Marc and I gave a talk as part of Maui’s Focus Green lecture series a few weeks back. The audience was mostly enthusiastic local environmentalists,who had dozens of questions for us when our talk was through. I know the talk was taped, but I haven’t found a link to the talk yet. If anyone finds a link to the video, please let me know.
Our message had two main points: True, a low-production volume electric car by itself won’t make much difference in the world. But by making an extremely appealing electric car, Tesla was able to resuscitate the electric car, spurring a whole new wave of electric car development across the industry.
Hawaii is a little like Tesla Motors: even if the entire state went completely sustainable, its direct impact on global warming would be negligible – although most of Hawaii’s energy comes from petroleum, its total carbon footprint is tiny, and its per capita carbon footprint is way below the US average. But 7.5 million people visit Hawaii every year – largely from the mainland, but also from Japan and other worldwide destinations. Hawaii’s opportunity is not just to become a sustainable state, but to send these visitors home with a vision of a sustainable future – a vision they can lobby for wherever they call home.
Hawaii has begun to build several clean energy production facilities, including a couple of medium-sized wind farms and a wave-energy generator. Among my suggestions was that these sites also should become tourist destinations. (Right now, you can’t get within a mile of the wind farms; they are definitely not destinations!)
In attendance was a whole crew of kids from nearby Seabury Hall High School, who had built a pretty neat electric conversion car. Their teacher asked me to come visit their school, so the next day Carolyn and I visited the school and had a look at their next electric car conversion in progress. These kids are well on their way to becoming part of our next wave of automotive engineers.
Here are the slides from our presentation. Sorry for the lame conversion; getting from PowerPoint to something I can show with WordPress is painful. My slides are usually quite dynamic – lots of moving parts. I have flattened them and made them static to make them work here.
UPDATE: See a video of this presentation here.
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It is interesting to mention the footprint of a state (or country). Flying a family to Hawaii just one time has C02 emissions approximately equivalent to that same family driving for a full year. People seem to be unaware of the environmental impact of air travel. I used to be a disbeliever, scoffing at “hippie” friends who took trains instead of planes. In my mind, there was not a significant difference; but, after looking into it, it is really amazing the impact that air travel has. People will drive a prius and think they are doing right then take a few trips a year. Their impact is more than someone driving a hummer and not flying.
Of course, that is not the main point of your post. Hawaii does have an amazing opportunity in terms of wind, wave, solar, micro hydro and of course geothermal. Being islands and relatively small in size a switch to all electric would be relatively easy. I suggest the same for Bermuda.
Comment by Pete March 25, 2008 @ 3:07 pmI forgot to mention the massive trickle down benefits founding Telsa motors has provided. Even if Tesla never actually produces any cars in volume the real success is volt. And not so much even volt itself as getting GM into the game to motivate Toyota. I see Toyota having the greatest commitment and potential. So in an amazing nth degree of separation way, you have effectively commanded Toyota to produce a plug-in hybrid, accelerate their transition to lithium chemistries and advance their pure EV program. Naysayers will happily point out that this would have all happened anyhow and I would counter with, “when?” It seems for as long as I have driven there has been some amazing platform on a next generation technology at every autoshow; but, regardless of how much time passes the same damn thing is at the next autoshow with a new body design and remix of the amazing platform. Now we are seeing actual production commitments and real designs. It is a very exciting time.
The impact this will have is really immeasurable. Thank you Martin and Marc.
Comment by Pete March 25, 2008 @ 3:18 pmIn line with your image problem portrayal in early EV promotions, wouldn’t it have been better to have Carolyn seated in the Tesla rather than your bearded self? Actually, the idea of EV rental fleets in a vacation mecca like Hawaii would clearly whet the appetite of the tourists and make the demand that much stronger for similar accomodations when they got home. A great idea.
Martin sez:
YOU try and talk Carolyn into posing for a picture! Talk about camera-shy.
Comment by Roger Richardson March 25, 2008 @ 4:16 pmThe more that I think about Hawaii as a testbed/showcase for green technology (especially EVs), the more sense it makes. As Pete pointed out, there are numerous sustainable energy sources that can be converted to electricity, and if Iceland is any indication, the geothermal alone could be enough to power the entire island chain. There is a relatively high number of high net worth individuals with homes there who, with a little encouragement, might become early adopters of cleantech/greentech. And the idea of planting the seeds of greentech awareness within the tourist population is brilliant. When people get home from vacation they love to tell their friends about the things that they have seen.
In addition, I would imagine that on a relatively small island there would be a lot less “range anxiety” for EVs, despite it’s unfounded nature. I have never driven in Hawaii, but I imagine that it would be difficult to exceed the Roadster’s 220 mile range there in a single day.
Now, if we could just fuel those jetliners with pineapple juice…
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 25, 2008 @ 5:21 pmThis is slightly off topic. I apologize in advance.
Martin, do you think that there’s ever any chance that TM will sell drive train conversion kits so that some of us poor schmucks that can’t afford a roadster could at least convert an RX-8, or some similar platform, into their own dream EV? Are there any legal/liability issues that would prevent this? It just strikes me that they seem to have had a lot of production capacity (for the drive train) sitting idle while Elon “revises” his position regarding the transmission. At least it would have created additional revenue and also given TM the opportunity to iron out any bugs in those production lines. Perhaps there are additional obstacles that I haven’t considered.
Anyway, I would appreciate any insight that you might offer on this issue.
All the best,
Chris H.
Martin sez:
I doubt they will do this in the foreseeable future. There are lots of reasons – legal reasons, reasons of distraction from their core mission, etc. While I was CEO, I said that we would not do this. Sorry
However, one day, you might be able to buy the components from their parts department…
Comment by Chris Harvey March 25, 2008 @ 5:48 pmI enthusiastically agree with Pete. And when roadsters start showing up on the street in significant numbers their contribution will be even greater.
Comment by Steve S. March 25, 2008 @ 5:53 pmTrying this a 2nd time:
For the fuel cell portion of your presentation, have you evaluated the impact of solar hydrogen generators:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20134/
http://www.nanoptek.com/
Also, are your efficiency values for electrolysis updated with more efficient alkaline electrolysis processes:
http://www.hydrogenics.com/onsite/pdf/Hydrogen%20Plants_web.pdf
Even better, have you seen Quantum Spheres hydrogen generation systems using nano-electrodes:
http://www.qsinano.com/white_papers/Water%20Electrolysis%20April%2007.pdf
I don’t mind anyone championing EV’s, but let’s be completely fair to other technologies. Moreover, you don’t discuss the current capital costs of buying batteries, which adds $20K to a vehicle, which is why GM is taking the serial hybrid approach.
Finally, I wouldn’t compare GM’s E-REV pursuit to their BEV approach. I still agree with GM’s assessment that their aren’t many buyers for a vehicle that sits dead for 3 – 4 hours while charging, and the E-REV is the obvious solution.
Martin sez:
Sometimes the WordPress machine flags posts as possible spam, so they don’t show up until I get around to checking them. I don’t understand their algorithm, but I notice that posts with lots of links in them get flagged.
I will delete your earlier attempt to post this same thing.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 25, 2008 @ 6:06 pmHi Martin,
A good way to put Powerpoint slides online is to use Slideshare. They’re like YouTube but for Powerpoint rather than video.
Look forward to hearing about the new roadster!
Martin sez:
I tried Slideshare, but after 3 hours of their engine trying to convert my slides, I gave up!
Update:
It’s now been 6 hours, and their website says:
Crushingly lame.
Comment by Tim March 25, 2008 @ 6:35 pmHi Martin,
Thanks for the blog, always interesting stuff, the Hawiaan school kids converting cars sounds sweet – are they blogging it?
This is off topic, and I apologise, but I read Z Drori’s blog on the Telsa site on the CARB situation – sets off a few conspiracy theory alarm bells in my mind – and I don’t like to think of myself as the paranoid type… I just wonder what you think of it all having had involvement with it all?
Thanks
Nathan
Martin sez:
It is clear the CARB is yielding once again to pressure from the big car companies. They did it in 2003 when they gutted the mandate, allowing the OEMs to opt out of electric cars and into fuel cell test programs – I have written about this before. I remain convinced that the OEMs knew that they could get the ZEV mandate rewritten again before they had to actually produce any significant number of fuel cell cars. I believe this because the scientists at the OEMs knew all along that fuel cell cars would remain ridiculously expensive, and that hydrogen would not become America’s next fuel.
That said, I think it is disingenuous of Ze’ev to whine about the loss of value for ZEV credits in his point 5. Tesla must build a business that works financially without depending on ZEV credits, unless they want to be in the same boat as Phoenix and ZAP.
Comment by Nathan White March 25, 2008 @ 6:52 pmHi Martin,
Also, what do you think of this bus?
http://www.adelaidecitycouncil.com/scripts/nc.dll?ADCC:STANDARD::pc=PC_151048
I’ve been wondering about trying to get a bus like this (i.e. pure EV) in operation in a different environment (say, volcanic, hilly Auckland, NZ) – and I’ve been told that drawing power from the batteries when you need it is an issue. I wasn’t sure about that – and if so, how does the Tesla get around it?. Adleiade is pretty flat, so large bursts of power wouldn’t be so much of an issue. I read an article about the Morgan fuel cell car…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7265267.stm
The relevant extract:
When the car needs to accelerate or climb a hill it draws extra power from a bank of ultra-capacitors aligned down the centre of the car.
“They are like a battery but they do not store quite as much energy and they allow the energy in and out much quicker,” explained Mr Whiting.
These are primarily charged by a regenerative braking system which slows the car by converting the vehicle’s kinetic energy into useful electrical energy using a motor.
Would something like this be able to be applied to something much bigger like a bus?
Thanks
Nathan
Martin sez:
Existing batteries, such as those in a Prius and those in a Tesla, provide plenty enough power for a hot sportscar or for a bus. Fuel cells, on the other hand, have trouble delivering high power, so engineers must solve this problem with external energy storage – ultracaps in your example, lithium ion batteries in the Ford fuel cell vehicles.
I would need to do the math, but I bet that standard lithium ion batteries (lithium cobalt, lithium manganese, lithium iron phosphate, etc.) would provide ploent of power for hill climbing with a bus, no ultracaps needed.
Comment by Nathan White March 25, 2008 @ 7:07 pm“I forgot to mention the massive trickle down benefits founding Telsa motors has provided” Well said Pete.
I agree with what others here have pointed out about the Hawian Islands being a great place for BEV’s. Not so much because 220 mile range would be hard exceed, but rather >120 miles is of little use and not the obstacle it is on the mainland. Thus BEV’s are inherently more practical for more people. Who wouldn’t want a well built luxury sedan for $45K with 120 mile range if you never drive more than 120 miles in a day?
This brings to mind an interesting business model that I’ve meant to bring up. The Caribbean offers a tremendous opportunity for a reasonably funded entrepenurial company that marries simple BEV’s with solar. For the most part, the Caribbean Islands are small, so vehicles with 15-50 mile ranges and sub 55mph speeds are an excellent fit. Power is also a significant issue being unreliable and expensive. Most vacation and wealthy homeowers have generators. Gas can be short in supply and expensive, while sushine is plentiful.
An inexpensive battery powered vehicle offering, perhaps suped up golf cart and Jeep Wrangler type chassis, would suffice for the BEV’s. Standard roof mounted Solar with power electronics to charge or draw from the car batteries. Basically an integrator/installer company to start. Innivation could come later in energy storage products. Most of the regulatory environments are vastly different (freindlier)than in the US.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 25, 2008 @ 8:20 pm# Chris Harvey wrote:
## Now, if we could just fuel those jetliners with pineapple juice…
Then you could call it the Pineapple Express!
# Pete wrote:
## Flying a family to Hawaii just one time has C02 emissions approximately equivalent to that same family driving for a full year
Oh man. I am heading over in a few weeks and now you remind me how guilty I should be about it!
Martin: got any ideas for less “emissive” air travel?
By the way, Martin, when I use Firefox browser many of your web links at the top of this blog entry don’t work. The links seem to come across as http://http//(blah)
Martin sez:
Thanks, TEG! I think the links are all fixed now.
Comment by TEG March 25, 2008 @ 10:29 pmHere’s a video of one of Martin’s talks, to the Motor Press Guild, from a kinder, gentler time: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6124789175148491596&q=%22eberhard%22&total=560&start=0&num=100&so=0&type=search&plindex=2 . I’ve long enjoyed it; I don’t remember if the link was ever posted. The related slides and video were mentioned but not seen in the video.
The slides from the Hawaii presentation were very good to see, especially the ones comparing the electric car numbers to those of other technologies. Words are nowhere near as effective.
If I might make a suggestion, it would be nice to see a slide immediately after the one with Dave Barthmuss’ spin against the market for electric cars, maybe with GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner’s (Lutz’s boss) admission that canceling the EV-1 program was the biggest mistake he ever made, and maybe Chelsea Sexton’s comment that there was demand for the cars and Barthmuss knew it, because she had discussed it with him, and that there was a long waiting list.
Concerning wind farms, I once visited the one in Tehachapi Pass in southern CA, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehachapi_Pass_Wind_Farm . I have to admit that it was extremely depressing to me as someone who loves nature and clean energy.
Years ago, a friend’s accountant had him invest in wind farms as a tax dodge, because even in the worst case the tax incentives would produce a net gain. With that in mind, I noticed that about a third of the windmills were broken or otherwise non-functional. Evidently wind power wasn’t then economically viable, even if you already had a site and an existing windmill, and all you had to do was simple repair and maintenance.
Even the ones in normal operation were very irritatingly noisy, and the whole mess was a major eyesore, much worse than in photographs, because it couldn’t be ignored. The unsynchronized motion of the various blades demanded visual attention. It made being there nearly intolerable, ruining a large area of near-wilderness. It seems like an awful technology to promote, to try to get people interested in renewable energy. Am I missing something? Are the latest wind farms much improved?
Incidentally, a friend recently drove by this facility on highway 395 near Kramer Junction in southern CA: http://ludb.clui.org/ex/i/CA9679/ I saw it for myself on Google Earth. It evidently concentrates solar energy with “troughs” focused on pipes carrying oil, which is used to boil water after it’s heated, generating electricity through steam. I don’t know much about it, but it’s here and now.
Comment by Steve S. March 25, 2008 @ 10:53 pmMartin,
Thanks for your talk here the other day and for spending the time talking to all of us individually outside. I think you hit all the high points in your talk quite well and it gave me even more ammunition than I already have in dealing with all the naysayers about electric cars.
Your insight in to Hawaii being the perfect test bed for electric vehicles is spot-on though I must say to the commenters who think that we couldn’t exceed 220 miles here in a day that such a thing is quite possible although represents the outside edge of vehicle usage (I’m excluding fleets here). However, Maui really represents the best test bed with enough distance to travel in a mix of city-style traffic and rural roads and being small enough to make it quite easy to only have to charge a vehicle every 3rd day.
The Big Island of Hawaii, however, is another story. We don’t call it the Big Island for fun, exceeding 220 miles there would be quite easy in a day and getting around the island is a chore given the size, the distances and the traffic.
The Maui grid is actually the most stable of all the islands because of the combination of the windfarm (only 1 so far with one in the planning stages) some small hydro, bagasse burning at the sugar mill and some home grid-tied systems. Having the Kaheawa windfarm and the sugar mill both as independent producers allowed us to come back online in only a few hours after last year’s earthquake while Oahu struggled for days with power problems.
I’m looking forward to our wave energy test bed system coming online in a couple of years.
Comment by Tom Elliot March 25, 2008 @ 11:41 pmVery interesting. Hawaii has the obvious advantage of an embarrassment of renewables in one location, but there is a real need for eco-holiday destinations everywhere.
Even the Saudis see tourism as crucial to their economy once the oil stocks dwindle. Dubai seems an obvious place for wind, wave and solar renewables. Plus, they’re not exactly strapped for cash.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Islands
To be sure these places will always suffer from the jet-aeroplane-still-has-to-get-you-there criticisms, but it’s about tapping into that desirable up-market image.
And there are plenty of high quality holiday destinations which would only require a short plane hop.
Someone needs to establish eco-holiday facilities, located near and working with local farming communities. In the UK, it’s the old idea of the Country Estate – the local farms providing produce for the Country House. Except it just becomes the Country Eco-Hotel.
Or it could be local Farm Shops supporting a small eco-village. Self-catering accomodation etc.
So Martin, how’s your eco-holiday home in Northern California coming along?
Comment by Malcolm Wilson March 26, 2008 @ 5:51 amAruba is another good candidate…LOTS of wind and sun, and definite power needs as they desalinate all of their water….
Comment by Jim March 26, 2008 @ 6:35 amI suppose if the federal government hadn’t just raised the CAFE standards 40%, and if all automakers weren’t announcing hybrids and alternative fuel vehicles for 2009, 2010 and 2012, then CAFE could / should start fining automakers.
Because the UAW, automakers, the federal government, etc. all seem to be moving forward in unison, I would not throw a monkeywrench into the works, and let things continue to evolve as they are.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 26, 2008 @ 6:37 amVery nice presentation. The slides make a very compelling argument, both for BEVs and for a green Hawaii. Good job, Martin.
Keith
Martin sez:
Thank you Keith. I usually consider slides to play only a supporting role in presentations that I give. For this reason, my slides tend to be very visual, and with not too many words. I worry when I post my slides that a lot of the presentation gets lost.
Comment by Keith Hearn March 26, 2008 @ 11:14 amMartin,
This is unrelated to this post, but I have not had a response to my request for direct communication with you. So I have no way of contacting you directly and am trying to reach you again through a post in your blog.
I wrote a post in my blog that got featured in EVWorld – the #1 web site for Electric Vehicles.
In my post I mentioned you and your blog. I wanted to make sure I have permission to do that. I don’t want any lawyers calling my number or anything, so I just want to make sure this is all okay.
You can see the post here:
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1421
The post has a link to your blog.
Take care.
- Ricardo Parker
Martin sez:
I just responded to you privately.
Comment by Ricardo Parker March 26, 2008 @ 2:00 pmRecent “Wired mag. Autoblog” has story (quoting Tesla Marketing guy Siry) about Martin’s Tesla Roadster #2- due to arrive sometime in April, color: matte gray, (similar to early Audi TT gray color), with orange racing stripe. I think I remember that Audi color, a rather medium warm gray- nice color. Siry also said next priority for Tesla is to sell the car in Europe, especially in light of weak dollar. Sweden and Norway supposed to be especially good due to incentives to buy elect. cars. On a heavier note: part of Antarctic iceshelf 7 times the size of Manhattan just broke off. Also, 90% of bats in caves in parts of New York state have died off suddenly (with white fungus around their mouths). Similar to wordlwide frog die-off situation, where I think they finally attributed that to fungi that proliferated due to higher temps. caused by global warming.
