we’re going to help states do the same”. If the fed. govt. wants to fund infrastructure work, like “they’re all talking about” then fund,in this way, what drives on the frickin’ infrastructure too. Then the whole system is new and shiny and up to speed. Of course give Detroit bailout money with some nice stipulations: like the UAW needs to get with it, or else-and the CEO’s need to get paid like $1 per year “for the duration” and other upper management needs to get real on pay too-and whatever else you can find about the companies that needs fixing-some experts surely know it all. If Detroit needs to come back in a year for more cash, well that would be due to the stupid fed. govt. ultimately not getting the recession over- the one they definitely helped cause- yeah, that one. If it takes 2 or 3 years to do it-so be it: D.C. ULTIMATELY let the disaster happen- they had their warnings. But noooo- guys like Phil Graham and all his like-minded “whining fellow travelers” (whining about “lordy , lordy us greedy rich ain’t making enough on stock market returns-we need some clever new totally unregulated investment vehicles-lordy just LISTEN to us whine ! )- had to have it all their way, no matter what the danger to the rest of the country. People in the know, like regulator Brooksley Born, were proverbially screaming about the dangers. So,here’s the deal congress: Detroit is finally crawling out from under its legacy costs,and they’re actually making some good cars-and trying to go plug-in hybrid. This is not to excuse their past bad management and lobbying to keep the status quo at all costs to the bitter end (such as trying to sue Calif. to stop their mileage mandating- and THAT B.S. of course would have to go in a bailout)- BUT you jokers in congress and your fellow jokers on Wall St. ” are calling the kettle black”. Talk about “mismanagement and status quo lobbying” ! YOU should talk about the jackasses in Detroit- look in the mirror- see that mulehead staring back at you ? Get a 2×4 and whack it in the head- instead of whacking millions of workers with jobs tied into Detroit over the head . The place and time for the buck to stop on that M.O. is here and now.

Comment by TJ

GM needs new leadership that is not committed to old Lock-ins if it is going to ever be a viable competitor. Only someone from outside the industry will be able to implement necessary Disruptions and create White Space that will allow GM (or Ford or Chrysler) to address long-term shortcomings. I don’t know why Jobs would take the job, but someone who is Jobs-like is necessary. Read more at http://www.ThePhoenixPrinciple.com

Comment by adam Hartung

Chris, did you notice at about 7:20 of Future Crush that Linda had a sign in front of her RAV4-EV: “Save GM from bankruptcy”? That seemed pretty cheeky back then, but now ….

At first I expect the government will focus on trying to stop the bleeding with their bailouts, not presuming to provide any cures. Later on a lot could be done with incentives, rebates, contracts to meet specifications, testing and R&D labs, etc. The government programs of the depression era and WW2 could provide some ideas.

I just hope it won’t turn out to be badly misdirected like the military-industrial complex debacles warned about by Eisenhower, and that the focus will be on the timely creation of green cars, batteries, and power plants.

I suspect that a great deal of the money will be directed into burying thousands of miles of extremely high voltage cables and the like, unfortunately.

A lot of bright folks without a strong financial interest should be involved in the planning stages. Perhaps we need an energy and EV czar, not Al Gore but a practical, technical guy to make sure programs pass the smell test. Wally or Martin would be good.

Comment by Steve S.

Yes, Wally- “the Rippel effect-ster”, and Martin- Congress should see what Lee Iacocca has to say too. Wonder what “top” (whatever that means) business school profs. would also have to say . All of the above should also look at who’s on the Detroit company boards. Martin would probably like to look into that based on past experience. As for exec. pay-congress should give these guys (if they allow all of them them to stay) some lousy offers they can’t refuse.

Comment by TJ

The bleeps on govt. failed to get a handle on the economic meltdown. Every week people need a job and a paycheck- or quite soon there will be a lot more people without the same. As I said from the start (so give me a big, shiny medal) the bailout amount should have been $1.5 trillion not $700 million, and with a quick option for more.

Comment by TJ

Citibank announced layoffs today of 52,000. Those running the Banana Republic of the North known as D.C. need to be told, in Garret Morris of SNL style (for the hearing impaired) : “Print, baby, print !”. Ben Stein has an editorial on the Larry King website today saying the same thing.

Comment by TJ

What if the U.S had national healthcare like every other real country in the world ? According to Fortune Magazine online article (from 2007) the biggest problem with the Detroit Big Three is labor costs-and the biggest cost in labor cost is healthcare. They said GM spends $1635 on health care labor costs per car, Toyota spends $215. Regardless of the agreements with UAW per this, which I read will lessen (or almost eliminate ?) the problem sometime in 2009, if this country would have been following the world model for decades then Detroit wouldn’t have always been operating at a big world disadvantage for years-and having to depend sales of big ticket items like SUV’s and pickups. Blame all this on the fed. govt. and the healthcare/drug company lobbyist army. Article also said that currency rates in Japan and elsewhere give advantage for foreign makers. No doubt other countries also over the years have been acting to make it harder for Detroit, for one, to sell over there too- which I read somewhere a few years ago.

Comment by TJ

Some interesting basic information is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors

“…General Motors employs about 266,000 people around the world. It manufactures its cars and trucks in 35 different countries….”

“In the late 1990s, the U.S. economy was on the rise and GM and Ford gained market share producing enormous profits primarily from the sale of light trucks and sport-utility vehicles.”

“In 2008 rapidly rising gas prices resulted in a 30% drop off of sales of SUVs which had been GM’s most profitable product, often returning profits of 10 to 15 thousand dollars per vehicle.”

“During the first 6 months of 2008 GM lost $18.8 billion and by late October its stock had dropped 76%….”

“Although retiree health care costs remain a significant issue, General Motors’ investment strategy has generated a $17.1 billion surplus in 2007 in its $101 billion U.S. pension fund portfolio, a $35 billion reversal from its $17.8 billion of underfunding.”

Comment by Steve S.

I read that Ford is actually in pretty good shape-maybe in part due to their ex-Boeing CEO ? Congress and Wall St. have been living in a glass house for years (at least 8, per the build-up of the current meltdown)-they should talk about Detroit mismangement-seems there’s always a lot of that going around in this country- some would even say Musk (and his board) is an example. As for diehard red state Repub. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama- he who said that Detroit is a mismanaged dinosaur that should be allowed to fail, I say: ditto , and then some, for your “business” called congress, and Wall too , good buddy- 10/4 that- come back!? Consider also the fact that these foreign car companies make cars in Alabama: Toyota, Honda,Hyundai and Mercedes.Maybe THIS is tainting Shelby’s vision, perhaps- on the theory of “what’s bad for Detroit is good for Alabama” !? Shelby is a perfect example of the “not look past your own nose and narrow, dumbed-down self-interests” attitude of red state America. He also is an example , per wikipedia, in that on an environmental scale of 0 to 15 (15 being best)developed by a republican environ. advocacy group , Shelby’s rating is 0. But- he’s been in congress since 1978, so it’s obvious that his nice job is perfectly safe-while he smuggly toys with destroying millions of other people’s livelihoods/lives. Also, if Shelby ever does get “unelected”, you can bet (your back forty mule) that his backers over all those years will find him a nice, plush, lifetime new job somewhere in the Alabama private sector,top of the food chain variety no less.