Martin sez:
I am annoyed that Siry decided to announce the colors of my car. He reads this blog, as well as http://www.teslamotorsclub.com, and he knows perfectly well from my comments on both sites that I was not going to say what color my car would be until it arrived. Knowing this, the only reason he would do such a thing is plain, petty meanness.
Comment by T.J. March 26, 2008 @ 5:16 pmForgot to mention, per Steve comment on wind power: I agree. Years ago I saw one of first big wind farms (anywhere) at Altamont Pass in N. Calif.-kind of thought the same at the time. The best green power in this re. must be geothermal (barring river or wave turbines). The recent MIT study of this shows the vast untapped potential. At least with solar plants they’re lower and flatter, usually desert areas without “high scenic value”-also, wind turbines are supposed to kill alot of birds.
Comment by T.J. March 26, 2008 @ 5:30 pmMartin-sorry I spilled the beans on car color here ( I don’t visit Teslaclub site, and missed post here). Siry has gone over to the dark side? Re. fungus on bats- here’s short thought on that: besides frog and now bat die-offs there are the recent bee colony collapses-where they also found some bees infected with fungus, but haven’t pinned down cause of die-offs for sure. I did google search on fungus increase and co2 level increase-pulled up “Harvard Gazette Review” article of 7/17/03 titled ” Climate, asthma connected according to research”- asthma rates have doubled recently, due partly to more pollen via more co2 & warming. Article said: “Co2 stimulates photosynthesis rates in very small plants like fungi”. They also said: ” Of 1.5 million species of fungi worlwide , scientists have named and characterized maybe 70,000 or so”. Leaves a lot of room open for maybe hidden fungi-caused trouble in small creatures-maybe via weakening of immune systems if nothing else. Since bats eat tons upon tons of insects, could have significant impact on N.Y. agriculture & human health (via more mosquitos & west nile virus)- according to PBS news story I saw.
Comment by T.J. March 26, 2008 @ 6:58 pmGeothermal certainly seems to have the lowest ecological impact. It also seems to be durable and low maintenance to boot, unless you live on the San Andreas Fault…
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 26, 2008 @ 7:00 pmHi Martin,
Could you please help at the C.A.R.B. meeting tomorrow to make sure the minimum requirement doesn’t get lowered to 2000 cars. That would be a joke, as Tesla will soon produce more than that annually soon.
-Max
Comment by Max March 26, 2008 @ 7:56 pmTeg,
To ease your consciene. Based on 2007 figures for AAL, they averaged about 60 miles/gallon per seat. So, if your plane is full and a newer model a flight to Honolulu could be around 85 miles/gallon per seat or about 60 gallons per seat round trip.
Tom,
Certainly one can drive 220 miles on any island, but how necessary is that much range. The biggest problem facing BEV’s and REEV’s (or EREV as some prefer) is battery cost. Martin could answer better, I believe the difference in selling price between 220 mile range and 120 mile is $12,000-$20,000 or more for exotic chemistries. I just visited and drove on the Big Island last November. It is definitely Big, but if I remember correctly you could manage fine with 120 mile range and the extra $ in your pocket.
ICE cars don’t have the ability to scale down like this. EV’s could also scale up if designed for it.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 27, 2008 @ 2:57 amWhat reason do you have to believe that your special paint job was revealed intentionally? I just don’t see how revealing your special paint job is anymore childish, petty or mean than trying to keep it a secret in the first place. Were you afraid someone was going to copy you, so that you weren’t unique? Were you hoping to do a dramatic unveiling, to illicit oh’s and ah’s?
I keep hoping that you move on from this, and embrace your next endevour – you’ve got a supporting wife, and large fan club, so you are doing better than me.
Martin sez:
When you keep your wife’s birthday present a secret until her birthday, are you being childish, petty, or mean? If I knew what you were giving her and told her before her birthday, wouldn’t you think that was mean of me? Do you see the difference?
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 27, 2008 @ 5:34 amShut up Hendler you dipstick
Martin sez:
Well that just barely squeaked by my cabbage filter!
Comment by Adam March 27, 2008 @ 6:58 amI would just like to clarify something. When I said:
“In addition, I would imagine that on a relatively small island there would be a lot less “range anxiety” for EVs, despite it’s unfounded nature. I have never driven in Hawaii, but I imagine that it would be difficult to exceed the Roadster’s 220 mile range there in a single day.”
I wasn’t trying to start a debate as to whether it’s possible to drive 220 miles in one day on the Big H, I was merely trying to point out that there should be less concern among potential buyers on an island like Hawai’i about range limitations. I hope that this clears up any confusion about the point I was trying to make. All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 27, 2008 @ 9:13 amMartin,
when D.S. spilled the beans on your colours, his conscious (or subconscious) intent was to demonstrate loyalty to his new boss by publicly betraying his old boss. It’s his personal form of sphincter-smooching Ze’ev (Hey Darryl, how’s it going?). It’s too bad that the result was to ruin the surprise for Carolyn.
Anyway, I’m sorry if this post has inspired any graphic imagery….. c’est la vie.
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 27, 2008 @ 9:40 amLet me straighten one thing out. This is Martin’s car. He did not mean to imply that it was a surprise birthday present for me. My birthday was months ago!
Martin sez:
Exactly so. My point to Jason is that there is a great big difference between keeping a surprise (for whatever reason) and spoiling someone’s surprise.
My reasons for keeping my car color a surprise were my own personal reasons, which should not matter to Siry or anyone else.
Comment by Carolyn Eberhard March 27, 2008 @ 10:09 amHi Carolyn,
I guess Martin’s intention was to surprise you with the color of his new car.
Best wishes
Comment by HectorRV March 27, 2008 @ 10:31 amI have known the color choice all along. There is even a Photoshop picture of his car in our bedroom. It was on the night stand, but I moved it. I just realized that there is no picture of our son in our bedroom, but we have one of the car. Hmmm…..I might have to fix this!
Martin sez:
Here is the picture Carolyn is talking about. I had asked Barney Hatt (who designed the Roadster body) for a few color schemes that were outside my own comfort zone. He created a handful of photoshop proposals with various colors and striping schemes, and this one I liked. He was thinking of using silver, but I liked the TT gray – My own TT was that color.
[Link to image]
Comment by Carolyn Eberhard March 27, 2008 @ 10:57 amMartin:
I really enjoyed your presentation! Will this “front end” to the images help?
Presentation in Hawaii
If not… just toss this post!
Comment by Yanquetino March 27, 2008 @ 11:19 amDavid,
Marc and Martin actually covered that issue of range quite well in their talk here. It is to a certain extent about “range anxiety” as someone else said, but it is also about the practical. There really are times when I would need more than 150 miles range between charges (a more accurate measure) and the 220 mile range of the battery pack ensures that margin. Also, the larger battery pack means that most charge/use cycles will be less than 30%, which is better for the long term health of any battery system.
As for costs, I’m sure Martin can address this specifically but my guess is that there is a certain base cost to the battery infrastructure itself and adding more range is not as expensive as that basic infrastructure. By that I mean that a battery pack with 110 miles of range would not cost 1/2 of a pack with 220 miles of range.
The 220 mile initial range of the pack also allows for longer pack life as batteries age and/or drop out of use in the system, reducing real range. Better to have the battery pack last 150,000 miles and have 180 mile range at mile 150,000 than to have them drop below 90 miles of range in less than 100,000 miles.
Having heard them speak I feel pretty confident their choice of range was about more than just miles but pack life and overall cost as well as range on a charge.
Comment by Tom Elliot March 27, 2008 @ 11:26 amHey…… Let’s consider some of the fundamental methods for storing energy! (If you think that I’m trying to change the subject, you’re right… )
Okay, let’s see, there’s storing energy as heat in a medium, such as water, oil, or rocks. There’s compressing a gas within a container (creating a pressure differential). There’s opposing gravity, such as raising a mass above ground level or holding back water behind a dam. There’s chemical energy contained by forming bonds between atoms, such as in food or oil. There’s separating oppositely charged particles, as in a capacitor or a battery. There’s storing energy in an elastic material, such as an elastic band or a spring. There’s fusing atomic nuclei, as in building helium nuclei from hydrogen nuclei (not too many practical applications that I can think of…). There’s probably more, but I’m running out of steam (NPI). Somebody help me out…
If your wondering why I’m going off on this crazy tangent, let me explain. Energy storage will become increasingly important as we bid farewell to the age of oil. Although we will harness different sources of energy (the Sun & geothermal) we will need to find cheap, practical ways to store that energy until we are ready to use it. It is difficult
to balance the demand for energy with supply, unless you have some form of reserve capacity. Therefore, we need cheap, abundant, efficient, & environmentally friendly forms of energy storage. So, what are our options? If anybody has any new ideas, I’d love to hear them. All the best,
Chris H.
P.S. One caveat: try to keep it within the realm of reality (no speeding up or slowing down of the Earth’s rotation, etc…)
Martin sez:
I completely agree that energy storage is key to solving our energy problems. Good storage makes clean energy (such as wind and solar) so much more useful, and also is the heart of electric vehicles.
Here is an excerpt from my testimony to the US Senate last May first:
Comment by Chris Harvey March 27, 2008 @ 11:37 amMartin, I don’t believe it is possible to spoil the ownership of your new Roadster.
I assume you’ll be getting Drivetrain 1.0 so at some stage the car will have to go back to be fitted with 1.5. I’m sure there will be a list of other niggles and flaws which you will spot and list for correction. I’m sure that favourite TT of yours had a few quirks as well.
But this car is unlike any other you have or will ever own. It represents years of your own effort and belief and will to inspire others. It is an intensely personal piece – no other car will ever mean as much to you.
But it is built by the British and assembled and serviced by Californians.
Consequently, owning it is very likely to involve the same mix of emotions and frustations as were involved in creating it.
But you already know this – the colour scheme is outside your personal comfort zone. I get it. It’s about making change happen; about pushing the envelop.
Comment by malcolm wilson March 27, 2008 @ 1:05 pmWow! It’s breathtaking to read about an issue that has been carefully thought through and clearly articulated. I have come across references to your testimony to the US Senate before, but I never followed the links. It’s good to know that the Senate is actually exposed to this kind of quality of thought. I just hope that they have the requisite neuronal resources to recognize the importance of this kind of information, and to act accordingly. Considering the track record, I’m dubious.
So, obviously, you’re a battery guy. Is this because you consider it to be the best option overall, or just the best option in the short term? Are there any battery chemistries that you are aware of that might offer paradigm shift potential in the industry, or do you just envision slow, steady improvements accumulating over time? (I realize that there are some fundamental chemical and physical limits to consider here…)
I have a few ideas of my own, I’m just not sure that they’re ready for Primetime yet (think biological systems related to electricity). These kind of things are a little further away than new anode/cathode materials. Anyway, that’s enough rambling from me…
All the best,
Chris H.
Martin sez:
While CEO of Tesla, I was single-mindedly focused on batteries because I believed (and still believe) that they are the best way to store energy in a vehicle. Outside of Tesla and vehicles, I think there are many interesting storage techniques. The difference is portability – if I don’t especially care how big or heavy my storage is, then many more cost-effective solutions are on the table. A good example is old-fashioned pumped water. I am told that newer utility-scale facilities are approaching 80% efficiency, which is awesome. What I like about pumped water is that such a system should last for a very long time. (Note that the Niagra Falls AC generators, designed by Nikola Tesla himself, are still working fine.) Batteries, on the other hand, have a pesky problem with cycle life.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 27, 2008 @ 1:47 pmRe. energy storage-for homes, PV systems-what’s the deal with fuel cells ?-You hear of solar prototype homes with these-are these better than batteries for PV power storage for use at night? Re. car color-nice color, bold move on the stripes. Elon’s color is black: bad move. I consider black a non-color, white too-but at least white’s semi- cheerful. Black gets hot and shows every scratch in the sunlight, besides not being fitting for a zippy sportscar vibe. I read once where black and red are “power colors”, preferred by “power people”. I like yellow, or blue ( or blue-gray,blue-green), cream, pewter, – or the warm pewter color on Corvettes-or taupe maybe, or silver: but light, “pure aluminum” type silver.
Comment by T.J. March 27, 2008 @ 4:11 pmGot “Aptera Newsletter” e-mail: said they’re starting to build first cars, they’re ” hiring a bunch of new people / moving into new, larger facility / starting mass production / building first Aptera store ” -they call it a store, like Tesla. They also say one of funders is “Esenjay Investments”- can’t find any info., for sure, on who they are. Aptera designer was “Jason Hill of Eleven, LLC. He previously worked on Porsche Carrera GT and Smart Car designs”.
Comment by T.J. March 27, 2008 @ 4:38 pm# T.J. Wrote:
## one of (Aptera) funders is “Esenjay Investments”- can’t find any info.
From Wikipedia : “Idealab is the original investor in Aptera Motors, with Esenjay Petroleum CEO Michael Johnson as a second round investor.”
Comment by TEG March 27, 2008 @ 6:19 pmRecently I posted reservations about wind farms as poster children for renewable energy, based on a visit to Tehachapi Pass. I did say I wondered if I were missing something. Indeed I was, although my concerns were quite valid. The people of Maui were even more concerned than I about the environmental problems of wind farms. In addition to a solution to the admittedly major noise and eyesore issues, they demanded studies on the possible effects on flora and fauna at the sites.
Most importantly, the existing farm and future ones have remote locations, inaccessible to tourists. They can’t be heard, and can be seen only at a considerable distance. Even that is troublesome to locals, because the existing farm is a small sore spot on a majestic skyline. Tourists probably won’t mind, and will probably think it’s interesting and even inspirational.
The units are much larger and turn more slowly than the ones I saw in CA, so they’re quieter, much fewer in number and less dangerous to birds. The blades are painted white to make the birds see them more easily.
The locals are willing to put up with some degree of aesthetic pollution, because almost all of the energy in Maui comes from petroleum by ship, used to fuel diesel engine power plants. The increasing price of fuel is obviously a major concern. The diesel plants will still be useful to fill in when the wind dies down. The existing solar plant has provided 10% of the power on Maui in its first year of operation, and is evidently seen as a big success, although there is still political resistance to expansion at the same site.
The tradeoffs of wind versus other technologies, for Hawaii, is something I know very little about, except that Hawaii is about a good a place for wind power as can be found. It’s surrounded by thousands of miles of ocean, so developing winds are unimpeded.
Maui isn’t as favorable for geothermal as some of the other islands, at which it seems a natural. Solar might be an excellent option in the strong tropical sun. Each island in the chain has to have its own energy generation, so various solutions may appear. I don’t know enough at this point to form opinions.
Currently at http://www.pluginamerica.com/ are some videos of speakers appearing outside the recent CARB meeting. The second one is a Tesla representative. I believe four roadsters were present also.
Martin sez:
Yes, the Hawaiians have learned from earlier wind farms and have attempted to address the major concerns, and we will learn and improve with each generation of generator (so to speak).
To me, it is a no-brainer that wind energy is better for Hawaii than imported petroleum. There are two (aesthetically not so pleasing) refineries in Hawaii, and several diesel-electric generating facilities. There is a constant traffic of oil tankers in and out of Hawaii, and there are a couple of wrecked tankers on Hawaii’s shores. I submit that the wind turbines are prettier than any of these.
And Hawaii may be strongly affected by global climate change. While I was there, Maui was experiencing an unseasonal drought. The relatively minor annoyance of windmills on the horizon is nothing compared to the damage caused by Hawaii’s alternative, petroleum.
We have to get real here – every energy source has some downside to it. But some are worse than others – much, much worse.
Comment by Steve S. March 27, 2008 @ 8:15 pmMartin said…
Tesla is not in the business of making cells, though I have thought about it a lot. If no one else steps up to the plate and if I can figure out how to finance such a venture, I might take a swing at it. Now if you are looking to invest about $500M, please let me know…
So martin are you hinting at the next Eberhard Edventure
Ciao,
Mike
Martin sez:
If I could figure out how to raise $500M
Comment by Mike A March 28, 2008 @ 3:01 amTesla has been “in production” for 11 days now.
Given the current rate of manufacture, do you have an idea when your car should hit the US shores?
BTW I never pictured you for a racing stripes sort of guy. My only concern is that as you are someone with a high profile, you will get your car a lot of press. That is a good thing, but it is unfortunate that many people will see the stripes and be turned off immediately. I know I am. Stripes scream “play toy” rather than major accomplishment.
At least everyone will know that one is yours
Of course at the end of the day all that matters is that you are happy with it, and maybe not doing what is more socially acceptable to help advance “the cause”.
Martin sez:
No word from Tesla at all.
Comment by Mark March 28, 2008 @ 4:52 amMartin,
I apologize for jumping on you about the color scheme thing. I just wish there still wasn’t so much animosity present that even little things cause flare-ups. I sincerely want you to move on to the next great thing that you could be doing.
I am relieved about the CARB turnout – reducing 25,000 ZEV’s to 7,500 ZEV’s and adding 60,000 hybrid requirement – sounds to me like reasonable give and take between government and industry.
Martin sez:
Apology accepted.
I need to read the new regulations, but what I read in the press is pathetic. Remember that 1.5 million cars are sold in California every year. 7,500 EVs (and fuel cell cars!) by 2014 makes no difference at all.
I think the regulations require 60,000 plug-in hybrids – not just lame hybrids like the 31 mpg Lexus RX400h. If the regulations require adequate (40 miles or more) electric range, then these will make a difference. But if they allow plug-in hybrids with sub-8 mile electric range such as those proposed by Toyota, then this requirement is a joke.
The history of the ZEV mandate leads me to believe that even this modest requirement will likely get reduced as we approach 2014. Remember that this is the 4th time the mandate has been watered down – each time as we approached a performance milestone.
It is also interesting to note that (at least according to the CNN story), BMW managed to wiggle out of its obligation to meet the mandate. I believe that BMW crossed over to become a large-volume manufacturer in California this year, and I was at one of the CARB hearings where a BMW spokesperson was pleading for relief from its new obligations.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 28, 2008 @ 5:47 amMartin said:
I believe that large capacity energy storage will become one of the key issues in the coming decade, as we strive toward energy independence.
———————————————-
Talk about coincidence! In ZENN’s stockholders’ meeting this morning, its executives stated that energy storage is their top concern for the future –which is why they have secured exclusive rights to use EEStor’s ultra-capacitor in small/medium EVs up to 1400 kg (3100 lbs.). They provided some noteworthy stats about the thinking behind that move:
* There are less than 17 million tons of lithium in the planet.
* There are 2 billion tons of barite (the prime material in the ultra-capacitor).
* Said amount of barite = 10 billion cars! Currently there are 750 million passenger cars on earth, so there is more than enough barite to bring about the transition away from fossil fuels.
* EEStor has committed to “commercialization in 2008.”