Comment by T.J.

This sounds promising for RE projects in California:

http://greenwombat.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/11/18/forget-the-recession-california-goes-for-the-green/

Comment by Chris Harvey

It took Thomas Friedman of the N.Y. Times awhile, but he finally “sees it my way” ™ , per editorial today: “…If you are going to fight a global financial panic like this, you have to go at it with overwhelming force-an overwhelming stimulus that gets people shopping again and an overwhelming recapitalization of the banking system that gets it lending again… no it’s not fair (rescuing some of the culprits as well as the innocent bystanders)…but fairness is not on the menu anymore. We’ll deal with that later. Right now we need to throw everything we can at this problem to make sure this recession doesn’t spiral down into a depression. This is no time for half measures.” You’re late, Friedman- but better that than never.

Comment by TJ

This is also good news for the RE movement:

Comment by Chris Harvey

It must be good news, proving that California has lots of money after all the complaining.

So people paying $100,000 are going to collect $5000 from the rest of us?

We have done this song before, but the inevitability that coal will power the electric cars sank in again when I revisited solar for my house. I had heard that manufacturing cost of cadmium telluride was nearing $1 per watt, so once again I tried. A preliminary result showed a staggering installation cost for not a lot of peak power.

My house is in Sunnyvale CA, and where could one find a more likely place to get energy from the sun? Well First Solar’s California installer, Solar City, rejected me because of “nearby trees” which they wanted me to know might disappoint me when it came to getting power out of the system.

I have been carefully cultivating those trees, along with help from the city, for 25 years so as to give my house an efficient winter time solar heating and summer time non-heating benefits. They now boot me out of the program because I might lose a few early morning hours on the relevant part of my roof.

All of this is to point out that things are never quite as simple as they seem.

So my electric car will, unarguably, be coal powered.

Comment by Jim Bullis

Jim,

I’m sorry to disappoint you, but in Sunnyvale California you car will not be coal powered. Hydro, nuclear, geothermal, and a lot of natural gas and some oil (a lot of the plants can shift between natural gas and oil based on price, although not the gas turbines that are used for peaking plants). Not coal, though. And if you charge it at night, it will be a lot less natural gas and more of the rest of the mix.

Steve

Comment by Steve Uhlir

Jim- there is a solar panel company called Solyndra that makes panels that capture diffuse/scattered solar from whatever direction, can be flat on roof or whatever -check out website. Ariz. senator Jon Kyl said on PBS that Detroit has problems re. costs, management, etc. such that it would be better to go bankrupt to reorganize. Oh yeah ?- has he checked his company – “Fed. Govt., Inc.”- lately ?- those guys REALLY deserve to go down that path. Also-then why not have let all of the financial bailed -out companies , like AIG go bankrupt too ? No- that would have been “too disastrous”. Guess what: what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, so just bail out Detroit from something your Fed. Govt., Inc. more than half caused and get it over with, Kyl. Detroit does make some nice cars- I like the Ford Flex-especially with sunroof (but as usual interior could be a little more interesting).The new 2009 Mustang has been tweaked a little- one nest option is a total glass roof (photo on website). They should have a further option to make front part operable. The upcoming Ford Fiesta is also quite nice for a small sedan. The GM Volt could be more interesting, but it isn’t bad. The Buick Enclave is nice too, but out of my price range. Once Detroit is rid of their legacy costs-by 2009-10, then we’ll be talking. Any car company could do nice designs, if they focus on that and turn the designers loose-so that’s all equalized. Actually I think a lot of Toyota cars are boring (like, you’d think somehow they could have made the Prius nicer looking and still have the CD value)- and same for BMW, and Porsche hasn’t really changed their design tune in a long time-the Cayman is nice, Boxster o.k., but kind of dated by now. Porsche’s other designs sure ain’t worth the bucks-not enough design bang for the buck there.

Comment by TJ

TJ, so what do you think of the Porsche 911 coupe? It’s been in continuous production with a virtually identical body style for well over forty years, as the mainstay of a very successful and prosperous company. They now own over half of VW, and that news caused VW stock to skyrocket in value.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve Uhlir,

You misunderstand. I am not happy about the coal situation. If you are right, I am happy.

But I am a skeptical person. Maybe just realistic. So I would like to know where you get your power production data. PGE does not respond to my request. I have looked for it on the web without success. I can’t figure out who to ask at CARB or California Energy Commission.

Also trying to be a good analyst, I would rather not guess or hypothecate as if I knew what I was talking about. I have looked at real data, though not from our own state, on the total power production, hour by hour for all types of electric generation. It happens to be from the Province of Ontario, and they put it all on the IESO website. See: http://reports.ieso.ca/public/GenOutputCapability/PUB_GenOutputCapability_20080916.xml. Of course this is not California, but it is applicable information about how power systems work.

I have studied this quite a lot, and have tentatively concluded that Ontario which has surplus hydro at night can respond to an incremental load with very clean power. When water is fully used, they will cut back on selling power to Quebec at night for less than coal power prices and continue to power electric vehicles. Great, expect Quebec will then start burning more coal. (The reason they sell power to Quebec at night is that Quebec has storage capacity, which I think means either they use less of their own water at night, saving it for the day, or they pump water up into reservoirs.) When they ultimately run low on hydro in Ontario, I conclude they will undoubtedly add coal to the fires already burning in their huge coal facilities, which run at night at about one quarter of capacity, since this is the economically sensible choice.

To the extent that they have combined cycle natural gas capacity, and subject to the price of natural gas, they might bring that on line.

Don’t be misled by the cogeneration facilities that use natural gas, since this is a way to make natural gas competitive. They are running full tilt as things stand, so they will not respond to incremental loads.

All their nuclear facilities crank full on day and night and there is no more left to do for incremental loads.

To be sure, Ontario, like California, has politicians mucking around in the business. There is a subsidized activity to build a combined cycle natural gas facility which will be charged to ratepayers or taxpayers.

PGE charged me $6.95 on my last bill for “public programs.” I gather this is to pay for rebates for other people. At this level, it does not really matter, but the nonsense is that if there is significant scale to it so that these pretend clean things matter, the public programs charge will have to be huge.

I would be glad to hear differing conclusions, and would certainly be very interested in real California data. (Please alert me on email at jim@miastrada.com if you find it. Anybody. Otherwise I will check back here when I think of it.)

Comment by Jim Bullis

Steve Uhlir,
I neglected to say that some of my conclusions were based on information from “Canadian Engineer” with whom I had a series of discussions on the Economist magazine site.

On the day I analyzed, Sept 16,2008 the entire wind production came up to just about 15% of capacity. I presume that capacity means maximum rated output. This corellates rather well with my observations of California production, which is based on driving over Altamont pass, which is perhaps the best place in the world for wind power. But Boone should take a look at real data when he promotes his wind farms.