* Their agreement with EEStor is “in perpetuity” worldwide.
They also made some intriguing announcements:
* They are developing a complete ZENNergy Power System that uses said ultra-capacitor.
* Nonetheless, they are also closely monitoring research in lithium batteries so that, if EEStor’s ultra-capacitor doesn’t prove viable, they can still proceed with their future manufacturing plans.
* They intend to produce a four-passenger low-speed ZENN in 2009.
* They intend to produce a highway-capable EV dubbed “cityZENN” by “late 2009,” with an 80 mph top speed, a 250 mile range, and a 5-minute recharge.
* They eventually hope to retrofit existing ICE vehicles with ZENNergy Power Systems, primarily for fleets, perhaps (much) later for individuals.
Yeah, I know: it’s all speculation at this point, but I would like to think that those Canadians are much more trustworthy than outfits like Hybrid Technologies, Spark EV, or Zap!
By the way, just a couple of weeks ago my wife and I drove the same blue ZENN that was at the Plug-In America rally for CARB. Yes, it’s only a NEV, but it wasn’t bad! Expand it a bit, add airbags and side-impact beams, beef up its power-train, and it could be a pretty decent “cityZENN,” if you ask me.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for EEStor’s claims.
As for CARB… what a bunch of nitwits. Ah, well… we consumers will simply have to bring about the transition on our own. Pretty typical of government agencies, if you ask me. So sad.
Martin sez:
I’d be a lot more excited about EEStor if they demonstrated even one single capacitor that came close to meeting their energy density claims. I have so far seen nothing, zero, zilch. Weren’t they supposed to deliver production power packs to ZENN in 2007?
I could have secured exclusive rights to about a dozen magical technologies that were offered to Tesla while I was CEO – all of them allowing the Roadster to run without ever charging! Some produced so much energy that you would have enough left over to power your house too. Unfortunately, none of these inventors could quite show me one single working prototype…
Comment by Yanquetino March 28, 2008 @ 11:04 amGreat Slides Martin. You know Hawaii is just teeming with abundant energy sources. I would assume solar (if cost-effective) would have to be the best option for the island. I’ll tell you what, project better place has really got me excited. The announcement of Denmark going online now is huge. This plan could REALLY work. I was somewhat skeptical for awhile about battery swapping systems. Shai Agassi speaks of 7 – 20 second swap times. That’s amazing. Shai Agassi has strong partnerships, which helps to boast his credibility. I know Nissan can easily meet the demands of Agassi’s business plan. I see something in him and it’s powerful. As a side note, there is
Comment by Jeff Ulshafer March 28, 2008 @ 4:37 pma test project at the Penn State campus here. The college erected a small 3 Kw wind turbine. It is always windy on the campus. Starting yesterday it was operational, and let me tell you that it was working great. That turbine really rips. That thing will cut someone in half.
Martin,
Well if California doesn’t do it, Scandinavian countries just might as gas prices have just past 9$ per gallon mark there. You have any idea how real Nissan/PPP plans are?
Comment by Janne Karhunen March 28, 2008 @ 5:05 pmAloha Martin,
Thanks for mentioning what our students (www.seaburyhall.org/engineering) are doing to engineer a sustainable future. Thanks also for stopping-by our school to meet with the ‘kids’ while you were on Maui. We were all very inspired by the presentation you and Marc shared at the Focus Green event. It seems that you and many of the other presenters (e.g. Amory Lovins and Bill Nye) at this forum share the same vision for Hawaii and what it can and should be doing to wean itself from imported oil. Hawaii’s abundance of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, wave, geothermal, etc. coupled with our limited driving distances should compel us to become leaders in the innovation and implementation of EV and smart-grid technology. I think both the governor of Hawaii and the mayor of Maui have the same vision. However, there is always the bureaucracy one has to contend with when making progress in such realms. Maybe some other time I’ll tell you of all the hoops I had to jump through to install a net-metering PV system at my residence… Our mayor sponsored the first ever Maui County Energy Expo 2007 last November and not only did our engineering students attend, they gave a very polished presentation promoting EV’s (people tend to listen more intently when young people speak). Just recently our class toured the local wind farm and as a result we are in negotiations with UPC Wind Power to design and build an electric tour vehicle for their site. We also proposed a gondola/tram system to be used for possible revenue-generating tours. (That could be stretch considering how hard it was for them to get the wind turbines approved in the first place.) The views of the turbines and the rest of the island from the top of west Maui are breathtaking. As you say, Maui has the potential to become a sort of eco-destination that can advance need for renewable energy around the world. Our goal as educators is to instill these ideas within our students, the ones who have the greatest chance of making it all happen. Mahalo for sharing your message with the Maui community.
Martin Emde
Martin sez:
Thanks, Martin. Carolyn offered to take you out for a beer and trade stories about the hoops the power companies make us go through in order to give them free solar electricity. LA is supposed to be easy; it most definitely was not!
Comment by Martin Emde March 28, 2008 @ 5:07 pmMartin
Comment by charlie March 28, 2008 @ 7:08 pmAre you able to say how much it cost the big auto industry to produce the engine/transmission/transaxel in dollars per hp?
Also what is the cost projections of batteries in dollars per kwh?
Those two graphs would seem to be the dominant factors in how much ICE vs battery pack future car can make a competetive profit at.
charlie
Tom,
Thank you for your response. Much of what you wrote has merit and hopefully this is productive discussion for all.
I’m sure plenty of Hawaiian drivers could use 200+ mile range at some point, but it just seems that given the geography they would be comfortable with less range than mainland US drivers.
I am not a battery expert, but am an interested observer and have not seen it indicated 30% cycles vs 60% cycles for Lithium chemistries would have any significant affect on cycle life.
I agree there are base costs that do not get saved with reducing capacity, but I believe that a 110 mile pack will cost about 1/2 the price of a 220 mile pack. Not because it would be 1/2 the capacity, but reducing battery range by 1/2 significantly reduces weight and thus the battery battery capacity would be reduced by more than 1/2.
A 220 mile pack certainly has potentially more pack life, but one must use the pack enough to realize this potential. Let’s take the 220 mile Tesla pack as an example. According to Tesla’s website the battery is expected to last 100,000 miles or 5 years, whichever comes first. Battery life is determined by a lot of factors: rated cycle life, usage with rate of charge/discharge, charge level with temperature, time (calendar life), and depth of discharge. This is why Tesla says “or 5 years”. They are defining the useful life as 70% of initial capacity. To get 100,000 miles from the Tesla pack, you would have to drive 20,000/year or more given these expectations. For my current driving pattern, I could optimistically expect to get 30,000 miles out of a 220 mile pack and 25,000 miles from a 110 mile pack. Drivers that average 27 mile/per day or less will get minimally less use from 110 mile packs as they would from 220 mile packs, assuming they rarely need greater than the available range. Limited range, however, could be a deal killer for the smaller pack, since it would be expected to have 77 mile range at end of useful life. Thus, it is important for BEV manufacturers to consider the minimum range that targeted buyers will “need”.
Martin made a very astute observation that Solar cells are more appropriately judged by their cost/KWh rather than their energy conversion efficiency. Similarly, I strongly believe (perhaps foolishly) that EV battery packs for mainstream autos should be judged on cost/expected mile. By this I mean that the total pack cost should be divided by the total miles a driver can expect to achieve. This is also why I think there will need to be different range options, at least until battery prices comes down significantly. Incidentally this leads to another of Martin’s insights. Batteries have improved significantly and consistently for many years. Given the logical assumption that this will continue, one could more economically buy a battery that ends up lasting 1/2 as long as a higher capacity battery while still costing more than 1/2 as much. I don’t understand why so many people believe that the battery must last 10 years or the life of the vehicle or any arbitrary amount. What does it matter if 2 or more batteries over the life of the vehicle cost less or more importantly the cost/mile is less.
I do believe Tesla did a good job in sizing their battery pack for their targeted market, but other markets could be bettter served with different sizes.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 28, 2008 @ 7:32 pmMartín:
Yeah, I completely understand your reluctance to get goosebumps about EEStor’s ultra-capacitor. Either they are playing their cards extremely close to their chests or… they are masters at bluffing at the poker table, huh?
Even still, at least their deafenings silence isn’t causing much harm. We just have to wait and see if anything ever comes out of their labs. I can’t say the same for vociferous, headline-grabbing, in-your-face sheisters like Zap or Spark EV or Hybrid Technologies.
I think I prefer the silent type, come to think of it. If EEStor is also perpetrating another scam, at least it isn’t giving the public at large an aversion to anything with the initials EV attached to it. We should tar-and-feather those that do! If I see one more news release form Zap, I’m going to lose my cookies.
Comment by Yanquetino March 28, 2008 @ 7:39 pmMartin, when I wrote “The existing solar plant has provided 10% of the power on Maui in its first year of operation” I meant wind farm instead of solar plant. Dumb mistake, hopefully obvious from context.
I’m in pretty close agreement with you on all these issues; I just was unaware that Maui had done such a good job with dealing with the wind farm problems. My concern there was not so much for Hawaiians, who will benefit immensely from it, but for a possible negative impression about alternative energy being created among visitors. Of course I unreservedly agree that wind energy, or almost any other practical energy source, is better than imported petroleum for power generation.
As you point out elsewhere, energy storage is a major issue. That’s true in particular with interrupted sources like solar and wind. Wherever geothermal energy is practical, as it is in parts of Hawaii, e.g. http://www.punageothermalventure.com/PGV/17/power-generation which has been in operation for 15 years, I think it should be developed aggressively because it’s 24/7.
A mix of solar and wind seems like a good idea, because it’s often sunny with calm winds, and windy without direct sunlight.
Unfortunately, petroleum and refineries will still be part of the mix for a long time to come, to fill in for solar and wind idle periods, and to fuel the aircraft and automotive gas guzzlers. Hopefully their role can be reduced as much as possible.
Incidentally, I’m a huge fan of Maui, and hope to go back and stay someday if it’s still affordable. I like everything about it, from the obvious stuff like the fantastic weather, food, flora, sailing, scuba, snorkeling, the amazingly cheerful and friendly attitude of the people; and the not so obvious stuff like the extensive wilderness. My girlfriend and I hiked from the coast up through a dense bamboo forest to the foot of a spectacular waterfall, and didn’t see another person or any debris left by another person. The innocence and beauty and ecology of the island should be protected as much as possible, and I’m very happy to see the strong effort along those lines, even though sometimes it seems supercritical of new ideas.
Comment by Steve S. March 28, 2008 @ 7:41 pmMartin sez:
“I need to read the new regulations, but what I read in the press is pathetic. Remember that 1.5 million cars are sold in California every year. 7,500 EVs (and fuel cell cars!) by 2014 makes no difference at all.”
The press was a little misleading. It is (7,500 “pure” ZEV’s or 12,500 100+ range BEV’s) + (58,333 Silver+ Vehicles) OR (25,000 ZEV’s per previous requirements) for 2012-2014.
“Silver Plus”* Enhanced AT PZEV AT PZEV that uses a ZEV fuel such as electricity or hydrogen.
Examples include plug-in hybrids or hydrogen internal
combustion engine.
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/factsheets/2008zevfacts.pdf
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevreview/summary.pdf
It appears they have yet to fully define Silver+ Vehicles, but they must have some electric only range. Longer EV range may count more than short range. Vehicles that can complete US06 in EV only are being considered for extra credit.
Overall, it could have been better IMO giving available technology but not a terrible compromise. Make it federal.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 29, 2008 @ 6:49 amAbout EEStore technology
There are fundamental physics based limitations of any capacitor as energy storage. So far I could see that EEStore skillfully presented simlistic believable story about energy storage. It is hard to see definite weakness in it for sure even if you are a specialist. It is also obvious that EEStore avoid to make demo capacitor prototypes and instead concentrate on getting dielectric powder parameters. Latest move was that they hide under military secrecy. All these betray very skillful investment hunting skills just for money themselves without delivering real technology. Most likely founders of this were always aware that their technology will not work. But they used clever crafted story to hook investors and keep getting funding pumping in under false hope they skillfully cook.
Comment by Anatoly Moskalev March 29, 2008 @ 9:28 amExcellent slides Martin, can’t wait to see the video
Comment by Anton Gavrilov March 29, 2008 @ 3:22 pmYes, slides are excellent, but video would be better
Comment by Johan March 29, 2008 @ 5:42 pmMartin said,
“I remain convinced that the OEMs knew that they could get the ZEV mandate rewritten again before they had to actually produce any significant number of fuel cell cars. I believe this because the scientists at the OEMs knew all along that fuel cell cars would remain ridiculously expensive, and that hydrogen would not become America’s next fuel.”
I have another, additional idea as to why automakers side with hydrogen, one that I have never heard anyone propose.
Suppose you are an automaker and you can spend one billion dollars to get EVs to mass market in, let’s say, four years. Then you hear about fuel cells that are “the long term solution.” Fuel Cells are *supposed* to cost 2 billion dollars (of course in real life it is much, much more) and to get to mass market in 15 years.
Now, if you thought hydrogen was the final answer, would you pursue EVs in the meantime, only to spend billions more later on for the “final solution” ? No, you’d go for the final solution so you wouldn’t waste time and money on something that is only temporary.
Of course, this is all assuming the company actually has faith in hydrogen. Of course, I doubt any did because we all know that HYDORGEN SUCKS!!! But, between the thinking in the quote above, and the thinking I just outlined here, I can see how one can tell (lie) to themselves that hydrogen is the answer.
Comment by Joseph March 29, 2008 @ 6:47 pmI said,
“Fuel Cells are *supposed* to cost 2 billion dollars (of course in real life it is much, much more) and to get to mass market in 15 years.”
I meant for this to be part of the hypothetical situation. A better way to write it would be,
“Let’s say your engineers tell you that fuel cells are *supposed* to cost 2 billion dollars (of course in real life it is much, much more) and it will take 15 years to get to mass market.”
Can you please change this Martin?
Comment by Joseph March 29, 2008 @ 6:50 pmThis is for anyone interested that hasn’t already seen. Project Better Place Speech
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6115647726887047092
Comment by Jeff Ulshafer March 29, 2008 @ 8:54 pmOh my, Steve I’m really bothered by this:
Recently I posted reservations about wind farms as poster children for renewable energy, based on a visit to Tehachapi Pass. I did say I wondered if I were missing something. Indeed I was, although my concerns were quite valid. The people of Maui were even more concerned than I about the environmental problems of wind farms. In addition to a solution to the admittedly major noise and eyesore issues, they demanded studies on the possible effects on flora and fauna at the sites.
Most importantly, the existing farm and future ones have remote locations, inaccessible to tourists. They can’t be heard, and can be seen only at a considerable distance. Even that is troublesome to locals, because the existing farm is a small sore spot on a majestic skyline. Tourists probably won’t mind, and will probably think it’s interesting and even inspirational.
This is simply so wrong. I live in proximity to the windfarm (about as close as one can get for a neighborhood) and believe me it isn’t an eyesore when you compare it to the belching diesel plant on the shore below it. The whole “eyesore” garbage tends to come from a bunch of spoiled rich folks in S. Kihei and Wailea who somehow think looking across the bay and seeing a windfarm is asthetically displeasing but cannot see the eyesore neighborhoods in which they live, bloated McMansions that are often unoccupied much of the year, that I have to look at from the other side of the bay. The whole “eyesore” issue is bogus.
Maui residents by and large love the windfarm, there are no noise issues at all, and the environmental requirements were not “demanded” by residents but worked out between Kaheawa wind and Native Hawaiian elders who worked closely with the wind farm owners to ensure that not only would native flora and fauna be reintroduced to an area devastated by invasive species but that the windfarm construction was a great way to get into the area, remove unwanted invasives, catalog any native species that remained and engage in a major replanting of native species in the area. This was done eagerly by the windfarm, not under any “demands”.
The windfarm is anything but a sore spot on the skyline and the only sore spot for me is having to see and hear such silly statements from the uninformed.
David, I understand your concern about aging of battery packs and if your requirements for range and battery life are that different then it is a matter of finding a different vehicle than the Tesla. I suspect the Tesla is a vehicle that will be driven more than your range and thus not likely the best for you. As you illustrate there will also be a good market for more utilitarian vehicles (of the type similar to the retrofit Scion xB ebox from ACPropulsion) with shorter range.
As for comments about Hawaii (and Maui in particular) being great for solar (i.e. photovoltaics) it actually isn’t as good as, say, Colorado, where temperatures, insolation, and available power are better than here but the biggest problem with trying to use solar in any system as with having more windfarm capacity, is energy storage to both tide us over the nights and cloudy times but also to balance our small capacity grid so that the power quality is acceptable.
That’s why I’m such an advocate of pumped storage. I actually believe there’s a good potential for any of the companies here that have water rights (agricultural and MECO) to put in multiple pumped storage “batteries” that would be able to balance the system with sufficient hydro output 24/7 and the ability to store excess energy to as high water to run through a flexible hydro system that can increase and decrease its output to match system requirements.
If we do that we will truly make fossil fuels the “alternative” energy here on the island in terms of electricity generation in that the diesel power plants would then represent a much smaller portion of our grid generation but be available for backup (maybe even powered by bio-diesel because the demand would be lower) and the island’s energy sources would be spread out over photovoltaic, wind, wave, and hydro generation giving a healthy balance to a system where a failure of any one source would not jeopardize the entire system.
As Martin said, we can be a great test bed and example to the rest of the country.
Comment by Tom Elliot March 29, 2008 @ 11:55 pm“The whole “eyesore” garbage tends to come from a bunch of spoiled rich folks in S. Kihei and Wailea who somehow think looking across the bay and seeing a windfarm is asthetically displeasing”
This same thing happened when Senator Ted Kennedy had property that looked out over the ocean where a proposed wind farm was going to be located. He put an end to it.
If we could only store massive power easily. Then we could generate it all in a remote locations and ship it anywhere.
Sandia’s Z accelerator recently generated about 290 trillion watts which is supposed to be 80 times the world’s power output.
http://www.sandia.gov/media/z290.htm
Of course most people hate transmission lines, so whenever we learn how to harness this energy, we will probably have trouble distributing it unless we can store it efficiently.
Comment by Mark March 30, 2008 @ 3:31 amTom –
Comment by Roger Richardson March 30, 2008 @ 7:24 amIs geothermal not a part of the mix for Maui? The station on Hawaii seems to be proven technology and doesn’t seem to have large negative enviromental concerns. And it doesn’t have “downtime” as do the solar and wind technologies, so storage isn’t a concern.
the biggest problem with trying to use solar in any system [...] is energy storage to both tide us over the nights and cloudy times but also to balance our small capacity grid so that the power quality is acceptable
I’m tired of this argument. Energy storage isn’t required (or a problem) until there is more renewable energy online than can be used in real time, or until grid regulation becomes problematic.