Comment by jim@miastrada.com

Jim,

I don’t know whether you’ve seen this, or whether it helps alleviate some of your concerns about how your electricity is generated, but I hope that it helps…

http://www.pge.com/myhome/edusafety/systemworks/electric/energymix/

All the best,

Chris H.

Comment by Chris Harvey

(Not so) clean coal, and CC&S, revisited:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-dorner/brian-williams-clean-coal_b_144764.html

Comment by Chris Harvey

Steve U. and Chris, thanks for the California electric power source information. I tried and failed to find it recently, but I did learn that the US as a nation gets less than half of its electric power from coal. Another interesting fact is that despite all the talk about France getting around 80% of its electric power from nuclear, the US leads the world in nuclear electric power. It adds up to only around 20% for us because our total power use is much greater.

Comment by Steve S.

Chris Harvey’s post has a very good link to the overall PG&E generation mix, so there is nothing for me to add to that.

Note that it is very important to know who your electric supplier is. If you live in Santa Clara, you get your electricity from the Santa Clara electric utility. They get to buy power from federal hydro generation, which is why Santa Clara rates are lower than PG&E, and the energy source mix is different. Similarly, Palo Alto has their own electric utility and their power mix again has a lot of federal hydro.

Southern California Edison buys a significant amount of power from Arizona and a fair amount of that comes from the coal plant at four-corners so, unfortunately, you can not take the PG&E mix and assume it applies to all of California. Sorry, I don’t have a reference for the specifics on this although I’d look for it either on the SCE website or the PUC website (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/puc/ ).

Comment by Steve Uhlir

U.S. gets 49% of its electric power from coal , as of 2006- per U.S. Energy Information Admin. (EIA website). The next highest power source is natural gas at 20%, then nuclear at 19%. This accounts for “coal trains miles long” always on the tracks. Steve- Porsche has a good design deal with the 911’s “tweaking of the same basic design”, while other car companies have to generate whole new designs often. The Cayman has more personality, and it’s cheaper- that’s my favorite Porsche. Talk in congress about “dinosaur Detroit, mismanagement and high worker pay” ignores the fact that the U.S. institution in need most of reorganization thru bankruptcy is the fed. govt. For one example, a couple of years ago CBS’ “60 Minutes” had a story on the head cost watchdog guy in the defense dept.- since retired (in disgust as it were). He said for years that the GAO has given up in trying to track and even get an AMOUNT on the billions of dollars “gone missing/unaccounted for” each year. So: everyone in congress is overpaid, many deserve to lose their jobs due to incompetence. They have full govt. paid health care, of course-but they should lose this-like the rest of the country. Then every govt. agency should by rights declare bankruptcy so that outside court appointed investigators and accountants can FINALLY find out “where all the missing money went and is going” and can also finally force “restructuring into a sustainable business model” (the same knock against Detroit), while selling off hopelessly inefficient, messed up components. What’s good for the rather large sized Detroit goose is good for the fed. govt. Godzilla sized gander.

Comment by TJ

Chris Harvey, thanks for the PGE link.

Some of us can count our fuel energy usage at about twice our car energy usage instead of three times for a 33% reduction. And the natural gas puts out less CO2 per BTU provided. So on natural gas, we are at about half the CO2 compared with coal.

The current PGE mix seems to have a lot more natural gas than when I last looked. Natural gas is somewhat cheaper now, so this could explain the current shift. Will it last?

Some observations relative to the PGE page are: (1) If PGE is so good and I know the Pacific Northwest has lots of hydro, the rest of the country must be using substantially more than 50% coal. (2) Unlike the Ontario data, where all producers are listed, hour by hour, we can not tell from PGE’s summary what happens at night. (3) They kind of duck the question of how much they buy on the spot market, and let us assume their assumption of the coal percentage is valid.

But I really am more interested in national data, especially in light of the big shift to plug-in by Detroit, as their published plan indicates. I think this large scale situation will not look so good. If there is a national cap and trade that makes coal more expensive, natural gas will take more of the load, and this demand will change the balance for all.

Does anyone know why geothermal is renewable? Isn’t it more like a mine, where you eventually use up the heat?

Martin sez:

Geothermal gets used up kind of like how solar gets used up – the earth’s core will eventually cool, and the sun will eventually consume itself. We had better have found a new home by then :-)

Comment by Jim Bullis

Jim-no, since the earth’s core is molten-it’s hot down there- you’d have to ask a geologist but I think it will remain just as hot for a few billion more years. As a side note: all the Hawaiian islands were formed from the same lava source outlet on the sea bed. What happened was (and is) as the crust moves per (”tectonic plate drift”) another island is formed. The Big Island of Hawaii is the latest, but it has drifted from the main lava source spot (although branches of this still make for lava eruptions, only on the Big Island) and a new Hawaiian island is now growing under the waves off shore of the Big Island- to surface in the few thousand years. The older Hawaiian islands are smaller than the big island due to erosion. Without lava we wouldn’t be here-they say that when Mars’ molten core cooled (maybe since it’s half the diameter of earth ?) Mars lost it’s magnetic field-which is supposedly maintained by the swirl of lava. Without a magnetic field, in time the solar wind from the sun blew Mars’ atmosphere away-without lava the same would happen on earth. Also, without Jupiter blocking asteroids (and comets ?) from hitting earth more frequently, we wouldn’t be here either -and if it weren’t for bacteria making oxygen over eons we never would have been either. I wonder, with huge mass use of geothermal all over the earth, if there might be a very slight core cool down-but the hot water would be pumped backed down, so the loss would be minimized. A geologist would probably say that even with huge geothermal use there would be like zero cool down. Until recently I never knew of the huge U.S. geothermal potential- no doubt thanks a lot to the fossil fuel peddler’s influence.

Comment by TJ

TJ,

I am talking about the practical limitations on getting to the heat. We know, (1) there are not many places where access is even possible, and (2) in California all of our electricity should come from this source if it is truly abundant.

My conjecture is that a drill hole has to be created and water pumped down such that steam is created. After a while the hot stuff near the bottom of the hole gets cooled and another drill hole has to be created near by.

The cost is the repeated drilling and then finding places where it is practical to drill.

So something is not complete in the story.

But to add to my previous about California natural gas use to produce electricity, I just remembered that Calpine built peaking facilities under contract to the state. The important question would be, “Who paid for this?”

Comment by Jim Bullis

We haven’t heard from Martin since November 3rd. I hope he’s OK.

Anybody heard what he’s up to?

Martin sez:

Sorry – I have been swamped with this and that. Secret projects, busted pool filter, etc.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Martin has been very busy fixing the filter system on the hot tub. This took all last weekend. He has a very long list of other chores he needs to get done, including installing shelving in our closets.

Comment by Carolyn

I’m just happy to hear that everything is OK :)

Did the ground squirrels ever come back?

Comment by Chris Harvey

Thanks for the update Carolyn and Martin. We get worried when we don’t hear from at least one of you two!

Comment by Darrel Holmquist

What, me worry ? I’m not happy ’cause everything definitely isn’t o.k. I wonder if the ground sloths have come back. Recent news sez it is now possible to bring the wooly mammoths back. Now someone has to bring the economy back. Not enough was done, not enough is being done. Many in congress think Detroit should go bankrupt-”it would be the best thing”. Too bad the fed. govt. can’t go bankrupt- they’re normally more than twice as bad as Detroit at their business, and now they’re even worse.

Comment by TJ

If anyone wants more proof of the rodent still in the White House, pull up google search of “Bush’s land mines for Obama” from L.A. Times-and the rodent still has plenty of days left to plant more mines.

Comment by TJ

Ground squirrel update: A pair of Cooper’s Hawks moved into one of our oak trees. We also had a tremendous breeding season for coyotes. On top of that, we have the world’s largest bobcat living in our neighborhood. The thing looks like a mountain lion with his tail bobbed. Between all of these predators, the ground squirrels seem to be missing, at least out of our yard. By the way, our cats do not go outside!

Comment by Carolyn

That’s because the cats aren’t big enough- you need to get a matched a set of Cheetahs. Unless the neighbors have a problem with that, in which case it’s on to Africa !- (which is lovely this time of year they say- or anytime, for that matter)- yes, small price to pay for luxury !

Comment by TJ

Wonder what Lee Iacocca-and Martin- would say re. the Detroit bailout question ?

Comment by TJ

Carolyn,

thanks for the update on the ground squirrels…

“Sometimes it’s a hard world for the little things”
H.I. McDunnough, Raising Arizona, 1987

T.J.,

funny you should mention Lee Iacocca and the bail out. He just made a recorded presentation for the celebration of the Minivan’s 25th Anniversary, and I believe he mentioned the bailout for the Detroit 3. I can’t seem to find a link to it online, but it was on BNN’s “Car Business” earlier tonight. Here’s a news story about it:

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=980144

Comment by Chris Harvey

Hey- speaking of Lee Iacocca- he who also gave us the Mustang- I was just on his website, typing a long e-mail to him. He wrote that book that I read :” Where Have All the Leaders Gone ?” I told him it could have been subtitled “It’s the Management, Stupid !” or: “It’s the Stupid Management, Stupid!” After I sent the e-mail a message came up saying: ” I love hearing what people like you have to say- thanks for contacting me !” “People like me”, Lee?-You talkin’ to me Lee? Are YOU talking to ME !? Well, I don’t see anyone else typing here (except for Robert De Niro, that is)- you must be talkin’ to me !” (Sorry, I lived in N.Y.C. for awhile as a kid- it’s a New Yocik thing, I’m afraid). Hey: Yo, I’d e-mail Lee if I wuz youse other guys- I think he’s one of us.

Comment by TJ

Good article on D3 bailout:

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081121.wcover1121/GIStory/

Comment by Chris Harvey

The governor of Oregon seems aggressive in trying to bring in green cars soon. The most interesting one is the BYD. It’s primarily a battery company (30% of the world’s lithium ion cell phone batteries) but also a leading car manufacturer, with 130,000 employees. An 80 mile electric PHV sedan in the $20,000+ range will soon go on the market in China and maybe in the US, followed in 2009 by a pure electric sedan, says this article:
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/11/kulongoski_lobbies_to_bring_ch.html

A few Japanese companies may someday get around to selling plug in vehicles in Oregon too, according to this:
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/11/nissantoyota_locked_in_race_to.html

By the way, $25 billion would buy a million $25,000 cars, but it might not be enough to put a Volt into a showroom within two years.

Comment by Steve S.

It looks like Martin’s car is back at TM’s Menlo Park store, perhaps for the transmission upgrade.

http://flickr.com/photos/sfyoshi/3051135660/in/set-72157609692711531/

Comment by Chris Harvey

I think everyone working for GM, Ford, Chrysler- from CEO’s to janitors- should work for like 15% (or more) less than U.S. foreign autoworkers, with a built-in yearly profit sharing plan for everyone down the line if they can turn things around. Then they should all get a pride in their product, like , say BMW has in their culture. Wonder if Lee Iacocca would agree ? Of course try to sell that concept in the U.S. of today, or any day over decades. I like William Clay Ford and gov. Arnie’s concept of taking no pay. Congress asked the auto CEO’s if they’d work for a dollar a year till they turned the companies around- only the Chrysler CEO said yes . I would have thought the ex- Boeing guy at Ford would have gone for this. “Yah know, what’s with these guys anyway ?!” But then the same applies to congress members- especially all 100 senators (or those who are still around) who voted in 2000 for the key deregulation provision that allowed the meltdown to happen (as profiled on CBS’s “60 Minutes” a couple of weeks ago)- and not forgetting all the Wall St. CEO’s responsible. As usual, only the avg. American (and foreigner) gets hurt critically . A “Time” magazine article online said that a financial expert sees job losses being longer term this time, based on the fact that the time it is taking people now to find another job is longer than in past recessions he studied. Others are worried about the coming 2 months of nothing really happening until Obama comes in-which was similar to Hoover- to- Roosevelt bad timing (but that was worse since Roosevelt back then didn’t come in till march). I still think it’s funny that the key deregulation allowing all this to happen came in with Bush very late in 2000 and the blowup just happens to happen just as Bush leaves- with no one being in charge, since they say that treasury sec. Paulson has basically quit already. Some pundits have said that the thing to do is for Bush to appoint the new guy that Obama just said was going to be his treasury head. But fat chance,no ? -Bush is too busy issuing exec. orders as fast as he can that are pro fossil fuel companies and every other buddy of his, and anti- environmental. Besides, that move would be good for the country -and he specializes almost exclusively in “bad for the country” .

Comment by TJ

TJ, although we aren’t often on the same page with respect to style, here’s a fun article criticizing unfortunate automotive styling makeovers. To look at another car, click the appropriate box immediately above the photos.

I agree that the makeover is worse with all but one, with which I disagree strongly because it fixes one of the most awful styling features ever. Can you guess which one? What are your picks?

Comment by Steve S.

And here’s the link: http://www.nextautos.com/ten-cars-that-looked-better-before-their-makeovers

Comment by Steve S.

Steve- the new Scion XB is definitely nicer. I think the VW is nicer too, but ditch the chrome.

Comment by T.J.

Martin,

congratulations! It appears that your Roadster has captured the attention of Porsche (as well as GM). Autoblog Green is reporting that Porsche has put a deposit down to purchase a Tesla Roadster, presumably to reverse engineer the drivetrain and ESS. It is a testament to the groundbreaking engineering work that you and early employees at TM did, that one of the world’s foremost sportscar design and manufacturing companies is interested in your technology. As long as they are willing to license that technology, rather than steal it, I see this as good news.

BTW, I’m pretty sure that they are not buying the car to study the door sill and headlights… :)

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/11/25/porsche-places-order-for-tesla-roadster/#comments

Martin sez:

You don’t think they are planning to study the electric door latches, do you?