Here on the mainland we’re not within a factor of 100 of having too much renewable energy, and I doubt you’re much closer in Hawaii. And what a great problem it would be to have!
Storage and smarter grids will be necessary in time, but we have a long way to go before those concerns are an excuse for not installing renewable generation.
Comment by O. Emry March 30, 2008 @ 7:40 amThat CARB would dilute the ZEV mandate even further is beyond comprehension. One would think that they might want to clean a bit of the egg off their face from their past decisions. Nope. “Throw another omelette at us, please.”
Here’s my question: if you were in charge of CARB, what would you propose to facilitate and accelerate the transition to clean, renewable energy for transportation?
IMHO, I think that CARB should completely forget about percentages (like before) or numbers and credits (like now).
The ZEV mandate should simply require that, by 2012, all the major auto manufacturers (and I would lower that “threshold” to include companies like Mitsubishi, Subaru, Volvo, etc.) must comply with these requirements:
* They must have a ZEV vehicle in their dealers’ showrooms, and at least one more on the lot for customers to test drive.
* Those ZEVs must be capable of a top speed of no less than 80 mph.
* They must have an emissions-free, EPA certified range of no less than 125 miles.
* They must meet federal safety standards.
* They must cost no more than 120% of the average base price of all the models in the same “class” sold by the parent company in the previous year.
* They must be deliverable to customers who purchase them within at least a 60-day period.
* For its part, CARB will establish the very best government incentives available to those who purchase the ZEVs (say, for example, tax deductions, no registration fees, no sales tax, carpool lane access, etc.,etc.).
* If the car manufacturers do not comply? They just can’t develop and produce the ZEVs fast enough to meet that deadline? Then make it legally possible for the dealers to secure their ZEVs from other sources without losing their franchises.
* And if the dealers do not comply? Then the state revokes their business licenses until the requirement is met. Period. THAT will get the auto companies moving, believe me.
I do not think that such a mandate is unreasonable. After all, the EV1 and the RAV4-EV were capable of that same speed and range back in 2002, so surely car manufacturers can do even better nowadays.
What kind of ZEV the car companies wish to provide should be left up to them –be it an electric car, a fool-cell vehicle, a series hybrid, or even one powered by a flywheel or a solar panel (ha!)— as long as it produces ZERO emissions for at least 125 miles. No more of CARB favoring one technology over another: let the technology itself decide.
And no more of this “no customer demand” excuse. If customers do not even know about the option, how can they demand it? This ZEV mandate would assure that customers DO know –and can decide accordingly. Get the ZEVs in the showrooms! Take advantage of the free market system instead of trying to thwart it.
Comment by Yanquetino March 30, 2008 @ 9:17 amJeff Ulshafer,
thanks for posting the link to Shai Agassi’s Project Better Place speech. Although I had heard of Shai and PBP before, I had not heard the speech. I found it quite compelling. I’m not sure that his numbers work quite as well for North America as for Israel (6 yrs gasoline cost at todays prices = one free car), but it seems to be a viable way to accelerate the adoption of EVs on a large scale. He certainly seems to have a realistic plan, with many elements already in place. I wish him the best of luck, and hope to see some of those vehicles on the roads in Canada within the next five years. Thanks again for the link.
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 30, 2008 @ 10:29 amRoger, Geothermal isn’t an option on Maui and the geothermal on the Big Island has not been universally well-received and I don’t know what the cost of production is or the realities of emission quality is (I’ve heard the reality is quite different from the hype but what I’ve heard is all anecdotal).
Mark, pumped storage is a highly flexible and scalable energy storage system and of course for our islands there is no grid bigger than any individual island. Plus, distributed generation is a far more secure and stable power supply environment than any system that tries to do it all at one location (that’s the biggest problem with nuclear in my opinion).
Comment by Tom Elliot March 30, 2008 @ 1:11 pmTom wrote,
—
“This is simply so wrong. I live in proximity to the windfarm (about as close as one can get for a neighborhood) and believe me it isn’t an eyesore when you compare it to the belching diesel plant on the shore below it. The whole “eyesore” garbage tends to come from a bunch of spoiled rich folks in S. Kihei and Wailea who somehow think looking across the bay and seeing a windfarm is asthetically displeasing but cannot see the eyesore neighborhoods in which they live, bloated McMansions that are often unoccupied much of the year, that I have to look at from the other side of the bay. The whole “eyesore” issue is bogus.”
—
Are you saying that the wind farm isn’t an eyesore because a diesel plant is belching? And because you don’t like the looks of rich folks’ neighborhoods? That sounds like fuzzy logic at best. Martin says that you can’t get within a mile of the wind farm; the inaccessible location was intentional. That helps with the noise problem. Hawaii is hardly a “test bed”—wind farms have long been in operation all over the world.
The idea that the “eyesore issue is bogus” is absurd. It’s very real and prominent and has an important consequences. The value of encreased development of alternative energy souces isn’t even controversial. As you know it’s mandated by state law. Even so, seveal proposed windfarm projects have been rejectected by citizens. Here are a few comments.
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From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_farm : Common issues that are shared within near-shore wind development zones are bird migration and nesting, aquatic habitat, transportation (including shipping and boating) and visual aesthetics. Residents near some sites have strongly opposed the installation of wind farms due to these concerns.
—
From local publications: “Maui residents have been generally receptive to wind power, putting aside their concerns about how the turbine towers look in the interest of encouraging renewable energy projects.
Makawao resident Bonnie Bonse said she feels the value of wind energy outweighs aesthetic values.
“I don’t look forward to seeing these huge things, but you’ve got to do something,” said Bonse, who is active in several environmental groups. “We have to do things like this to get away from oil.”
Generating energy from wind won’t necessarily reduce Maui customers’ electricity rates, which are among the highest in the nation, officials cautioned.”
—
“Community and cultural concerns effectively killed Hawaiian Electric Company’s $70 million proposal to build a windfarm above the Kahe power plant in 2005. The plan to place 24-26 wind mills on a ridge drew opposition from Wai’anae Coast residents who considered the turbines unsightly and believed they would desecrate a sacred Hawaiian place.”
—
A proposed expansion of the existing Maui facility was rejected, in favor of a proposed wind farm at a more remote location.
—
There’s even a proposal to build a windfarm in Lanai and transmit the energy to Oahu through massively expensive undersea cables:
“Despite consistent trade winds, Hawai’i gets little of its electric power from the wind. Because Castle & Cooke owns most of Lana’i, it may be able to avoid the type of public opposition that has tripped up windfarm plans in the past.”
Tom, perhaps if you had been present at the decisions to point out that “The whole “eyesore” garbage tends to come from a bunch of spoiled rich folks,” the outcomes might have been different.
Following the Superferry project made it apparent to me that Hawaiians are among the most environmentally concerned and active people on the planet, and the most concerned about preserving the state’s natural beauty. That pleases me, even though I think that the Superferry will be much better than the expensive, polluting and wasteful air service between the islands.
The simple fact is that the Maui windfarm would not have been allowed to happen without comprehensive environmental impact surveys. Does that not meet your definition of “demand?” I’ve never complained about paying income tax, and in fact I’m proud to help support my nation, but I wouldn’t say that the government doesn’t demand that I pay it.
As regards solar, successful concentrated thermal plants and photovoltaics are options. They may be more suited to Hawaii than windfarms:
“The situation in Hawaii is much different. Typically the strongest winds are trade winds which are often, euphemistically, called the island “air-conditioner.” When the trade winds blow the islands are cooler and the electrical demand is less.
The hottest periods are when the trade winds weaken and the Kona winds blow. These winds are typically much weaker than the trade winds, and much less consistent. They also usually bring much higher humidity levels which impact on the comfort level of island residents. The hottest days are days when the wind hardly blows at all.
All of this works together to mean that when the demand for electricity increases due to higher temperatures and higher humidity the consistent winds needed to power the wind turbines falls off rather than increases as it does in Gorgonio Pass. Therefore, just when the peak demand for electricity increases wind power in the islands would typically fall off. Not an ideal situation.”
—
As concerns pumped storage, here’s part of a Wiki article:
“The relatively low energy density of pumped storage systems requires either a very large body of water or a large variation in height. For example, 1000 kilograms of water (1 cubic meter) at the top of a 100 meter tower has a potential energy of about 0.272 kW•h. The only way to store a significant amount of energy is by having a large body of water located on a hill relatively near, but as high as possible above, a second body of water. In some places this occurs naturally, in others one or both bodies of water have been man-made.”
Tom, you seem to rely heavily on your own off-the-cuff opinions, and don’t have much respect for others’, or for research. That’s pretty common in blogs. More disturbing is your cavalier dismissal of a concern for preserving the state’s natural beauty as much as is practical.
The good news in all of this is that the Maui wind farm is successfully providing 10% of the island’s energy, and that the problems inherent in wind farms have been very well addressed.
Do you really think my opinions are “silly and uninformed”?
Comment by Steve S. March 30, 2008 @ 4:33 pmGlobal Air Pollution
http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/magazine/apr08/alacarte.asp
Comment by AMP March 30, 2008 @ 9:34 pmMartin
Thanks for the talk on Maui it was well prepared and well presented. I enjoyed it completely. Did you get your car yet?
Phil
Martin sez:
Not yet!
Comment by Phil March 30, 2008 @ 11:21 pmYanq,
In time, you will have the automakers greatly exceeding all your requirements. The latest CARB rules give credit to automakers for trying several intermediate steps towards the end result. This allows the marketplace to choose the technology / price tradeoffs they are willing to make at this time, and we will see the mix of solutions changes as technologies increase while prices come down.
At this moment, only a small percentage of people can afford to buy a $100K Roadster, but many more can afford a $40K Volt, and even more can afford a $35K Prius, each costing less and performing less, but still better than the alternative.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 31, 2008 @ 9:54 amIt makes sense that producers of fuel cells would also be producers of the infrastructure needed to support them:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/energy/article/quantum-supply-modular-hydrogen-refueling-station-shell-hydrogen_539305_11.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler March 31, 2008 @ 10:23 amSteve,
I’m not saying at all that the windfarm isn’t an eyesore but that the diesel plant is or that Wailea is, the point is that such things are relative and complaining about the windfarm as an eyesore, in the midst of many other things about which the same can be said, is narrow and misguided, to say nothing of shallow thinking. This is certainly not unique to Maui, it is a common complaint in areas where windfarms are to be built within sight of communities yet it is highly illogical thinking. People are seeing something new and automatically concluding that it is an “eyesore” simply because it is different when they are surrounded by “eyesores” of all kinds to which they’ve become accustomed.
Also, my comment about Maui as a testbed has little to do with the idea that a windfarm is something new, by reading what I’ve written here you ought to at least get the idea I know more than a little about energy, energy policy and alternative systems. I’ve been involved in them for years (though no longer directly here on the island), that’s just a silly statement on your part.
You don’t say which local publications you are citing with those quotes but cherry picking like that isn’t really evidence of anything other than a diversity of opinion. What Kaheawa wind did that other projects didn’t do was to seek out Hawaiian Kupuna and input from local groups as to their concerns ahead of time, other projects that were criticized generally didn’t do that and paid for it. That sort of consideration of Hawaiian culture is an essential part of any project like that in this state and woe be unto them who don’t take it into consideration. That’s what I meant by my comments that Kaheawa wasn’t forced to do things by local residents, they worked in cooperation with locals to address concerns including bird impacts (always way overblown, thanks to Altamont) and native flora and fauna. The migration issue isn’t that important here on Maui as it would be other places because there is limited migration in this region.
Also, the expansion of Kaheawa hasn’t been rejected at all, just put on hold since the Ulupalakua project was already in the pipeline and includes a pumped storage component which MECO feels is necessary if wind is to become a bigger percentage of their generation package. Also, Kaheawa provided, overall, about 8% of the total power in its first year of operation and there are ongoing engineering issues related to the interfact between the variable wind power output and the limited size of the grid generation on the island. The balance is touchy and the MECO engineers are always grumbling about it, that’s why they are looking to the Ulupalakua project before expansion of Kaheawa. They’ll get used to it though.
The comprehensive environmental impact studies are a basic requirement, not anything special “demanded” by the public over any other project (except the Superferry and the public demanded it but the government ignored us).
Oh, and I was present and was a testifier at the environmental impact hearing for Kaheawa.
As to the Superferry, it is far from being friendlier than an airplane. It burns massive amounts of fuel, carries about 20% of its capacity of cars and people when it operates and does little to address any real need here in the islands. It has also been in drydock for almost two months now and operated intermittently when it was even in the water since Kauai effectively prevented that half of the proposed service from even happening. It is an overpriced piece of junk that if it were a car would have been returned to the dealer as a lemon long ago.
As to the quote you have about trade winds that is pretty generic stuff and doesn’t reflect reality very well. Kona winds are actually quite rare here, occurring in winter when conditions are right. In the winter we have calm periods that can last up to two weeks (rarely more) but even in winter the prevailing winds are trade winds, just not necessarily as strong. But just to point out how variable that can be our biggest and strongest wind periods since last summer were two weeks of cool Kona winds with storms in December and 3 weeks of powerful trade winds in January.
Also, from a temperature standpoint the islands aren’t universally cooled by the tradewinds nor heated only in calm periods. Try visiting Lahaina in the summer (the name means “cruel sun” in Hawaiian) or Kihei for that matter, the tradewinds don’t help much. The windfarm isn’t just for peak demand, our generating capacity on this island from all sources is 250MW and our usage ranges from 160 to 210MW with occasional peaks above that (the system needs redundancy so it never reaches capacity, if it did we’d be in real trouble). So the windfarm is a benefit no matter when it operates and any savings in fuel usage is a good thing. But our power costs are still 36 cents per Kilowatthour and rising, having gone up about 1/3 this past year alone. And yeah, those high costs make grid-tied PV a really good idea, if I were building a home I’d definitely put on as much as I could afford, the payback would be relatively short.
As for the practicality of pumped storage here on Maui, that Wiki article starts with a reference to putting a tank on a tower then references using hills nearby. We have one of those, maybe you’ve heard of it, Haleakala? The existing moderate sized hydro plant operated by HC&S uses water brought down the mountain to their irrigation system to generate energy on the way through and the County is already talking of the need to create more water storage anyway on the mountain to handle residential needs. Putting pumped storage in as part of these would be a no-brainer to me, allowing of course for the dual use nature of the system in its design.
Tom, you seem to rely heavily on your own off-the-cuff opinions, and don’t have much respect for others’, or for research. That’s pretty common in blogs. More disturbing is your cavalier dismissal of a concern for preserving the state’s natural beauty as much as is practical.
Nothing off the cuff at all, I live here and am involved and active in land and sea based environmental issues, as I said I was a testifier at the hearings for Kaheawa and work with cetacean rescue and the Monk Seal project. This is my home, not just some ideal viewed from a distance. Maybe if you lived here you’d understand there is more to what is happening here than your distant research might indicate.
No Steve, all of your opinions aren’t silly and misinformed but when you make statements that are I’ll point them out.
Comment by Tom Elliot March 31, 2008 @ 11:24 amUltraconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (UMES)
Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage is presently a commercial technology. Wikipedia says: Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) systems store energy in the magnetic field created by the flow of direct current in a superconducting coil which has been cryogenically cooled to a temperature below its superconducting critical temperature.
A typical SMES system includes three parts: superconducting coil, power conditioning system and cryogenically cooled refrigerator. Once the superconducting coil is charged, the current will not decay and the magnetic energy can be stored indefinitely. …SMES loses the least amount of electricity in the energy storage process compared to other methods of storing energy. SMES systems are highly efficient; the round-trip efficiency is greater than 95%. …Due to the energy requirements of refrigeration and the high cost of superconducting wire, SMES is currently used for short duration energy storage.
Ultraconductors are little known, ambient temperature, materials that are expected to perform all the functions of superconductors at room temperature. They are expected to be competitive in cost with copper wire in mass production.
Once they are made into long wires, and assuming they sustain as expected, maintaining persistent currents, UMES are likely to perform at least as well as superconductors, only without the expensive and complex cryogenic cooling or high cost of the superconducting materials.
A scientist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory invented a technique of fabricating SMES perhaps eight feet in diameter. These could be produced in a factory and easily transported to their ultimate location. Several could be stacked and linked together by utilities to provide whatever amount of energy storage was needed. This would allow base load power plants to run at constant speed all day and night with great economic and fuel saving advantages. Peaks and valleys of electricity demand would no longer be a major concern.
UMES can also be made compact enough to use in vehicles – an alternative to batteries or ultracapacitors.
Four Small Business Innovation Research contracts, including a competitive Phase II have been completed on Ultraconductors. They have been independently reproduced for the USAF by Fractal Systems.
Martin, or others who may be interested, please contact me privately for additional information.
Comment by Mark Goldes March 31, 2008 @ 11:39 amHi Martin,
I was wondering if you are aware of a company called Lithium Technology Corporation. I would guess that you are, but just in case, here’s a link to their site:
http://www.lithiumtech.com/index.html
I came across them last year when I was looking for components for a possible EV conversion project. It looks like their main focus is lithium iron phosphate batteries (which is the type that I think Shai Agassi is contemplating using in the PBP vehicle, based on cycle life… ). I think I remember you saying somewhere that this type of battery had a low energy density, and that’s part of the reason why you went with the LiCoO2 cells. Maybe I have that wrong. It was probably also related to price and availability too. Anyway, I was wondering if anything has changed that would make you consider using LiFePO4 on any (hypothetical) future project? I realize that the energy density issue remains the same, but what about price & availabilty. Also, with no thermal runaway issues with LiFePO4, there’s no need for a cooling system. Doesn’t that help to compensate for lower energy density?
Whatever insight you can share on this subject, I would be grateful to hear.
All the best,
Chris H.
Martin sez:
LiFePO4 us useful when you care most about power output and cycle life – such as is the case for small-range EVs or PHEVs with short electric range. Other chemistries are also suitable for these applications, such as the LiMn cells from Sony, which seem to be better than the LiFePO4 cells in most ways.
Cooling in a battery pack is not about preventing thermal runaway. Cells do not fail this way due to lack of cooling. Cooling in a battery pack is primarily there to extend the life of the battery – most chemical reactions go more slowly when cool, and this is true for all lithium-based formulas that I have seen, including LiFePO4. Battery chemists I’ve spoken to suggest that 25 degrees Celsius is a good compromise between longevity and internal resistance (which goes up as you cool the cell).
Note, by the way, that a LiFePO4 cell can also go into thermal runaway, and when it does, it is quite dramatic. I have done it myself… But whereas a typical LiCo cell will runaway when the external temperature reaches about 180 degrees Celsius, the LiFePO4 went at around 220 degrees.