Comment by Chris Harvey

Ohhh, right, the electric door latches… I forgot about those… :)

Comment by Chris Harvey

The massive-stimulus/massive-bailout crowd seems positively giddy with the unprecedented economic interventions that have been arranged in recent weeks. But the lesson to have been learned from the Great Depression wasn’t that waiting too long to intervene caused bigger problems than jumping in early; it was that big interventions, whenever attempted, only make the problem worse and cause it to last longer than it otherwise might.

What is different today than in the 1920s is that the government is so thoroughly entwined with the economy, and has been intervening in a substantial way for decades. Those earlier interventions are having their predictable consequences (as well as numerous UNpredictable and thus unforeseen ones), and we, in our folly, think that more of the gasoline used to start the fire will now quench it.

Those who advocate for true free markets, not this “mixed economy” that only seems free in comparison with that of the old Soviet Union, have been predicting problems such as we see today for quite a few years, and the predictions became more urgent and dire in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. If you care, you can go back in the published recod and read all about it. The people who have been in charge, who are in charge now, and who will be in charge with the new President, are among those who dismissed the predictions. Why they get to keep the keys to the car they so thoroughly ran into a tree is beyond me. Anyone who endorses their continued reign and who supports greater and more forceful intervention into the economy is part of the problem, not part of the solution. Why not try the prescriptions recommended by the guys who saw all this coming?

Comment by James Anderson Merritt

TJ, I was relieved to see the bent and broken look of the Viper profile go into the dustbin of ignominy. To my eye the new xB is pretentiously ugly instead of simple, practical, lightweight ugly. The guys responsible for the grilles of recent VWs should join that wretched little man who’s been ruining BMWs, to do a makeover on the Aztek in an attempt to displace the Citroen Ami 6 from its long-held title of the world’s ugliest production automobile ever (it even made the French gag).

Comment by Steve S.

On the subject of Porsche, here’s a comment I wrote to a friend:

A bizarre economic twist was Porsche briefly becoming the world’s richest corporation after the word got out that it had stealthily bought up a controlling interest in VW. VW stock tripled in price, or experienced some such multiplier, but settled down to a much higher value than before. Porsche recently offered a comment that they enjoyed making a quick billion dollars or two out of their recent financial maneuverings, but that wasn’t the reason they did it. They wanted to have available the giant engineering resources of a large company for developing technological trends, and were concerned that VW might be sold off by management to a large consortium. Somewhere I read about an economic principle: when someone says they weren’t doing something for the money, they were doing it for the money.

A lot of people think that Porsche is primarily a company of financial genius rather than a car company. They certainly profit a lot more from their investments than from cars.

Comment by Steve S.

Chris, speaking of bizarre economic twists, a while back you complimented me on being honest enough to admit that I was clueless about how the price of oil is determined, even after I read a Wiki article on the subject. I may have said that I believed that OPEC no longer had that power.

Do you know of anyone who knew enough to predict the sudden reduction of prices to less than half of their previous value?

Have you been following that situation? What are you hearing? Based on no information, my initial cynical wild guess was that prices would go back up after the election. After that was proven false, my next wild guess in that vein was that the oil companies are perhaps concerned that since Cheney and Rove will no longer be running the show, the new administration may be inclined to punish and/or regulate the oil companies based on their outrageous profiteering. Cheap gasoline may take some of the wind out of their sails. It may also tend to reduce the pressure to provide economic incentives to producers and users of alternative vehicles and energy sources.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve,

it’s funny that your wild guess about oil prices after the election was the same as mine. I told my wife that the price of oil would increase starting Nov. 5th. Of course, I was wrong… oh well.

Supposedly the drop in the price of oil has been caused by “demand destruction”, i.e. high prices cause consumers to buy less, and the reduced demand results in lower prices. I don’t know how much I believe this explanation, as I tend to think that most oil consumption is not discretionary. People buy gasoline, or diesel, because they need to get to work, etc., and even though they may try to reduce usage (as I did) when prices are high, I just don’t see the overall demand dropping sufficiently to cause a 60%+ drop in oil price.

I think that your last point is quite possibly correct. The fossil fuel industry may be trying to pull the rug out from under the feet of the newly invigorated RE & alt-tran industries. If this is the case, it will be interesting to see how long they (the fossil fuel industry) can keep oil prices low, as I’m sure you will agree that in the long term, the trend in oil prices is upwards.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Oil prices are not low.

The price changes are pretty consistent. They always take at least two steps forward and one step back. It’s a cycle that the public buys every time. The first rise brings screaming and yelling then when it drops a collective sigh of relief -even though the net result is still a major increase.

Overall they will keep it “low” for awhile now while the new administration tries to enact programs to get us off oil. I bet it even drops more to kill new legislation attempts. Bill Clinton said something like this recently on the campaign trail.

Comment by vfx

Steve S.

Porsche never said they weren’t doing it for the money. They announced that the short term money for nothing pop in stock prices was nice, but they were in it for the long term multi-billion dollar opportunities which controlling their own destiny with needed technologies in a rapidly changing market would provide them vs knowing ultimately that they would lose their company to one of the consortiums that they project would soon buy out Volkswagen.

Comment by Jeff Holman

vfx, interesting theory on oil prices. You almost lost me with your lead sentence. I assumed it was just rhetoric, because of reading this from Wiki: On November 20, 2008, oil was trading at $49 a barrel, one third of the peak price reached four months earlier.

I saw you got some ink at AutoBlogGreen for pointing out the message posted recently here by Albert Lam, a former CEO of Lotus who is now associated with Zap and related businesses. Good work! I initially thought the post by Lam was a fake because of its poor command of english, before I learned that a Malaysian concern has a controlling interest in Lotus. Incidentally, GM once owned Lotus, but sold it in another era of near GM bankruptcy around 1993. If that hadn’t happened, it would have made the Tesla story more interesting.

Comment by Steve S.

Chris, thanks for your reply. I completely agree. By the way, the price vs. year Wiki chart at a search for “oil price” is most impressive.

I’m giving my used but perfect copy of “The Car That Could” (which happened to be signed by the author, Michael Shnayerson) a careful read. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in this stuff! It bogs down a little in the second part of the first half with the details of the working lives of engineers and managers at GM, but it’s full of amazing stories, largely about people in the Who Killed movie. All the basic EV and environmental information was known and discussed back in the middle nineties, and the overall story is much richer than I imagined.

Comment by Steve S.

Steve-yeah, the old Viper was kind of funky, I like the new Scion “for what it is”. The new Ford Flex, “another boxy design rendition”, is nice too-but $10,000 too expensive-with a price at around $18,000 now they’d be talking. Here’s a neat transportation design to check out: go to the S.S. United States Foundation website and the S.S. United States Conservancy website. That design icon is plain lucky to have not been scrapped. I’d green that ship to the max.: Solyndra solar, pop-up/tilt up wind turbines for in -port power, run on algae bio-fuel , and then turn the ship in an eco/expedition style cruise ship in JV with The Cousteau Society. This type of cruising is now only high end: like Lindblad Cruises in Assoc. with the National Geographic Society (check out their small ships on website-could/would get seasick on those in the rough seas of Cape Horn & Cape of Good Hope where some go)- need a bigger ship like the S.S. United States to run such cruises “for the rest of us”. When I was a kid in N.Y.C. I went on the United States when it was in port (they let visitors on)-still got a collection of plastic United States Lines swizzle sticks, with eagles on top-in red and blue. The ship has a great power to weight ratio (top speed of over 50 mph-still holds westbound Atlantic Ocean crossing speed record). The entire superstructure is aluminum-2000 tons of it.

Comment by TJ

TJ, thanks for the tip on the S. S. U. S. I’m all for saving and restoring landmark creations of the past. It’s a crime that so many historic buildings, and modern electric cars, have been destroyed for no good reason.

I wasn’t aware that so much aluminum (and no wood) was involved in the big U’s construction, which is most admirable, but I’m glad they didn’t go forward with the plan to build an aluminum grand piano. God knows what that would have sounded like.

It’s too bad a foreign company owns the big U and hasn’t shown much interest in getting it back in shape.

As an engineer who was once very interested in sailboat design, I was startled by the claim of 50 mph top speed. That goes against the prevailing wisdom of the “wave drag barrier” which severely limits the top speed of heavy displacement boats. Faster boats have to get up on top of the water, or knife through it like catamarans (which can make smaller, faster and more comfortable passenger ships than liners).

Wave drag varies as the square root of the waterline length, so a 4000 ft long ship should be able to be designed to go around 80 mph, and a 250 ft. long ship should be limited to around 20 mph.

Here’s an excerpt from a Wiki article:

The maximum speed of the United States was deliberately exaggerated, and kept obscure for many years. An impossible value of 43 knots (49 mph) was leaked to reporters by engineers after the first speed trial.[2] The actual top speed — 38.3 knots (44.1 mph) — was not revealed until 1977.

Comment by Steve S.

Filmmaker Chris Paine talks about his new Tesla on his blog: http://revengeoftheelectriccar.com/

John Wayland borrowed A123 batteries from Killacycle, and his old Datsun 1200 sedan EV conversion went 11.50 and 110 mph for a street legal electric quarter mile record, further down the page.

Back in the 90s, Stan Ovshinsky sneaked one of his NiMH battery packs to GM engineers, who regeared an EV-1, took off the rearview mirrors, and set an electric car speed record of 183 mph. Who’ll be first to work up a higher gear for a Tesla and try it at the lakes and Bonneville?

Comment by Steve S.

That Shai Agassi link works if you select in on the left of the Google video page, but this one is more direct: http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=+%22shai+agassi+on+electric+car%22&__q=&btnG=Search+Videos&lr=&dur=&st=&dis_ft=&so=0&num=10#

Comment by Steve S.

Hey, does anybody have a subscription to “Nature”? The current issue (NPI) has a cover story on plug-in vehicles and the next generation of Li ion cells.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v456/n7221/covers/

Comment by Chris Harvey

I can not restrain myself from commenting on the Agassi stuff.

The real joke is that “Better Place” would be “better” if the promoters took a class in physics and did not cut the lectures on thermodynamics. Some particular attention should be given to the Second Law Thermodynamics.

There is another law that should be recognized which is that promoters and venture capitalists do not invest time and money without expecting large paybacks.

Electricity is a carrier of energy. Wires and batteries are needed. But also needed are sources. In the present power generating mix in the United States, coal will be the most likely fuel used to respond to increased demand of electric cars. If natural gas stays at its present price, it will be used if government forces ratepayers to subsidize usage of natural gas. But even if the more efficient of the natural gas plants are tapped as the incremental suppliers, there is still a huge amount of heat thrown away by such power plants, and this is purely wasted energy.

I find it particularly amazing that Israel, which relies heavily on coal to make electricity, would be a place that Better Place was sold. I read that they have a potential deal with Egypt to provide natural gas, and sometime in the future this might turn into a natural gas fired power infrastructure. Maybe the solar potential is big there, but I would think it would be better to wait for that to develop a little more before selling battery stations all over the place.

Some years ago a leading venture capitalist told me that they need to see 4-5 times their money back in 4-5 years. Put this in the cost of electric energy and then see how things look. Venture capitalists should look carefully at the wishful thinking in the business plan of “Better Place.” It won’t be much better for a long time.

Of course, there is always the “sustainable” sources switch. So then add the cost of large scale, unsubsidized solar, wind, etc. and “Better Place” looks like a big con game, which will effectively mine government subsidies (and rate payer subsidies) and money from foolish venture capitalists as long as it can get away with it.

Comment by Jim Bullis

Steve-there was an asterisk on the S.S. US website (I believe it was) that said that more recent info. put the ship speed at “over 50 mph”. The ship has four propellers and the engines, they said, are more powerful than those on battleships. Actually the ship is half owned by the U.S. Company “Apollo Equity Management of N.Y. (they bought 50% of Norwegian Cruise lInes in 2007). NCL originally bought the ship to use in Hawaii since there is some old U.S. regulation requiring a “U.S. built and registered ship to be used there “- but looks like the Hawaii market is in the doldrums- or maybe they changed the regs. too(?). If you want to see one perfect “eco/expedition” tour route the ship could take, go to Lindblad Cruise Lines site and look at their Antarctica Cruise- look at route map: from Chile/Cape Horn to Antarctica, then various islands and ending up at Cape of Good Hope, S. Africa- but cost is $18,000-$30,000 on small ships no less-”minor problem”. With the S.S. United States totally redone as the greenest cruise ship on the planet (per “Extreme Makeover-Green Ship Edition”), and so costing less to operate, and with its higher passenger volume, you could knock that price way down. Also, at some point in the Lindbald Cruise, on those small ships, people are going to get seasick- not a problem with the S.S. U.S.-probably. I found a link to the guy at Norwegian Cruise Lines to get in touch with re. the ship its: ssunitedstates@ncl.com-if you want to tell them to “green their ride / ship” too. If I were them I’d also JV with The Cousteau Society, the same as Lindblad JV’s with The National Geographic Society-but you could have it so that there could be side excursions, lectures, etc. by The Cousteau Society that people would pay more for- so that , if they wanted, they could keep tour cost lower. Also, as an “eco/expedition” type ship , the S.S. United States wouldn’t need the full range of glitz of your typical ship and it could offer really small cabins-like 9′-10′ wide, with bunk beds-that way students and others on a small budget could go. Also, if you go single on a cruise, the cruise lines charge you the double occupancy rate-since their cabins are set up for two people. Mini cabins with bunk beds would allow single people not to have to pay double. I e-mailed NCL with the whole “green your ship” deal ( that I could think of): Solyndra solar, tilt-up/pop-up wind turbines, Ship Kite of Ship Sail Co. tech. (or “wind blade” type rigid “sail masts” even, as on some high end yachts) , LED lights and skylights throughout, max. SEER HVAC systems, algae bio-fuel made at the dock in Philadelphia-making green jobs there, with extra fuel sold to guys like Richard Branson- who’s using bio-fuel it in his planes and looking onto algae fuel himself (per wikipedia on bio-fuel, I believe it was). “Green” the ship at the nearby Philadelphia Naval Yard-more green jobs-maybe govt.. incentives available for this and the algae fuel plant. With Obama in and when the economy fully comes back in a year or two, then this would fit right in with what’s happening- “all things green in the world” is just going to get bigger, and no going back. The final bottom line is that those types who would like to go on an “eco/expedition ” type cruise would dig going on a real size ship, that is also the greenest afloat-and is also a classic, “floating legend, nothing like it anywhere” design.