Comment by Chris Harvey March 31, 2008 @ 11:46 amTom, pumped water sounds like a great complement to adding renewables to your mix as any efficient energy storage method could be. Doesn’t solar and wind suffer from similar intermittent issues and thus benefitting similarly from pumped water. BEV’s could has be considered in this storage equation. Tesla and Martin have always touted the synergies of BEV’s and solar. This could be especially true for Hawaii. But it will take some forethought and planning to take most advantage of the opportunities. I believe, and correct me if I’m wrong, most charging of BEV’s would occur at night under current conditions. Those conditions being more access the outlets at the home and perhaps less expensive night time power rates. If Hawaii wants to encourage BEV’s and solar, then a significant amount of energy storage will be needed if the bulk of charging is done at night. But, if grid tied systems are returned at daytime rates and incentives are put in place to provide workplace (daytime) charging, then significant amounts of daytime solar can supply the added demand of BEV’s. Perhaps there should be a bonus incentive for businesses to install charging stations and solar in tandem.
Has there been thought to the benefits of V2G. The Hawaiian Islands seem to be an ideal situation for implementing V2G functionality. Batteries are way too expensive to be used for bulk power delivery on a regular basis, but for buffering and unusually high peak demands it could be a huge benefit, especially with increased intermittent renewables on the grid. This would obviously have to be implemented very delicately to create the necessary comfort level for the consumer.
Project Better Place has gotten a lot of press lately and their concept also seems very well suited for Hawaii. Implementing a concept like project better place on the mainland would take a tremendous amount of time and with an almost inconceivable amount of expense. These issues are greatly mitigated in Hawaii. Of course so is the market, but it does seem more feasible.
You’re correct. The Roadster is not for me, as much as I like it 2 seats aren’t enough. The Whitestar could be, but if I’m forced to buy twice that battery I could readily use then it won’t be either unless there are no other options. A range extended vehicle will hopefully be my next car. Time will tell.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 31, 2008 @ 4:45 pmTom, I was glad to see that you weren’t bothered by my post. I regretted having perhaps been more oppositional than I intended. Life’s too short. We should just agree to disagree. I certainly don’t mind if you criticize my opinions in the future, but I won’t often be able to reciprocate. I already have a full time job, one that’s even more interesting than this.
I could have provided links to all the sources of the articles I quoted, and I usually would, but this blog has a spam filter that rejects posts with more than a few hyperlinks. At any rate, I didn’t have any illusion of changing your mind. I just wanted to draw you out a little on some of those subjects, like illogical thinking. Do you have any thoughts on non-sequiturs?
One last quote that I forget to include last time provides, unless I misunderstood it, an alternative take to yours:
Business News (Honolulu), February 7, 2008:
A Maui wind farm operator has filed a complaint against Maui Electric Co. and its parent, Hawaiian Electric Co., with the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission.
UPC Hawaii Holdings, which runs the Kaheawa Wind Power farm above Maalaea, is asking the commission to investigate the process the utility used in selecting a second wind farm project for the island.
UPC Hawaii had proposed expanding its current 20-turbine farm, which supplies 30 megawatts of power to Maui Electric, to add another 21 megawatts of power.
But HECO selected another project bid by Shell Wind for a farm in Ulupalakua on the east side of Maui.
HECO spokesman Peter Rosegg said the decision was based on location.
“On a small grid like Maui’s, there’s a limit to how much intermittent wind power the system can take without impacting reliability for customers,” Rosegg said. “Having two wind farms in two locations with two different wind regimes will make it possible to accept more wind on Maui’s system.”
But the wind farm operator says it believes HECO did not “negotiate in good faith” and that its decision wasn’t in line with state PUC rules and federal bidding policies.
“UPC Hawaii has worked diligently and in good faith in this process and has invested a great deal of time and money in getting it right,” said Vice President Mike Gresham in a statement. “The utility created and conducted its own form of mini-competitive bidding based on its own requirements and evaluation criteria.”
The complaint asks the PUC to review HECO’s evaluation process.
UPC Hawaii is a partnership between UPC Wind Partners of Newton, Mass., and Makani Nui Associates based on Maui. The company financed and built the Kaheawa Wind Farm in June 2006, and says the generated energy accounts for about 9 percent of Maui’s electrical power.
—
I’ll risk a couple of links, first to the superferry site, in case anyone is interested in alternative transportation:
http://www.hawaiisuperferry.com/about-us/community/default.html
The other is to Haleakala: http://www.nps.gov/archive/hale/pages/tier_one/home.htm
A place geographically somewhat similar, from a pumped-storage perspective, is Yosemite in California. It has a large vertical height difference in a relatively small area. It’s nowhere near as beautiful as Haleakala, admittedly. Would that seem to you like a good site for a test lab pumped storage project, maybe in collaboration with Martin? It has the advantage of not being all that far from where he lives.
Martin sez:
Don’t worry too much about the links. All that happens is that your post will get held until I get around to approving it – usually within an hour or two. I only chuck the ones that are either actual spam (deals on Viagra, enhancements for various body parts, etc.) or seriously offensive..
Comment by Steve S. March 31, 2008 @ 7:03 pmI enjoyed the slide presentation but slide 11 and 12 state “storage efficiency=electricity in/electricity out”
Would it really be Electricity Out/Electricity In? Always have to put more electricity In than you will get Out, making this number less than 1. Thanks for disspelling the fuel cell notion.
- Police cars here in the desert always opt for white hoods and trunks. It’s proven a white trunk is 20 degrees cooler, keeps all the radio equipment cooler, and a white hood prevents overheating when idleing. I assumed Martins car would be the same color as his blog pic.
-LifeBatt came to our EV meeting and has LiIon (Iron Phosphate) batteries for sale in the Las Vegas area! Things are starting to get exciting if EV consumers can buy these!
-I heard the people in Hawaii don’t like America and want to break away?
-Martin did you take EE386 Control Systems with Kuo in the early 80’s? I did, we may have been classmates!
Martin sez:
Sheesh. I’ve been using that slide forever and didn’t catch that typo! Thanks. And yes, I took Kou’s excellent class, so we probably were there together.
And my orange-striped car will be WAY cooler than any white car could hope to be
Comment by Patman3 March 31, 2008 @ 10:22 pmHydrogen roll-out is progressing slowly, along with BEV’s, but progressing none the less:
http://www.fuelcellsworks.com/Supppage8610.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 1, 2008 @ 11:04 amThe Google April Fools joke http://www.google.com/virgle/index.html got me thinking. The Subaru RE-1 looks really good driving around on our streets. Maybe if the purchase of thousands of them were guaranteed by two young billionaires, with the provision that they make a series of production deadlines for the US market, we could see a lot of them driving around sometime in the near future. To appeal to their vanity it could be a special model called the Suboogle, or even better, the Goobaru.
A program like that with Subaru or another brand could actually do some good, if the right person could be found to create and administrate it.
Comment by Steve S. April 1, 2008 @ 1:24 pmBy the way, is there any word about whether Chairman Musk is threatening to sue Google and Branson? It’s pretty obvious that he’s the butt of their April Fools joke.
Comment by Steve S. April 1, 2008 @ 1:34 pmSteve S.,
I checked out the Virgle sppof, but I didn’t find any mention of Elon Musk in the site – can you show me how it is a joke on Elon?
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 1, 2008 @ 3:19 pmHi Jason,
I think that what Steve is referring to is that Elon’s “other job” is CEO of SpaceX, and one of his stated aims is to “help make life multi-planetary”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onajosm9PWo
A modest goal, to be sure. Elon also manages to make light of Branson’s Virgin Galactic project in this interview, which may provide some impetus for RB to poke a little fun back at EM. Perhaps I’m wrong, and maybe I should just let Steve S. speak for himself, but that’s the connection I saw.
BTW, Steve, I don’t know if you’re the first to use the “Chairman Musk” moniker, but it’s pretty funny anyway.
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 1, 2008 @ 4:53 pmHi Martin,
thanks for your insight regarding matching battery chemistries with specific EV requirements. I guess if I ever want to build an electric dragster I would go with LiFePO4, but if I want range I need to go for LiCoO2. While I was doing a little additional research I came across another battery chemistry that I was previously unaware of called lithium vanadium oxide, which supposedly has double the energy density of LiCoO2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#Manganese_Spinel_Cathodes
(Under “Breakthrough Research”) It sounds promising, but I don’t know if there are any commercially available cells or how it compares to LiCo in cost. Then, of course, there is the silicon nanowire technology from Stanford, coming to a lab near you… actually, I guess it is in a lab pretty near you already. Yi Cui says he wants to commercialize that technology within 5 years, just in time for your Roadster’s first ESS replacement! I wonder if it’s possible to combine the silicon nanowire anodes with LiMn or LiFePO4 cathodes in the same cell???? What do you think?
Anyway, I heard that you’re going to be the keynote speaker at IBM’s Impact 2008 in Vegas next week, so I hope that goes well. All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 1, 2008 @ 5:45 pmRe: windmills and birds.
There have been many studies on the issue. Bottom line. Birds aren’t that stupid to fly into a spinning blade. They do fly into windows a bit more. Like a thousand times more.
The Audubon Society (the bird people) have publicly endorsed windmills sighting their low impact to the environment especially when compared to most other power generating alternatives (and glass).
Comment by vfxx April 1, 2008 @ 6:50 pmThe National Audobon Society “strongly supports wind power as a clean alternative energy source.”
This is from the Audubon site:
“Audubon supports the adoption of federal and state guidelines on the study, siting, operation and mitigation of wind power. Guidelines should provide developers, permitting agencies and conservation groups with the legal, technical and practical steps needed to minimize impacts on birds and other wildlife.” One of the guidelines is “Clearly delineated siting criteria that designate areas where wind power should not be allowed, such as Important Bird Areas, major migratory corridors, wilderness areas, national parks, wildlife refuges, and other sensitive habitat such as wetlands and riparian corridors.”
This United Press International article, http://www.upi.com/Energy/Analysis/2006/12/22/analysis_is_wind_power_for_the_birds/3590/ , a pretty good overview, mentions that the Mass. Audubon Society estimates that wind turbines kill between 2,300 and 6,600 birds annually. The American Wind Energy Association, not the Audubon, makes some eyebrow lifting claims that, when combined with Audubon’s, would yield around 40,000,000 bird deaths caused by humans every year. Could bias be involved in the stats?
The short version is, “…aside from Altamont Pass, bird impact has been relatively low.” That no doubt has a lot to do with more resposible site selection after Altamont.
As is well known, a large number of big raptors like eagles have been killed there, leading to legal maneuvering and concern by environmentalists.
Chris, you’re right. The April Fools comment was made in jest, but it contained an element of truth. Here’s an old link, the first one I found: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=3698 . The legend is that launching into low earth orbit was found to be so prohibitively expensive that resources were redirected from Mars colonization into trying to address that issue.
I wouldn’t have made that jest, but every time I see a video with the Chairman taking full credit for the roadster, it makes me cringe.
Comment by Steve S. April 1, 2008 @ 9:26 pmChris Harvey / Steve S.,
Thanks for linking me to Elon Musk’s interviews, both vid and text.
I didn’t think Elon’s video treatment of Virgin Galactic was harsh, although he might have stated it better.
Virgin Galactic (VG) is endevouring a completely different goal than Space-X. VG is trying to achieve a low cost, re-usable, quick turn-around vehicle as its first goal, and will extend its capabilities, as the first goals are met. VG is actually brilliant in its simplicity, achieving re-entry at low speeds using variable geometry craft, as opposed to the Space Shuttle, which requires high maintenance ceramic tiles to handle the high speed re-entry.
Space-X is indeed a “loftier” performance target, and results in greater expense. It is a great way to pick up, where the Space Shuttle ends, to keep the Space Station work going.
I believe VG will evolve to eventually ferry passengers to the Space Station, and around the moon, in low cost, re-useable, quick turn-around craft. I believe Space-X will evolve to create high performance interplanetary vehicles. They really aren’t in competition.
Martin sez:
I really doubt that the VG approach will ever be more than a joy ride. The trouble is that it just can’t carry enough energy. It takes something like 7 times as much energy to achieve orbit as it does merely to reach low-orbit altitude. (You need a high horizontal component as well as a vertical component.) The VG plane simply can’t do that.
On the other hand, the VG prototype, Spaceship 1 achieved it’s design goal 3 times, whereas all SpaceX has done is make some interesting exploding fireworks…
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 2, 2008 @ 5:38 amMartin,
You are correct that the latest VG won’t achieve orbital flight, but I believe that the next gen VG vehicle could, if designed for it (larger, with more fuel capacity, etc.). You are also correct that VG vehicles will always be more of a ferryboat, than a workhorse. Rockets are for load carrying tasks, while a VG type config is for human comfort, etc. I think it would be a good idea for the space station to keep a VG vehicle docked for emergencies, so that occupants could float back to Earth, if someone / everyone needed to get home to Earth immediately.
I think VG will start simple, and encroach on the Space-X capabilities for humans (not payloads) slowly and surely, but never really going past human flights to / around the Earth and moon.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 2, 2008 @ 8:22 amMartin,
As for paintjobs onb vehicles, if we were playing cars with blocks of wood, I would prefer the block of wood with racing stripes. There are some cars whose forms are themselves a work of art and don’t require embellishments. White is an excellent color to show-off that shape, especially if you are driving under streetlights or through autumn forest roads, where light and color is reflected and moves across the vehicles form.
I saw a white Chevy Avalanche in which even the bed plastic was white, as with the Cadillac Escalade EXT, kinda like this:
http://thumbs.automart.com/imgs/ag/automart/cst/165/299/6/511/113/77/feed/thumb/10420031530011000.jpg
I was amazed by the form. For me, the paint should not create the look of the vehicle, but reveal it. That said, I do like those old white mustangs with the single blue Shelby stripe on them – kind of a best of both worlds thing.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 2, 2008 @ 8:34 amSteve,
I’m fully aware of the issues between Kaheawa and MECO/HECO because I’ve had discussions with both sides. MECO is right from an engineering standpoint but tends to be unimaginative when it comes to solutions (even those which would be to their benefit) which is frustrating Kaheawa/UPC. UPC just got signed up with the state for a pilot program to develop energy storage. They are going to go the battery route, likely trying large military batteries of an as-yet-unspecified type but they have no real water resources. It seems like an odd way to go to me but operations like Kaheawa don’t have access to their own distribution system since MECO owns all the lines and so they can’t initiate their own pumped storage in combination their existing site on the West Maui Mountains. Plus, the West Maui Mountains are not accessible at all in their interiors, the wind site is on a non-forested dry southern ridge, and the rain forest is a major water supply for agricultural and residential use.
Your link to the Superferry is hilarious. Believe, the thing is not only a lemon it is economically unfeasible and always has been. Most people here outside of State government, even those that like the darn thing, pretty much agree it will never make any money and won’t last. To have it be out of service due to weather and operating damage for most of the time since service began is merely icing on the cake. We don’t need it, we don’t want it and it adds nothing to the state transportation pool. But Admiral Lehman has pretty deep political connections and apparently there is some personal profit in this for enough people that they ran with it but basically it’s a scam.
This link: http://www.hawaiisuperferry.com/images/pdfs/HSF-Drydock-Extended2.pdf
really says it all.
As for the Haleakala link, that’s to the Park, which is the very summit of the mountain. Remember, Haleakala is just over 10,000 feet high and we have access to all 10,000 feet. Human habitation, ranches, farms and homes, extend up at least 5000 feet and a 1000 foot elevation difference between resevoirs in a pumped storage system would be very easy to achieve without impacting the mountain significantly. As I said the county is already looking at more storage capacity anyway and that would be located at sufficient elevation to provide power also.
Also, pumped storage is more common than you’d think and there is no need for any testing of the technology. The public utility in Colorado has had a pumped storage facility operating for decades on Guanella Pass above Georgetown where they use cheap overnight power to “charge the battery” and then run it downhill during high-demand periods when they can charge more. A perfect example of “buy low, sell high” (and “store high, sell low” now that I think about it).
Tom
Comment by Tom Elliot April 2, 2008 @ 10:07 amMartin,
Are you and/or your wife going to book a flight on VG?
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 2, 2008 @ 1:00 pm“On the other hand, the VG prototype, Spaceship 1 achieved it’s design goal 3 times, whereas all SpaceX has done is make some interesting exploding fireworks…”
Understably you are pissed with Elon and justifyably so but I think it is important to give credit where credit is due.
I assume that Elon was not the first individual / group you approached to get Tesla Motors off the ground. Look at Ian Wright still floundering without funding in what is now a very hot market for EVs and green tech. So regardless of how poorly Elon and the rest of the board handled your ousting and regardless of how stupid it was for Elon to push the 2 speed tranmission he deserves some kudos for steping up with funding in the first place.
With regards to spacex, I think we should all be rooting for this company regardless of how much of an ass Elon may be. It seems disingenious to dismiss the work of spacex as some “fancy fireworks.” Did you see the most recent flight? There are 500 exceptional people independent of Elon at spacex doing some amazing work that should not be dismissed. I am a huge fan of Martin and what he accomplished with Tesla but I think you do a disservice to yourself with any off hand Elon / spacex bashing.
Comment by Pete April 2, 2008 @ 2:15 pmRegarding all the talk of Space-X taking us to Mars… Recent news stories have been saying that cosmic radiation will likely make such a trip too dangerous:
Article 1
Article 2
Also, EM has been to RB’s private island a few times now as far as I can tell. Those “Billionaires heading to space” RB & EM seem to cross paths frequently.
Comment by TEG April 2, 2008 @ 2:20 pmArticle 1
Article 2
Article 3
Article 4
# Martin wrote:
## I think the regulations require 60,000 plug-in hybrids – not just lame hybrids like the 31 mpg Lexus RX400h.
Isn’t 31MPG better than the ~20 it would get without the hybrid treatment? Toyota/Lexus do some hybrids for more power (as apposed to the max fuel economy Prius). The RX400h can pull a big trailer or boat unlike a Prius.
And then there is the 6 liter GM Tahoe Hybrid the so called “Green Car of the Year” which does only 21MPG…
If you can’t convince everyone to get out of SUVs, at least make them more efficient than the gasoline only versions…
Anyways, I agree that the CARB regulations shouldn’t just allow any hybrids, and should encourage very high MPG hybrids, and plug-in hybrids, but calling the RX400h “lame” was perhaps a bit much in my mind.
Comment by TEG April 2, 2008 @ 5:51 pmRe: Virgin Galactic
Comment by Roy April 2, 2008 @ 5:55 pmTheir spaceship does not require heat shielding tiles because it doesn’t go fast enough. If they build future versions capable of orbital flight they will have to address the heat shield issue.
Elon said he bought a ticket on VG’s flight, he certainly supports their efforts.
Thanks, Mark, for the link to Ultraconductors. This is good news indeed and will certainly leave its mark in the EV business with smaller, lighter and more powerful motors made with ultraconductor wires.