Comment by TJ

Steve-I wonder if the S.S. U.S. steam turbines are suitable for modern use. Most cruise ships use gas turbines- the large ship I was on in Sept.-slightly shorter and less wide than the United States (Celebrity Millenium-built in 2000) had a spare gas turbine on display on the bottom deck (for emergency installation or parts use) it was no bigger than a big jet engine-ship is powered by two of them. Maybe S.S. U.S. engines are good by today’s standards, with some tweaking if necessary ? Said on some website that the ship almost has the power of a nuke aircraft carrier-like around “242,000 shaft H.P. ” Said that while the ship is about the same size as the Queen Mary, all the alum. used-and whatever else- gives it 30,000 tons less weight. Also came across an old graph on a website of “horsepower vs. knots”- the graph started going closer to vertical as knots increased, especially past 38 knots-so maybe wikipedia top speed figure right-but that’s still really moving for a big, regular ship, no ? Per a website I came across, Norwegian Cruise lines in 2007 did a survey of the ship and found it in good shape-and said that it had a future as a cruise ship-this statement was made to Popular Mechanics Mag. which did a story on the ship earlier this year. If I remember right, they bought the ship for $2.6 million -some people pay more than that for a house. The kicker is: it supposedly costs like $1000 per day for the dock berth.

Comment by TJ

TJ, I would guess that steam turbines built in the early fifties would be perfectly good. Nuclear ships use steam turbines; they just boil the water a different way.

I wouldn’t want to be on the ocean anywhere close to Antarctica without a compelling reason, because of the frequent extremely violent storms. Any size ship can be frozen into the ice, so one designed as an icebreaker would be somewhat advantageous.

I’m not a fan of biofuels, in part because the conventional ones have big problems and the radical ideas are unproven on a commercial scale. In fifty years or more they may be necessary for airliners and ships, but that’s something for people who are interested in them to think about. I have to confess that I can’t work up much excitement about cruise ships, in general. Cousteau used an advanced sailing ship for a lot of his adventures, as I recall. Incidentally, a lot of his sponsorship came from the environmentalist, sailor, and all-around great guy billionaire Ted Turner.

Sailboat cruising is idea of a green activity. For decades solar panels have been popular aboard to keep the batteries charged.

Here’s an idea I haven’t seen anything about for travel: Zeppelin-type vehicles powered by solar panels. Lots of area is available, and they can be designed to fly above most clouds. The conventional diesel motors would be a good backup. Since they don’t need power to generate lift, they need comparatively little. Eighty years ago or so it was an elegant and comfortable way to travel, with big sightseeing and comfort advantages over airliners. As I recall, they traveled at around 90 mph.

Comment by Steve S.

Misc.
ACP and the E Mini: http://www.acpropulsion.com/company/press-releases.php
Getting power from all those waves:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/renewableenergy/3535012/Ocean-currents-can-power-the-world-say-scientists.html
Site: http://www.vortexhydroenergy.com/

Steve, I always rave about “The Car That Could” a great book. I always tell people that it’s so deep about making the car that at the end of the book the car was just about to come out. So easy and fun to mentally write the next chapter(s). :)

Comment by vfx

Steve-check out google search on: “Zeppelin revival over skies of San Francisco” . Wonder if there’s a storm-free season in the Antarctic ? The Lindblad cruises just touch the tip of the continent nearest Chile. Yeah, Ted could have bought the S.S. U.S. with his pocket change-then he’d just have to have bought some lakefront property on ,say , Lake Superior and tie it up there-to avoid paying the $1000 per day parking fee. Maybe Ted could still buy it -and start “Ted’s Excellent Adventures Cruise Lines” – TEA for short (green TEA). He’s the biggest property owner in the U.S.-and plans to give all his land to environ. groups when he’s gone (maybe “The Nature Conservancy” ?). I’ve only been on one cruise. The food is great-but I skipped the fancy dining room jazz, with waiters and sub- waiters and sub-sub waiters. I went for the buffet-took it out on the fantail dining deck. Too many people overdressed and all of that (at least on my ship). I would like a more normal, casual environment-like on an eco-cruise. I remember The Cousteau advanced sailing ship- with two (or was it three ?) tall cylindrical “wind turbine sails”-I’ll have to try to find it with a google image search.

Comment by TJ

Steve-Ted’s got a website, I dropped him an e-mail about TEA-seems to me like perfect fit with his “Ted’s Montana Grill” buffalo burgers chain (TEA, burgers-it works for me). After all, is not Ted a “wild & crazy guy” ? ( among others).

Comment by TJ

Martin,
Have you read this?
“Switching Off
I have resigned my position with Tesla Motors due to some disagreements in strategy. I believe that in such a situation it’s best for a senior executive to part ways with the company so as to not get in the way.

I’ve stayed until now to help manage the transition, including recruiting a very strong successor to lead Sales, Marketing & Service going forward. I am sure he will do a great job.

Regardless of my personal decision, I think Tesla is an extraordinary company with extraordinary potential. There are a lot of great people there working hard to make a difference. I wish them all the best of luck and success in the future. They deserve it….”

http://sirycars.blogspot.com/2008/12/switching-off.html

Comment by vfx

vfx,

that’s interesting news. It must’ve been a pretty dramatic “disagreement in strategy” to cause DS to walk away from an executive position in a company that has the potential of becoming THE American car company. Maybe he just thinks that EM has finally gone off the deep end…, and he’s getting out while the going is good… Who knows? One thing though, it must’ve been on impulse, or under duress. A carefully planned transition would’ve involved a destination, at least one that wasn’t as vague as “exploring various opportunities that I find out there”.
Maybe TEG can shed some light on the situation.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Hey, it just occurred to me, 12 months have passed since Martin was…, errr, liberated. That means that the legal gag (non-disparagement), and requirement to declare all patents to TM have expired, right? Does this mean that Martin can open up a bit more about what he’s planning to do in the future?

Does it Martin? Or do you have to continue to maintain a certain discretion about your plans?

If it counts for anything, I’m very interested to know what sorts of things you plan to work on in the future, and I’m sure that lots of other people are interested too.

We’ve heard murmurs of interest in solid oxide fuel cells from various media outlets. Is that where you’re heading? Do you plan to stay within the realm of transportation, or are you thinking more about generation, storage & distribution of electrical power?