There is also a company http://www.lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/ that is looking for research money because they think they can build a “Mr. Fusion”. I hope they find an Angel investor, because if it works it could be THE major solution to the world’s energy problems. All they are looking for is about $1M for proof of concept.
Thanks, TEG, for pointing out that those guys hang out together. It’s an eye-opener. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised because I knew about the rope into space (my description) that the Google founders were touting a few years ago. That’s almost as ridiculous as the Mars colonization schemes.
My view is that the unmanned space explorations have been some of the crown jewels of human history, yielding information and photographs fascinating to every interested person on the planet. The manned flights (called “spam in a can” by the early astronauts) were and are a huge waste of resources and several lives with very little scientific return. That money could have been much better spent on unmanned missions, and on more and better space telescopes.
As for paying money to take a joyride into space, here’s a comment by Wally Schirra, who spent over 295 hours in space:
“Mostly it’s lousy out there,” Schirra said. “It’s a hostile environment, and it’s trying to kill you.”
http://www.tfw2005.com/boards/archive/index.php/t-132199.html
Lately Martin has been attacked for or baited by everything from the color of his car to his description of exploding rockets. Everyone else calls them “failures” or sometimes “spectacular failures” and rightly so. “Fireworks” is a kinder, gentler, word.
Chiding him for not properly appreciating what the Chairman has done for him is one of the most astonishing examples of verbal presumption I’ve ever heard of.
Comment by Steve S. April 2, 2008 @ 11:11 pmRoy,
If VG creates a launch design that doesn’t achieve high speeds until the craft is high above the atmosphere, wouldn’t the need for heat shields be eliminated? Perhaps the VG personnel vehicle could be enclosed in a large nose of a rocket, until the final stage high above the atmosphere, then emerge for orbital maneuvers and re-entry.
Also, couldn’t the VG ship use the “feather” approach to re-entry, so that the ship never achieves high speeds on the way down?
Martin sez:
I just don’t think the VG approach can carry enough energy to achieve orbital velocity. 7X is HUGE… Remember that not only does it need the energy, it also needs the energy to lift the the fuel.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 3, 2008 @ 5:05 amJason, you’re a little bit confused. What the feather provides is a way for the ship to be automatically oriented for proper reentry. The analogy Burt Rutan makes is that of a shuttlecock. No matter how you toss it, it always lands the same way. Of course this increases drag and slows decent some. But the main reason VG doesn’t need massive heat shields is because it doesn’t need to dissipate the energy anywhere near that which is involved with orbital flight.
Comment by Doug@Stanford April 3, 2008 @ 5:33 amThanks, Roy, for your comment about our Ultraconductors.
The parent firm, Magnetic Power Inc. is developing power sources that we believe will soon demonstrate the ability to replace batteries.
A solid-state predecessor was demonstrated by Hans Coler, a German inventor, in 1926. This link is to an update on the Coler story on our MPI website:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/story?id=52006
The implications of this new energy resource for aerospace applications are very much of interest to us.
However, we do not expect anyone with a background in science or engineering will believe these new systems are possible until they can examine and test a unit.
We hope to have EarthTech international evaluate a solid-state, self-sustaining generator in the near future. Perhaps, with a bit of luck, by the end of April.
Comment by Mark Goldes April 3, 2008 @ 6:02 amDoug@Stanford,
If the VG Spaceship 2 didn’t intentionally create a high drag configuration, then it WOULD need heat shields – that was the whole point of the variable geometry configuration – why bother when any glider shape will give you the orientation that you want. It is the high drag entry config that allows the vehicle to avoid costly / high maintenance tiles.
Martin,
I agree that the VG craft itself wouldn’t carry the fuel, much the way the existing Space Shuttle doesn’t carry the fuel, but it might be part of a multi-stage rocket configuration, where the ship could still glide all the way back to Earth.
Martin sez:
Sure – but then you’re talking about something much more like the space shuttle – I don’t think the physics work for a piggy-back launch as spaceship one did.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 3, 2008 @ 7:14 am# Steve S wrote:
## My view is that the unmanned space explorations have been some of the crown jewels of human history, yielding information and photographs fascinating to every interested person on the planet. The manned flights (called “spam in a can” by the early astronauts) were and are a huge waste of resources and several lives with very little scientific return. That money could have been much better spent on unmanned missions, and on more and better space telescopes.
I agree. The “manned mission to mars” is a huge waste of resources in my mind. Billionaires may want to do it because they can get themselves into the history books. Governments may want to do it because they think the public excitement will justify the tax $ expenditures. Anyone who thinks we can ruin this planet, but then colonize mars is mistaken. Our planet is a wonder and we need to take care of it. Moving us to another planet is the stuff of fiction and not realistic. What little we might want to learn from exploring mars can be done by robots.
I would love to buy a Tesla Roadster, but have no interest in taking a joy ride on Virgin Galactic.
Comment by TEG April 3, 2008 @ 7:59 amJason, I thought we were talking about orbital space flight. I don’t doubt that the VG craft might have problems returning from suborbital flight without the feather since that’s part of its design. But my physics intuition tells me that reentry from orbital velocities would need a heat shield. I doubt that the feather design is even feasible/practical from orbit. It’s the relatively low velocities involved with suborbital space flight that make the feather solution viable.
Comment by Doug@Stanford April 3, 2008 @ 9:08 amMartin,
Again, you are right. I am not expecting the VG craft to piggy-back like the space shuttle. I think it would be enclosed in a nose cone for the high speed portion of its journey within the atmosphere, then emerge from the nose cone above the atmosphere and remain sufficiently high drag for re-entry, so that it doesn’t heat up. I’ve seen rockets go up with nose cones of larger diameter than the rocket itself, so it should work.
I see VG taking it all in baby steps – first, they get Spaceship 2 performing daily or twice daily flights. Next they reconfigure the craft so that it performs a single Earth Orbit, which should still be able to use a mother-ship approach. Then they create a new configuration to stay in orbit, which may require a rocket instead of a mothership.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 3, 2008 @ 9:11 amDoug@Stanford,
It seems we are making opposing assumptions about the applicability of the “feather” approach to orbital missions.
I will send an email to both VG and NASA asking if a “feather” or “shuttlecock” approach works for orbital missions without heat shielding. I’ve always gotten a response from NASA, so we’ll see what they think.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 3, 2008 @ 9:15 amIt might help to hear the explanations that go with these slides; the text, however, seems to have many mathematical errors. For instance, in the section on solar electricity, the kW/car varies from 1.35 kW/car (slide 35, California Desert Solar Thermal) all the way up to 2.8 kW/car (slide 34, Individual Choice). Similarly, the calculations on various slides assume 85% efficiency charging and 4.9 miles/kWh for the Tesla Roadster; however, the numbers from the November 2007 testing in an EPA certified lab show actual charging efficiencies of 71.4% (due to cooling the pack and other parasitic loads) and a motive efficiency of 2.98 mi/kWh (plug-to-wheel). Reality bites!
Comment by Mark April 3, 2008 @ 9:24 amJason,
The heat problem isn’t an issue on the way up. If it was, rockets would all have heat shields on theirs noses. A rocket is still moving relatively slowly when it leaves the atmosphere, it gains most of its velocity above the air.
The problem is coming back down. Hit the atmosphere at orbital velocities with a high drag vehicle and the drag will either tear the ship apart or the heat will vaporize it. A suborbital ship like Spaceship 1 hits the atmosphere at very low velocity (it barely gets out of the atmosphere), maybe a couple of hundred km/hour at the very most. A deorbiting shuttle is moving around 7 km/sec (around 25000 km/hour, or about 16000 mph). That’s a hundred times as fast. It’s a totally different situation.
Keith
Comment by Keith Hearn April 3, 2008 @ 10:47 amWith all this talk about rockets in the comments I thought some of you might be interested in John Carmack’s take on the suborbital race:
Comment by Pete April 3, 2008 @ 12:47 pmhttp://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home/News?news_id=357
With all of the talk about orbital flights and heat sheilding I’m suprised that no one has mentioned the Earth’s escape velocity. This speed (25,000 mph) is needed to get into orbit, otherwise the craft would just fall back to earth, no matter how high it flew. Of course, re-entering the atmosphere at this speed requires heat shielding.
http://www.physlink.com/Education/AskExperts/ae158.cfm
GSP
Comment by GSP April 3, 2008 @ 4:18 pmWhile looking for something completely unrelated I happened on another article about RB’s Necker island ‘elder’ sessions. Oddly in 2006 he indicated he was disillusioned with politicians like Tony Blair, yet Tony was one of the honored guests in his 2008 session.
RB has been pitching the idea of a ‘War Room’ to fight global warming. Here is a suggestion – how about a ‘Peace room’ to fight global war?
Comment by TEG April 3, 2008 @ 4:23 pmKeith,
I am not sure about that. Perhaps a high drag vehicle will get slowed in the thin air, so that it isn’t going so fast when it hits the thicker atmosphere. Just thinking out loud, there might be a trade-off between the density of the high altitude atmosphere and the heat it generates, and its ability to slow the craft at extremely high speed. While thin, at that speed, it may still push hard enough against the craft to slow it substantially, while not generating too much heat, because it is thin, yada, yada.
It would be interesting to see which way that trade-off trends.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 3, 2008 @ 5:05 pmHi Jason,
I was just wondering if you’d be willing to man the inaugural flight of VG’s Space Ship 2 first re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere after departing the ISS. I hear they’re looking for volunteers.
Just joking….
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 3, 2008 @ 6:54 pmTEG,
Of the two choices offered in the Branson article I’d have to come down on the side of childish hubris.
Comment by Steve S. April 3, 2008 @ 10:23 pmChris Harvery,
I think Spaceship 2 might be able to do one Earth orbit, but they would probably reconfigure for permanent Earth orbit. Perhaps they could get away with a thin spray coating of some heat resistant material? Perhaps there is a re-entry angle that makes sense for a high drag vehicle that wouldn’t heat up?
NASA, when confronted with the inability of ink pens to write in zero gravity, spent all kinds of money to develop a pen that could, while the Soviets just used pencils. I think the heat tiles might be a case of the same type of thinking.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 4, 2008 @ 7:47 amVideo of redesigned wind tunnel Chevy Volt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_8uF8QKfeI
Best part is, they show old EV1 battery pack next to Chevy Volt battery pack – it shows the difference in what a range-extender and better battery tech can do.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 4, 2008 @ 9:42 amJason,
perhaps they could just teleport into a geosynchronous orbit and back, that way they wouldn’t have to bother about the heat resistant spray…
I think that you need to face the fact that VG is not designing these craft for orbital spaceflight, and, as far as I’m aware, they have no plans at this point to build a vehicle that is capable of reaching even low Earth orbit (160-2000 km). The VG craft are more like high altitude airplanes than they are like true space vehicles. They can barely make it past the Karman line (100 km or 62 miles), which is about ten times higher than commercial airliners fly at. I’m not trying to rain on your parade, but your argument is rapidly coming down to “perhaps if VG built an orbital vehicle, it would be capable of orbital spaceflight”, which is what is commonly referred to as “stating the bleedin’ obvious”. So, please, don’t take this the wrong way, but maybe we should get back to a subject that is related to the original blog post, or at least the category…
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 4, 2008 @ 10:35 amChris,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_%28Internet%29
Comment by Steve S. April 4, 2008 @ 11:26 amChris,
Don’t mind the toddler Steve S. who can’t stand when the conversation moves away from himself. He either tries name calling or mud slinging to prevent others from talking about things in which he has no interest. If you aren’t careful, he will have people do a google search on your name.
As for Spaceship 2, a simple thing for VG to do would be to do successively higher launches to determine how much stress and heating happens to the craft and its occupants, and make slight adjustments, just to see how far they can get. I bet it isn’t merely a simple case of “barely” getting to the Karman Line with that configuration. I think the VG approach would yield a better, more comfortable vehicle for re-entery than the shuttle or some capsule.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 4, 2008 @ 11:50 amChris, the conventional wisdom is “Don’t feed the troll,” which is what I follow with respect to the guy Martin referred to as “what’s-his-name” recently after disinviting him from the blog for a few weeks. But if any other approach has been found effective, I’d be interested in hearing about it. Good times!
Comment by Steve S. April 4, 2008 @ 3:39 pmJason: You obviously don’t have a clue about how difficult getting to orbit is so I strongly suggest you stay off the topic. It has gotten annoying.
Comment by Roy April 4, 2008 @ 6:12 pmI should apologise for my own earlier post promoting the Ultraconductor scam.
I believe the main theme of this blog is to help Martin choose his next project. I can’t think of anything more spectacular or more beneficial to the environment and economy than what he has already done. But I (and I expect Martin) would like to hear more ideas from all of you.
Since it’s completely outside my areas of expertise, I’d like some feedback on an idea I joked about recently. First, a little background. Almost all of our pressing problems, e.g global climate change, peak oil, dependence on foreign oil, Middle East war, public health problems caused by photochemical smog, etc. will be extremely difficult to try to solve. One important part of all of them, however, should be very straightforward by comparison: reducing automotive petroleum consumption by implementing efficiency, most significantly done by using a large number of commuter vehicles powered by the existing electrical grid. It requires no new technology, but mostly just a willingness to build them. Everyone will benefit.
As Martin points out, a small company can’t do that effectively because it would have to pay double what big companies pay for all the outsourced components, and the result would be … well, you know the rest.
Building a big company from scratch, although a noble and praiseworthy undertaking, is extremely difficult and takes a long time.
Extremely wealthy individuals and philanthropic organizations have expressed interest in doing something to help solve the problems above.
The idea is for any of them to approach a company like Subaru, which has a fully developed electric commuter car with examples driving around on our roads, and offer to guarantee enough sales here to make it seem attractive to market it here soon. My impression is that businessmen love investment protection contracts more than almost anything you could name. If you eliminate almost all of the downside risk, and a big upside is possible, it should make it very attractive.
The guarantors would lose absolutely nothing if the cars sold well, and maybe a small profit for them could be built in. Even the worse case wouldn’t lose as big as it might seem. There are many ways that unsold cars can be moved with reduced loss, such as sales to rental fleets and educational and other institutional and business fleets.
Of course an idea like that is worth nothing without the hard work and genius of creating contracts that appeal to everyone, and address their issues adequately.
I promise not to make unsolicited criticisms of any remarks that result. Oh, and I don’t expect to or want to personally benefit in any way if the idea is used (other than being able to buy the car). It probably isn’t original anyway.
Thanks, Roy, for reminding us of the overwhelmingly important contributions that Martin has made in this field. No one else on the planet has benefited the public image of electric cars as much, or created one anywhere near as desirable. He’s one of my heroes, along with Chris Paine, Wally Rippel, Alan Cocconi, and a few others.
Comment by Steve S. April 4, 2008 @ 11:44 pmIncidently, it was others trying to bash Elon Musk by posting criticisms of Space-X that derailed the thread on Space-X and VG. I was just engaging in the same speculation of future goals / growth.
On the topic of “what to do”, were I addressing a senior engineering assembly at some university, I would simply remind them of the very old and very wise adage that “necessity is the mother of invention”, and to look around for “what needs doing”. They should look for things that are fundamental to human life and happiness, and build from a simple / solid foundation, both scientifically and economically. Slapping another solution, on top of other half-measures, etc., won’t solve things fully or fundamentally.
Start simply, prove it in the marketplace, then iterate for more performance or other markets.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 5, 2008 @ 7:41 amRoy said:
“I believe the main theme of this blog is to help Martin choose his next project. I can’t think of anything more spectacular or more beneficial to the environment and economy than what he has already done. But I (and I expect Martin) would like to hear more ideas from all of you.”
Well said Roy. I agree wholeheartedly with this statement. I would guess that not too many of us are in a position to start our own companies that would have a positive environmental impact. However, there’s really nothing to stop us from trying to help someone who is. Without trying to be too presumptuous, I would suggest that our role, or function, on this blog is to kick around ideas that might in some way inspire Martin, or help him explore possibilities, for his next project. Which, I guess, is what Roy already said.
Now, maybe, I’m wrong, and maybe Martin already knows what he’s going to do, but I suspect that he’s always on the lookout for good ideas anyway. The way that I see things is that Martin is a “battery guy”. He’s interested in energy storage (in batteries) and the power electronics that control the delivery of that energy to the motor. He’s concerned with the efficiency level of energy storage and retrieval, and he’s also a businessman. This is why I have tried to steer the conversation back to energy storage, and particularly batteries. The power electronics I’m a bit fuzzy on.
To address Steve’s idea regarding Subaru and some potential, rich guarantor in the U.S.. I think that kicking around ideas for business plans is also a valid topic of discussion, as is strategies to promote widespread adoption of energy efficient EVs.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that I feel that there’s no room for the odd digression from the core topics, but these self indulgent tangents that end up dominating the blog seem out of place, and unnecessary.
Roy – don’t beat yourself up over the UMES thing. I was taking the guy at face value too until I did a Google search on UMES, and found only 8 articles, all of which were authored, or co-authored by MG. I guess that there’s a lot of these guys out there trolling for some easy VC cash. You’re not the first, and you won’t be the last to fall for something like that. As a university student, I was a huge proponent of Cold Fusion… seems funny now.
Anyway, all the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 5, 2008 @ 7:47 amSteve,
regarding your idea for the Subaru R1e and Larry/Sergey, or some other guarantor. I think that it’s a good idea in principle, but the execution might be a little tricky. I’m pretty sure that these kinds of people are not lacking for proposals on how they should spend their money. In fact, I would guess that they often suffer from proposal overload. I think that these kinds of people want to help, but they also do not want to appear to be “soft targets” for every scam artiste out there. Therefore, they set up elaborate filtering systems (like google.org), and who can blame them.
I’ve tried throwing in a few proposals, such as supporting the EnviroMission Solar chimney idea, but I’ve had no responses. It was like dropping the idea into a black hole. I’m not saying that this approach does not work, just that it didn’t appear to work in my case. Maybe I was one of thousands that sent in similar proposals and it just got lost in the crowd. I don’t know. About six months later google.org did anounce their RE<C initiative, but I have no reason to believe that anything I said or did had any influence on that decision. At this point I still don’t know what kind of technology they are backing to produce utility scale renewable energy for less than the price of coal generated electricity. Maybe they will take the multi-pronged approach, maybe they will be more focussed on one technology. I don’t know, I’m just glad that they’ve set this goal for themselves, and I really hope that they are successful in realizing this goal.
So, I suppose that what I’m trying to say, in a long winded way, is that good ideas don’t always get the attention that they deserve. Perhaps you could try submitting the proposal and see what happens. Perhaps you could suggest starting the project off on a small scale, say 1000 cars, just to gauge the demand and the viability of the business plan. The problem is that most business people tend to be risk averse, as you pointed out:
“My impression is that businessmen love investment protection contracts more than almost anything you could name. If you eliminate almost all of the downside risk, and a big upside is possible, it should make it very attractive.”
and there is downside risk in this idea (for the guarantor). What if the cars don’t sell? The U.S. is heading into what could be the longest, deepest recession since the Second World War, some pundits are even throwing around the word “Depression”. Sales of new vehicles are likely to continue falling in the near to mid term. I’m not saying that this will absolutely happen, only that this represents downside risk for the guarantor.
Anyway, I hope that some of the things that I’ve said will help you flesh-out some of your ideas, and if you do decide to submit a proposal to google.org, or anywhere else, I wish you the best of luck. Just watch out for those Angel (of Death) Investors… chuckle.
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 5, 2008 @ 10:56 amChris, thanks for the comments. I’m not going to make any proposals to institutions; it’s not my field of experience, and I already have a full time job. By the way, I recently read that sales of Acura models are in the toilet, but the econobox Honda Fix sales are way up, and the same kind of thing has been happening throughout the industry. Interest in a commuter car that’s cheap to run might go along with rough economic times.
Comment by Steve S. April 5, 2008 @ 12:43 pmSteve S wrote:
# I’d like some feedback on an idea
# …
# …a large number of commuter vehicles
# powered by the existing electrical grid.
How (connector standard, current draw) and where you hook to the grid would need to be worked out ahead of time. Many PHEVs are planning to use 120v 12amp standard house plugs which will recharge rather slowly. More serious EVs expect 240V 30amp+ which is currently much less ubiquitous. Do we need a widespread public charging infrastructure to “jump start” the demand for EVs? Shai Agassi’s Better Place project seems to think so.
# a small company can’t do that effectively
# because it would have to pay double what big
# companies pay for all the outsourced components,
Yes, it sure seems like you are right about that. I had hoped that Tesla would have been able to figure out cost reductions on their planned products, but every time I check back it seems their projected prices keep creeping up.
# Building a big company from scratch,
# although a noble and praiseworthy undertaking,
# is extremely difficult and takes a long time.
No argument there!
# Extremely wealthy individuals and philanthropic # organizations have expressed interest in doing
# something to help solve the problems above.
It is good to hear that there is such interest at that level for such ventures. Waiting for legacy big auto to deliver seems to be taking way too long, and many suspect that there interests are not so sincere as they can find bigger profits elsewhere.
# The idea is for any of them to approach
# a company like Subaru, which has a fully
# developed electric commuter car
Yes, along with Subaru, there are some others to consider like the Mitsubishi MiEV.
Again we might also want to keep an eye on Better Place. They claim that they will have huge quantities of EVs coming soon from Renault/Nissan with initial penetration in Israel with serious help from the government there. Perhaps their vehicle is the one that should be brought over here? Now, I don’t know just how real and complete their plans have come along by now. Anyone thinking of trying to use them as a supplier would want to do some serious due diligence to make sure that they can deliver. They have a good story so far but it might be advisable to see them in a action a bit before trying to count on them as a solution provider.
Don’t forget <a href=”http://www.acpropulsion.com/”AC propulsion”. Their Ebox Scion conversions are functionally decent US ready options. Currently they are rather pricey in part (I think) because they have to pay a good amount for the Scion chassis. If someone were to entice Toyota (and ACP) with sales quantity guarantees there might be an opportunity to lower the price substantially.
NUMMI builds Corollas right next to Silicon Valley. If someone were to work a deal to get Corolla chassis to convert with ACP drivetrains you could piece together a “completely made in California” small, practical EV. Perhaps the biggest hurdle would be convincing Toyota to take you seriously and go along with the idea.
The reality of the whole situation is that sufficient batteries to give an acceptable range (with reasonable safety and longevity) are rather costly and cause the electric vehicle to end up being much more expensive than an equivalent gasoline vehicle. That is one of the major roadblocks that is holding us back. We need another energy storage breakthrough to start making the decent EV more attractive. If someone (e.g.: government or philanthropist) wants to help get things going sooner rather than later then I would think subsidizing auto grade battery packs would be an obvious way.
Many of us are hoping so much that EEstor ultracaps end up being an answer, but it is yet another unproven technology at this point.
Perhaps the deep pockets should be chasing more battery breakthroughs (which have all sorts of uses beyond just EVs) rather than “private-sector” rocket companies and “soup-to-nuts” car companies.
# I promise not to make unsolicited criticisms of any remarks that result.
Have at it. I just dumped some opinions and observations off the top of my head. Feel free to cut them down or comment on anything you think makes sense. Also, being that this is Martin’s blog, hopefully he will add his viewpoint on all this.
Comment by TEG April 5, 2008 @ 6:03 pmHere is another interesting link to consider
Comment by TEG April 5, 2008 @ 6:48 pm# … The idea is for any of them to approach a
# company like Subaru, which has a fully developed
# electric commuter car with examples driving
# around on our roads,
Although this would be far less exciting and glorious compared to starting another car company from the ground up, but another option would be to buy already registered, street legal cars and convert them to electric. The conversion business is currently low volume, “home brew”. If someone approached it with a more assembly line, well financed methodology they could possible produce vehicles far more practical and desirable than the current offerings. A smart strategy would be to find a particular model that is otherwise fine design but has a “fatal flaw” in the drive-train that leads to low resale value. You send someone out to buy all the clean, accident free, low mileage examples at bottom dollar then you convert them to electric en masse.
I recall when Saturn first started up their manufacturing line there was a “goof” and the wrong coolant was put in the first production run. There was concern that the engine blocks would rust so the cars were not sold. Conversion people begged to get those chassis for conversion, but I recall they were all chopped in half to make sure they never got on the road in any form.
Oddly I found almost no mention of this story doing web searches, but I did find it here: “”Saturn recalled and destroyed all of the first cars they sold because ‘they were shipped with the wrong coolant, which could destroy the engine block’. Given that they could simply have issued new motors, this was an impressive waste of money.”"
In terms of cars with low resale value one could start looking a things like Ford Focus, Kia, Daewoo, older Hyundai, etc.
Comment by TEG April 5, 2008 @ 9:43 pmI wrote:
# another option would be to buy already registered, street legal cars and convert them to electric.
One green aspect to that angle is that the environmental impact of producing such a vehicle has already been done. If you breathe new life into a vehicle otherwise headed for the scrap heap you avoid the impact of making something new.
Comment by TEG April 6, 2008 @ 6:58 amTEG,
I agree with this idea absolutely. It’s one that I’ve been considering for a couple of years now. The model that I like is the Mazda RX-8. Used RX-8s sell quite cheaply on ebay, the handling is good, the transmission (if you choose to use it) can handle high rpm (not so sure about the torque though), and it’s a relatively light car, especially after you get rid of the ICE, exhaust system, fuel tank, etc.. I’ve done many searches to try and find an EV conversion on this model, but I’ve never found any.
If you pulled out the rear seating you would have lots of room for the battery pack and power electronics, and still have a decent sized trunk. Some of the touring models even have pop-up Nav screens that could be used as a display that indicates SOC for the battery, etc., just like the Roadster.
AC Propulsion does something similar with the eBox, but you have to supply the Scion xB and about $25,000 for the conversion. It seems a bit steep to me. There are lots of good quality used vehicles out there with one “”fatal flaw” in the drive-train”, as you put it. That fatal flaw is that they are powered by ICEs, chuckle. I know what you mean though, something that everyone else sees as fatal flaw too. It’s funny how many of the RX-8 ads that I see on ebay say “New Engine!”, meanwhile the car only has 27,000 miles on it. I think that that’s the kind of fatal flaw you’re looking for. Sure, you get a new engine for free while the car is under warranty, but what happens after the warranty expires?
Another thing to consider is that the carbon footprint of converting an existing vehicle is going to be much smaller than it would be for building a whole new vehicle. Reduce, Re-use, Recycle! I think that the main reason why this hasn’t become an acceptable business model is that the margins (profit) would be relatively low. Maybe I’m wrong on that one. There could be other factors.
Anyway, all the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 6, 2008 @ 7:43 amTEG,
thanks for the interesting link to the “hybrid” energy storage systems. I think that they might be copying the guy from Metric Mind Engineering:
http://www.metricmind.com/ac_honda/main2.htm
Actually, when I was getting the link I noticed that his ultracapacitor stack was from Maxwell, so maybe they are affiliated.
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 6, 2008 @ 8:02 amI don’t know if you are familiar with sea going vessals now starting to use para-sails, but here is the latest on how well the prototypes have done, and what the next iterations will do:
http://www.skysails.info/index.php?id=64&L=1&tx_ttnewstt_news=104&tx_ttnewsbackPid=6&cHash=db100ad2b6
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 6, 2008 @ 12:44 pm2 points:
Hydrogen generation: algae ponds show some promise, run anaerobically, some crank hydrogen bubbles. Genetic tinkering with their photosynthesis cycles may multiply the output. Zero electrolysis costs, and excess algae make great fodder and fertilizer.
2) the slide #29 kinda made me laugh. Square miles of PVC racks, costing ?? million, for 10 GW. I’m a huge proponent and fan of the Focus Fusion project, which has about 5 yrs of scientific refinement and another 3 or 4 of engineering to go. If projections hold (and they’ve been exceeded to date), there will be a working p+B11 fusion reactor about the size of a double garage costing ~$300,000 putting out that same 10MW at about $0.0015/kwh (0.15¢). Keep your fingers crossed, and get involved if you can. (focusfusion.org , lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com .)
This would give the Roadster an mpg equivalent of about 2000.
Comment by Brian H April 7, 2008 @ 2:54 amAnother link: “Renault, Nissan Weigh Lithium-Ion Battery For Electric Car Projects
Comment by TEG April 7, 2008 @ 1:10 pmFor some reason my last link didn’t seem to work so here it goes again:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120111595837510587.html
Also, I think I have a posting queued up in the WordPress “posting with too many links” purgatory.
Comment by TEG April 7, 2008 @ 2:42 pmSpeaking of destroying otherwise okay cars. Honda had a massive ship nearly flip on the way to the us. This was 100% full of cars. A team righted the ship (the show on discovery was about this death defying act). In the end nearly all of the cars were fine. Every single one went to the shredder!!!! They could not predict how being on their side for a couple days would impact the cars and the liability issues were not worth it. What a waste!
Comment by Pete April 7, 2008 @ 3:46 pmHondas? Or was is Mazdas? Are you talking about The ‘Cougar Ace’ incident?
Comment by TEG April 7, 2008 @ 4:40 pmI guess they sold those salvaged Mazdas as used cars
Comment by TEG April 7, 2008 @ 4:45 pmChris Harvey wrote:
# I agree with this idea absolutely. It’s one that I’ve been considering for a couple of years now.
# The model that I like is the Mazda RX-8.
# Used RX-8s sell quite cheaply on ebay, the handling is good,
# the transmission (if you choose to use it) can handle high rpm
I agree that the Rx8 is an attractive package, but that longitudinal transmission and 90 degree rear differential is not the way to go for efficiency.
Comment by TEG April 7, 2008 @ 6:20 pmI think for an economical EV conversion an FWD with transaxle may be a better way to go. I suppose with an Rx8 you could try to run batteries down the transmission tunnel, and put a small motor between the rear wheels, but space would be tight back there. I think ACP has the right idea with the eBox, but the particular Scion they chose seems too boxy. I wonder if their conversion would fit cleanly into a Corolla?
I haven’t seem much from AC Propulsion lately, after Tom Hanks’ car was delivered. They probably offer the functionally best conversions, if they in fact still do them.
One guy chose to convert an early Boxster, which seems to have some drive line issues so is relatively inexpensive, but is a nice car to end up with after spending a fortune on a good conversion. The best-engineered independent conversion I’ve ever seen was a Honda Insight with a very well done special inverter and a genuine beautiful EV-1 driveline, and lithium ion batteries. The cars are almost all aluminum and are already well engineered for efficiency.
A lot of good links and stuff are at http://evnut.com/
which I found at the metricmind site.
By the way, I believe the supercapacitor stuff is in Martin’s “don’t mortgage the farm” category (my words) instead of the “promising” category (and mine too). Paying attention to his brief evaluations along those lines could save a lot of mental gymnastics.
Comment by Steve S. April 8, 2008 @ 2:24 am# Steve S wrote:
## I haven’t seem much from AC Propulsion lately
I run into them around here. They have an eBox making the rounds at various EV events. As far as I know they are looking for customers.
# One guy chose to convert an early Boxster
Yes, the Boxster is a nice car! Somewhat expensive place to start though. Those early Boxsters had a funky plastic window on the convertible top too.
# The best-engineered independent conversion I’ve ever seen was a Honda Insight
Yes, the Insight could be a good starting point but I think they are a bit on the rare side to use as a basis for conversions. Besides both the Boxster and Insight are 2 seat cars. I was thinking a better choice would be something with 4 seats to have broader appeal.
# By the way, I believe the supercapacitor stuff is in Martin’s “don’t mortgage the farm” category
I think the main area of caution was with the EEstor claims. Maxwell on the other hand has been making their “boostcaps” for a while. They are more “run of the mill” compared to what EEstor plans to do, but still when paired to a Li-Ion pack it may offer some benefits. I think it would be worth checking out the product they mentioned in the link I provided before.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 6:20 am# Chris Harvey wrote:
# TEG,
# thanks for the interesting link to the “hybrid”
# energy storage systems.
# … from Metric Mind Engineering:
# http://www.metricmind.com/ac_honda/main2.htm
That CR-X conversion uses basically the same eMotor as in the Ford RangerEV I have.
There are lots of those AC motors leftover from the Ford/Siemens/Ballard/Ecostar fuel cell vehicle research projects. It might be a good place to start to use them for conversions. Most of the “home brew” conversions I see use DC (”permanent magnet”) motors, and the “Zilla” DC controllers, but I think a proper AC motor and controller would be a better way to go if you can afford it and can engineer it properly. If you can’t afford to create it yourself (like Tesla) then the castoffs from aborted fuel cell research projects might be a good alternative.
The original Ford Ranger EV prototypes were done by Troy Design and Manufacturing (TDM).
Some Ford workers were even thinking of making more Ranger EVs on their own.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 10:03 amMartin, do you know how “real” the Oceanlinx wave-energy farm project is? I am aware of several concerns that have deployed working wave-power units over the past decade or so, and Oceanlinx isn’t among them. Ocean Power Technologies, for example, put a “powerbuoy” generator off the coast of Oahu, as a test for the Navy. From everything I have been able to read about it so far, the test concluded successfully. See http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com/projects.htm
After a few successful tests of smaller units, Scotland’s Wavegen (Voith-Siemens Hydro Power) erected a wave generator on the coast of the island of Islay; that generator has fed power into the national grid for many years. See http://www.wavegen.co.uk/what_we_offer_limpet_islay_wavecam.htm
Both OPT and Wavegen have other pots on the stove, too, and several other vendors have at least shown good test results for their approaches to wave power. As far as I can see from Oceanlinx’s own website, they may have a prototype installation working in NSW; they anticipated to connect it to Australia’s national grid in 2008, but entering the second week of April, 2008, I don’t see any press release from them saying that the milestone had been passed.
Oceanlinx’s website also mentions a project in Oregon. OPT is involved in the Oregon action as well (about 18 miles south). OPT appears to have received a Federal permit for its farm; the latest thing I can find about Oceanlinx is that they have “applied” for the same permit.
I’m not trying to discourage confidence in Oceanlinx, mind you, only to wonder aloud how soon Hawaiians can realistically expect to see wave power making a difference for them. Do you have first-hand knowledge of how the Oceanlinx project in HI is coming along?
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 8, 2008 @ 12:56 pmTEG, ACP hasn’t updated their website in quite a while. The eBox model they convert has been thoroughly redesigned (for the better, I think, but still unsightly) and the original hasn’t been in production for quite a while. Do you think they plan to convert the new version, or any other vehicle? The Scion tC coupe comes to mind as something they might consider.
Sorry, I didn’t mention that I wasn’t thinking at all about conversions as a business opportunity. Martin mentioned long ago that he had no interest in being involved in that sort of thing. I highly respect the people who’ve done it, but I’m not looking for a business opportunity. I’m a potential customer, because I’ve gotten tired of waiting while the auto companies drag their feet (a factory plug-in Prius would suit me fine).
If I buy or convert a car myself, it would go one of four ways. One, buying whatever AC Propulsion would be willing to build. Two, buying an existing conversion from someone, ideally the converted Insight I mentioned. Does anyone know who owns that fabulous car? Three, converting a sports car like a Boxster or the last MR-2. If you’re willing to spend $25K and up for a decent EV driveline and batteries, cheaping out on the donor car might not be so good. Four, trying to come up with a commuter / city car that would resemble what I want the auto companies to build, albeit way too expensive for that market built as a one-off. I’d probably start with a Yaris two door.
Do you suppose ACP would consider building one for me? They’re too far away for me to make a personal appearance, to get a feel for what’s going on.
Incidentally, am I the only person that can’t get the least bit excited about a four door automobile? As a kid I didn’t want to be seen riding in one. Now it doesn’t bother me, but I much prefer two door sedans and wagons. I’d love to see something like a Chevy Nomad built again. The originals are too expensive.
Forget I said anything about supercapacitors. I was just trying to be helpful. I didn’t want to annoy anyone or try to spoil their fun.
Comment by Steve S. April 8, 2008 @ 1:11 pmLarge scale conversion projects seemed like a good idea to me when I hear how hard it is for small startups to get through all the safety and regulatory hurdles to make a vehicle street legal. Building it as a 3 wheel motorcycle brings about concerns over safety. So the idea of using existing cars that have been crash tested and include air bags and all that seems worthy of consideration. If you did it right you could refurb the donor cars back to “like new” specs, and perhaps even rebrand them with a different name and model designation. Also, updating cars to keep them on the road longer avoids all the extra environmental impact of having so many “disposable” autos on the road.
I like small 2 seat sports cars as much as the next guy, but many people have families, and it limits the use of the vehicle if you can’t take your family with you. If all you want is a special vehicle for communiting then a one seat car with less frontal area (e.g.: Corbin Sparrow / Myers NMG) starts to make sense.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 1:30 pm# Steve S wrote:
## TEG, ACP hasn’t updated their website in quite a while.
Maybe Martin should make another trip down there and find out why they aren’t getting any traction. Tesla’s success in finding customers should have had some trickle down effect on them. It would be a shame if ACP doesn’t capitalize on the publicity wave that has come about recently.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 1:40 pmJust noticed the comment by Chris H about UMES. It may be of interest that we have not been seeking VC funding (I’m a former consultant on VC to the Economic Development Administration – U.S. Department of Commerce).