I don’t wish to seem pushy, or nosy, and I’m sure that you will share this information when you’re ready, so I guess what I’m asking is “Are you ready to tell us what you’re working on yet?” (besides the filter in the hot tub… ;) .

All the best,

Chris H.

Comment by Chris Harvey

Well, one thing Martin seems to be doing:
http://www.coulombtech.com/technicaladvisors.php

Very little privacy with the web these days.
……….
Must be an interesting story behind DS leaving, as it doesn’t seem to be to a specific job opportunity. Interesting statement, a lot between the lines.

Not to mention Elon’s version of the announcement:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Tesla-Motors-Names-New-Senior/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC389F5C-C55D-49A3-91E9-D2D107B6093B%7D

Tesla doesn’t seem like a very fun place to work these days; the whole culture/vision seems to have changed.
……………..
At least we have a president-elect who welcomes different viewpoints and debate before arriving at a decision.

Comment by kj

Siry didn’t leave over disagreements, but was , jah: terminated. For the money he must have made, he could agree with a lot. Yes- assuredly & shirley he could find a lot that was agreeable. Here’s what I find disagreeable (per Google news report today): college tuition fees have increased 439 % from 1982 to 2007, while median family income went up 147%. Student borrowing more than doubled in the last decade. Article said that this “trend” doesn’t bode well for the future of the country. Wonder what’s driving this – besides faculty salaries being too high ? I was amazed when local paper listed , like, the last 300 or so hires at UNLV, as an example of recent inflated govt. pay- at least 90% of hires, at any level, made +$100,000 per year. Something’s out of whack- fits right in with the rest of the country for the past few decades, no less. In case anyone wonders where Obama got his “tax break for the middle class” from, found this online from N.Y. times editorial by economist Jospeh Stiglitz ( Oct. 2006)- he’s talking about the low U.S. savings rate, the out of whack balance of payments with China, the low value of chinese currency vs. the dollar, etc. and how this can’t go on indefinitely : “There is one way out of this seeming impasse: expenditure cuts combined with an increase in taxes on upper income Americans and a reduction in taxes on lower income Americans”. Stiglitz was former chief economist at the World Bank- so these “marching orders” come from the top of the establishment.

Comment by TJ

vfx, thanks for pointing me to (finally) an update on the ACP site. I’ve known about The Car That Could for a long time (a chapter has been on the ACP site, I believe) and tried to buy it once. I also tried to track down a public library copy, without success. Your comments on the Tesla club site inspired me to get serious about owning the book.

Incidentally, I read somewhere (now forgotten) an account, probably by the same author, of taking a spare tire up into the hills to Cocconi for his CRX conversion. The guy subsequently went for a bicycle ride up into the same hills with Alan. Do you know aobut that one?

The stream – vortex – power plant idea isn’t very inspiring to me. It probably belongs on the ocean floor, swimming with the fishes. Which don’t need vortices to swim: their flexible tails can actually push against the water at a suitable angle to propel them forward. It’s too bad that the company couldn’t work buzz words like nano and plasma into their title along with vortex, to make it seem more techie.

TJ, thanks for the tip on the Z. F. Zeppelin rides! The new ones are only about a third the length of the big ones from the past, and hold only a dozen passengers, but I’m going to try to co-ordinate a ride with the next time I’m in the area, probabably for the Monterey prehistoric races. I’ve fantasized about that kind of travel for years.

Here’s an off-the-wall idea of what to do with the S. S. U. S.: anchor it in the gulf stream. Let the water move by it and provide power, instead of the other way around and wasting fuel. Install a lot of solar panels and wind turbines, and huge underwater propellors (instead of those silly vortex things that flop back and forth) to make it a 3-way power plant. The housing could be sold or rented for good bucks, and restaurants, etc. would generate income by serving their needs, and of interested tourists.

kj, thanks for the interesting links.

Comment by Steve S.

Martin, thanks for this info, good to know this :)

Comment by Van as Lin

I meant S.F. Zeppelin rides, for San Francisco, not Z.F. I also misspelled about. Not enough sleep.

Comment by Steve S.

I thought this was worth passing on.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/

It takes an interesting look at economics, energy and the environment as a inter-related topic.

Comment by Mark

Steve- I think that Brin and Page of Google should buy the S.S. U.S. as a company ship- yeah, like, they bought a Boeing 767 in 2005 as a 50 seat company plane-very Abercrombie & Kent. If you’re going to get a company yacht, I say get a REAL one. Yeah-Google could then fill it with company workers for vacation purposes, and floating conference/cruises-like the semi-annual Al Gore SeaGreen Cruise Confab Fest, cruising the Gulf Stream from Florida to Europe- Al would approve of the route since with the Gulf Stream running at 3.9 knots, this will be an apropos fuel saving/environ. friendly cruise route -you’ll save almost 1/4 on “Algore” Brand ™ Algae bio-fuel, while being able to leave the stream for stops at places like Savannah, Bahamas, Bermuda, New England, Newfoundland, Ireland (where I think the stream hits europe) & England. Poifect !

Comment by TJ

TJ, my choice for corporate yacht is Endeavor on this list: http://www.jclass.com/charter.asp

It’s powered by a clean energy source.

One of my heroes, Elizabeth Meyer, bought the 1934 130 foot America’s Cup racing sailboat, stripped and rotting in the mud in England. All the boats of that class were once presumed gone forever, although it turned out that one, Shamrock, had been extensively modified for cruising. She spent millions restoring Endeavor. Here’s an excerpt from an article in Yachting magazine:

“When Meyer grew up she thought all the Js were gone. But then she went to see Swept Away, an avant-garde film about personal relationships on an island and aboard a sailing yacht. In the middle of the movie she realized that the featured sailboat was in fact Shamrock. “I simply stood up in the theater and shouted ‘That’s a J-Boat, a J-Boat!’ ”

It was when freelancing for Nautical Quarterly that she tackled an assignment on a number of classic yachts that were still alive, either preserved in mud berths in England or sailing the Mediterranean. Enter Shamrock V and Endeavour—the 1930 and 1934 America’s Cup challengers from England.

“I saw Shamrock in Monaco and immediately wanted to chainsaw her add-on houses,” says Meyer, who eventually did exactly that in 1986. “My favorite thing is to chainsaw things off that should not have been put on in the first place. When I saw Endeavour, I was overtaken by an irresistible urge,” she says. “I’m going to buy this and restore it.” She did.”

Comment by Steve S.

Today I finally received confirmation that my $5k CARB rebate has been processed and will go through. I took delivery of my Roadster on 12/13/08 and submitted the rebate application soon after.

Comment by Ben

Ben,

That money ran out last year. You must have just got in under the wire.

Comment by vfx

Vfx, it had officially “run out” at the time I submitted my application, but I called the program manager and she encouraged me to apply anyway, just in case more funds became available. Evidently, some did; but just how much, I have no idea. But hey, now all I need to do is cough up another $35k and I can pony up a deposit for the Model S :)

Comment by Ben




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