The comment about cold fusion is just as ill informed. The original Pons and Fleishmann work was successfully reproduced by Dr. Huggins and his group at Stanford six months after the Utah work was publicized. It has also been repeatedly reproduced at SRI. The refereed journal Fusion Technology has published papers describing these and many other little known, but real, cold fusion experiments. The Navy has openly stated they have been doing such work for more than a dozen years.
Now usually known as Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR), here is a website with hundreds of other published papers. http://www.LENR-CANR.org.
Our own efforts have not included LENR, as any technology that incorporates a nuclear reaction will be forced by frightened groups and opponents to obtain type approval from the NRC. That is a process that is likely to take two or three years.
Ultraconductors will become an alternative to copper. Within a few years wire is likely to be cost competitive on a per ampere basis.
A one to two micron Ultraconductor, 1/50th the diameter of a human hair, will always carry 50 amperes. Visualize the diameter of a copper conductor needed to carry 50 amps. Not too shabby!
Comment by Mark Goldes April 8, 2008 @ 4:39 pmMG,
from the way that you describe your ultraconductor material it sounds like it should be pretty easy to demonstrate. Room temperature, no cryogenics needed, just an ammeter and a power source should do the trick. So I look forward to seeing your picture on the cover of Scientific American. All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 8, 2008 @ 4:51 pmTEG,
I haven’t overlooked your responses. I”ve read them and I will respond. I’m just a bit busy at the moment. All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 8, 2008 @ 4:55 pm# Steve S wrote:
## I wasn’t thinking at all about conversions as a business opportunity.
## I’m a potential customer, because I’ve gotten tired of waiting while the auto companies drag their feet (a factory plug-in Prius would suit me fine).
So why not just find a used Rav4EV like most of the “I can’t wait” people have done. 4 door mini-SUV just doesn’t do it for you?
I agree, there is a market for a “not so exotic” less expensive variant to the Roadster.
Perhaps you want something like this?
Check this out too
914 conversion WIKI
I don’t know much about them, but these guys in Florida seem to do a lot of high end Porsche conversions.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 5:39 pmMaybe we can find a junkyard with a bunch of Porsches that had front end collisions and Prius with rear end damage? Wink
I know a guy that likes to weld two vehicles together.
Comment by TEG April 8, 2008 @ 7:28 pmMG
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.” – Carl Sagan
The ball, sir, is in your court.
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 8, 2008 @ 7:38 pmMoney talks-all the rest is just talk. Without the money maybe Martin should retire early. Musk had the talking money-and the rest is history. Unless Martin comes across a gigantic angel (of life, non-death) VC buddy, the rest will be silence-ditto for the ideas of anyone else.
Comment by Mark Hollis April 8, 2008 @ 8:40 pmUltraconductors have been independently reproduced for the USAF by Fractal Systems.
They have been tested to 9 Tesla, the limit of their equipment, at the Bar Ilan University, with no loss of conductivity.
They have been reproduced independently at the World Renowned Ioffe Institute in St. Petersburg, Russia. A paper by that team, translated by the Ameerican Institute of Physics, concluded they exhibited zero resistance.
Last year samples were evaluated at Battelle Memorial Institute with positive results.
They have been the subject of four successfully completed Small Business Innovation Research contracts, including a highly competitive Phase II with the USAF.
Papers have been published in refereed journals for some years about these remarkable materials. They include articles in the Journal of Superconductivity.
We are delighted to have the ball in our court.
Comment by Mark Goldes April 8, 2008 @ 9:55 pmTalk talk about it Hollis. “VC or not VC-that is the question”. Money don’t get everything it’s true, what it don’t get Martin can’t use ?
Comment by Rich Burton April 8, 2008 @ 10:14 pmHarsh (but true?) words, Mark and Rich.
If the Flying Lizards come your way with a rocket ride make sure to grab a parachute and don’t let go!
Comment by TEG April 9, 2008 @ 9:37 amMoney is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master. I’ve never wanted anything from wealthy people, except for them to act responsibly. Many of them are despicable jerks and probably have a big karmaburgers coming. None of the people I mentioned recently as heroes, Martin, Wally, Alan, and Chris, are very wealthy except maybe Martin, compared to the average guy.
On the other hand, Larry and Sergey will always be heroes for giving us Google, and so will Ted Turner for his environmental and philanthropic work, and for being such an honest, outspoken, funny, brilliant and all-around great guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_pCK9l9tKA
Comment by Steve S. April 9, 2008 @ 6:19 pmI vote for Martin to be Barack’s Secretary of Energy. Or better.
Comment by vfxx April 9, 2008 @ 8:48 pmPersonally I HAVE wanted something from wealthy people-their money. Some of it is rightfully mine (ours, yours, Martin’s, etc.)-yeah! But noooo! It’s amazing the cash some people can make, sometimes in a fraction of a lifetime, no less: A-Rod of the yankees, Oprah, the You Tube founders, and of course not forgetting Musk(rat)- anyone ? Something is seriously wacko with the system, on the face of it ( on the theory of “life is short/one life to live/ U.S. minimum wage not changed worth 2 cents in something like 25 years, until recently , etc.”)- but what else is new?- always has been. The latest issue of ” Vanity Fair Magazine” is a green issue, check it out- especially essay on pages 228-9 . Also has a story on Russia going after oil in arctic, now that thaw makes it easier. If they push this they could be biggest world oil supplier. Russia has no green incentive-they want money (”that’s what they want”). Some incentive in China & India, but not enough. Bottom line: the world is toasted even IF (big IF) U.S. were to get with it fast & bigtime. Yet the world is swimming in cash in many circles & green tech. potential. Like I said, something is seriously wacko with the system on the face of it-and without money and/or “power” not much we or Martin can really do, except add small droplets of “green water” to a lake sized bucket of global warming/environ. trouble. Ultimately the planet is at the mercy of the powers that be and their game plans-which have been more than pretty pathetic for more years than you can count.
Comment by Rich Burton April 9, 2008 @ 9:12 pmHey Martin,
It’s 10th April, almost a month after “Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster”.
I’d expect that you would at least get a firm date for the arrival of The Car if not The Car Itself.
Any news?
Martin sez:
No word yet…
Comment by Dean April 9, 2008 @ 11:35 pmRich Burton,
There is nothing wrong with the system, as billionaires are created every year. What is lacking is the vision and execution of all those who DON’T become wealthy.
Typically, it is the culture, and specifically the family, that determines the amount of wealth generation. If a culture / family views wealth as bad, then you can guarantee that members of that culture / family won’t be wealthy.
I knew a school teacher in Texas, who had a hard time getting her black students to excel in her class, because they believed studying and doing well in school was too “white”. With that type of culture / family mindset, they will never escape the cycle of poverty.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 10, 2008 @ 5:17 amJason wrote:
# What is lacking is the vision and execution of all those who DON’T become wealthy.
Vision and execution aren’t all that is required. Being properly connected… Having some luck… Being in the right place at the right time.
Plenty of talented people in this world toil away unrewarded.
Comment by TEG April 10, 2008 @ 7:48 amMoney is a very interesting topic.
Comment by Roy April 10, 2008 @ 2:04 pmWhat we’re talking about is distribution of wealth. I agree that people should be rewarded for higher accomplishments and risk taking, but I think the spread is too much. As we approach a true global ecconomy where minimum wage will be almost the same in all countries we really have to take a long hard look at equal pay for equal work and decide what constitues work that benefits society vs parasitic. The world is supported by those whose contribution is positive and the overall wealth of society depends on the ratio of positive vs parasitic. Thieves are parasitic, some wealthy people contribute very little but have a high income. Does making bombs, which destroy expensive buildings make economic sence? No. It might make political sense and even be required, but it is a parasitic activity because it does not contribute to the wealth of the world. Almost all the working poor are positive contributors. People who succeed in becoming wealthy via smart stock trading, certainly deserve some reward, but in fact contribute little, and the money they make has to come from somewhere, it comes from the loosers, the working poor. My point is that as the parasitic load gets higher, the contributors have to work harder to maintain their standard of living and ultimately must remain the largest group with a relatively small spread from poor to wealty income for everyone to have a decent living.
How can we move society in this direction?
If we define toil as work not freely chosen, no matter how seemingly simple, all work we choose, no matter how difficult, falls under the psychological category of play. A wise goal is to encourage efforts to reduce the time people spend — at work they have not chosen — to twenty hours each week. The money earned during the remaining half of the nominal forty hour week will need to be replaced with diversified investment income, ideally derived from firms that hold to a high ethical standard.
We can think of a twenty hour week as five four hour days. Alternatively, as a thought experiment, examine the possibility of two ten hour days – with five days each week to employ and enjoy as we wish. Some of the positive implications are obvious. One small example would be a dramatic reduction in commute traffic.
Many, if not most, people are trapped by mortgage payments, car payments, etc., in jobs they do not love. There is a simple test: Would they continue to do the same work without pay?
Only a few fortunate individuals have the freedom to learn who they are, and more important, who they might become, given the time for both spiritual reflection and inner growth, as well as genuine opportunities to prosper and contribute to the greater material good of mankind; not just in a narrow financial sense. Such truly free citizens would also help to insure an ongoing, enlightened, political discourse, not easily manipulated.
The late Robert Edmonds, an iconoclastic economist, argued that excess wealth concentration is the root cause of inflation and recession, thus broadening the ownership of wealth may not simply be an ethical concern, but an economic necessity. He designed incentives that could create what he termed “overfull” employment, without inflation, accompanied by expanded ownership opportunities, such as those initiated by the late Louis Kelso and the Council for Economic and Social Justice, which can produce substantial second incomes. As a consequence the toil component of the work week would gradually diminish.
This American led accelerated evolution would initiate the most genuinely free society in human history.
(This is an extract from the article BRIDGEWALK on the Magnetic Power (MPI) website. MPI is the commercial affiliate of the not-for-profit AESOP Institute. The article is an AESOP Institute piece)
Comment by Mark Goldes April 10, 2008 @ 3:05 pmRoy,
Actually, any weapons that protect free nations and free economies are a contributor to an economy. It is undoubtedly a cost to an economy, but security is an essential requirement for an economy.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 10, 2008 @ 3:45 pmThe conversation seems to have focused on the wrong green.
Martin sez:
Grin.
Comment by David Kosowsky April 10, 2008 @ 4:49 pmMartin,
What do you think of the recent TM announcement regarding expansion to Europe? It seems odd to go this route before even delivering #2 in the US.
Martin sez:
Announcements are cheap.
Comment by Pete April 10, 2008 @ 10:22 pmPete,
Fisker also announced a European distributor this week.
Moreover, GM (and probably others) is looking to augment their falling domestic sales by using excess domestic capacity to build vehicles for foreign markets. Yes, you heard right, GM plans to build vehicles in the US for EXPORT.
The falling dollar has changed the dynamics of the industry, which is creating jobs in the US. Economic principles do work, if you let them.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 11, 2008 @ 7:55 amSome searching revealed the source of the converted Honda Insight with a genuine GM EV-1 motor: http://cafeelectric.com/other.php .
That’s the place in Oregon which makes the popular Zilla controllers for very powerful DC motored electric vehicles. The special 3 phase AC controller won’t go into production anytime soon.
Comment by Steve S. April 11, 2008 @ 4:34 pm**Right now, you can’t get within a mile of the
**wind farms; they are definitely not destinations!
I just put up some photos of our recent visit to
Comment by Nick Carter April 11, 2008 @ 10:06 pmthe windfarm at the North end of Big Island.
http://www.npcsolar.com/index.html
16 x 660kW Vestas machines for a total of ~10.5MW
Nominally about 5% of peak but often contributing substantially more than that to the Big Island grid. They were kept relatively low (just below 200′ total height IIRC) because there’s a small airstrip nearby and also to keep them barely visible from the nearest main road. Note that one blade per turbine is yellow and the almost-maxed-out power display of 627.4kW.
# Maybe Martin should make another trip down
# there and find out why [ACP] aren’t getting
# any traction. Tesla’s success in finding
# customers should have had some trickle down
# effect on them.
Guess it depends on your definition of “traction” and “customers”. ACP built, sold, and *delivered* more electric vehicles than GM, Toyota, and Tesla combined in both 2006 and 2007, and is on track to do the same (with an eBox replacement) in 2008.
At last check, their cars are in such demand that they have a 4-6 month waiting time. Manufacturing cars is not quite the same as manufacturing press releases.
Martin sez:
How many cars have they delivered?
Comment by eBox driver April 12, 2008 @ 4:04 amWhile I am pro-wind, perhaps the locals are skeptical of wind due the blight left at South Point when this farm was abandoned.
Comment by Steve C April 12, 2008 @ 7:59 amhttp://www.travelistic.com/video/show/829/Abandoned-Wind-Farm-on-the-Road-to-South-Point
Steve,
Otmar Ebenhoech is the guy behind Cafe Electric and the Honda Insight/EV-1 conversion. He seems like a really cool guy. There’s an interview with him done by Peak Moment TV on google video. Here’s the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl9uejKnMFQ
As you pointed out, he seems to be more involved with the DC motor scene than with AC motors, which is a shame because he seems to be very innovative. He could be another Alan Cocconi, perhaps.
Speaking of Alan, and ACP, a thought crossed my mind the other day, “I wonder if Alan Cocconi is involved with the Project Better Place effort?” I wouldn’t be completely surprised if this turned out to be the case. Does anybody have any information related to this?
Anyway, all the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 12, 2008 @ 4:17 pmTEG,
sorry that it’s taken me so long to respond. I started teaching evening classes this week, in addition to my daytime duties.
Anyway, you said:
“I agree that the Rx8 is an attractive package, but that longitudinal transmission and 90 degree rear differential is not the way to go for efficiency.”
And, of course, you’re absolutely correct on that point. The transmission’s internal friction and the rear differential is going to reduce the efficiency of the vehicle, compared to no transmission and direct drive from the motor to the wheels. However, I was thinking of the vehicle as more of a performance vehicle than in terms of absolute efficiency, or at least as a pretty good compromise between the two. Compare the characteristics of the Renesis rotary ICE with, say, the ACP AC-150 EV Power System:
http://www.acpropulsion.com/technology/gen2.htm
Renesis: 238 hp, 9000 rpm redline, 159 lb-ft max. torque.
AC-150: 150 kW (200 hp), 12,000 max. rpm, 220 N-m (165 lb-ft) max. torque.
As you can see, the specs are quite similar, but the ACP system has slightly more torque and a higher redline. One other important difference, of course, is that the ACP system is far more efficient than the rotary ICE that it is replacing. While this conversion would not represent the most efficient EV on the road, its performance should exceed that of the original vehicle, while improving its efficiency by perhaps as much as a factor of five (Renesis burns 12.8L/100km, or 22.1 mpg, around town). One more thing, the ACP system is far more reliable and should require less maintenance than the Renesis. After all is said and done, I think that you could end up with a very desirable vehicle (although not as desirable as a Tesla Roadster) for about $40k.
When it comes to absolute efficency, there’s not much that will beat a bicycle!
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 12, 2008 @ 5:31 pmMartin,
welcome back! How was Impact 2008? Is IBM ready to join the rEVolution?
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 12, 2008 @ 6:47 pmChris, yes, I agree that it seems like a good match on output for the AC-150 in an RX8. But who wants to lug around a close ratio 6 speed when you don’t need it (because you have flat torque).
Comment by TEG April 12, 2008 @ 10:17 pmAlso, the efficiency is important for battery capacity $ vs range. I still think ditching the transmission and putting the AC motor between the rear wheels would be the way to go.
Chris,
Thanks for the video link. I had seen it before, but it was timely to watch it again. On a trip up to Portland I stopped at a small EV gathering of about a dozen cars, which included the converted Insight and the orange 914. The paint job on that one, incidentally, looks OK on the video but has the most weathered, faded, crazed paint I’ve ever seen. The car looks like it spent its whole life unprotected in a desert.
Most of the cars looked like ingenious low buck efforts, except for the Insight, which looks like it just came off of the showroom floor. The street legal White Zombie record-holding Datsun has a very impressive drive train and batteries. You probably knew that Otmar’s Zilla controllers have been used in lots of record setting electric cars, including the Killacycle drag bike that went over 166 and into the sevens: http://www.killacycle.com/ .
The hot performance car and bike setup seems to be two brush DC motors, a Zilla controller (up to 2000 amps in one version) and A123 lithium ion batteries. An electric motor wizard, Jim Husted, upgrades and massages the motors to be able to last long enough to set records putting out way, way more than their design power.
Otmar has written several stories in the past about the development of the Zilla controllers, which early on had a lot of the glitches, and problems with supplier quality control, that you would expect. His current products are evidently very well developed and in demand, because there’s a long wait for delivery. He did make the successful 3 phase AC controller for the Insight, but he seems too busy these days to follow up on it.
From my own work I know that high power semiconductor devices were notorious for unreliability for many years, and for sometimes causing a lot of excitement when they failed. The situation has much improved. Of course the low-power semiconductors are a miracle of reliability, especially comparted to the vacuum tubes and relays that they replaced.
I didn’t comment much either way about TEG’s idea of a well-financed effort to covert a substantial number of new or used existing vehicles to EVs, other than writing that Martin had mentioned that he wasn’t interested in conversions. I’ve been wrestling with the idea, but can’t come to any firm conclusions.
On the plus side, if it were big enough it would be a way to use economies of scale to deal with the fundamental problem, which is drastically lowering the cost of the (very expensive) motors, inverters and batteries, and inviting an adequate supply of them. On the minus, a standard caveat is that the OEM manufacturer could drive you out of the market by making its own version, if it were successful enough. And if the major financial resources could be found to gear up the effort to the necessary scale, those resources might be competed for by a different approach, such as converting new gliders or an outsourced special model like Tesla’s. I don’t know enough to lean either way.
I can’t find anything on Alan Cocconi’s present activities, except that he built and flew in 2005 a solar powered aircraft for 48 hours continuously, setting a record.
Bicycles are indeed very efficient, but not without their problems. Several years ago I did a lot of mountain bike riding in the local 5000 – 8000’ mountains where I lived. I eventually bought new or used, or built from the frame up, about 20 bicycles of all types, ages, and price brackets. It’s fun; the parts are beautifully made and relatively inexpensive compared to those of other vehicles; you can do it indoors and stay clean; and it doesn’t rot your mind like watching TV.
My most used vehicle, for daily transportation, ended up being one of the bikes I rescued from GoodWill, an old Peugeot 10-speed. It cleaned up really well, and was only $30.
It has a feature that’s very hard to find on a nice bike: it’s theft-proof. I can’t be bothered with locks, etc. I upgraded it with a period-correct Atom 6-speed freewheel to make it a 12-speed, and put on an old shortened mountain bike handlebar. Those uncomfortable drop bars are for racers to improve aerodynamics.
Incidentally, there are two key jokes in bicycling.
1. People who want to use bicycles for transportation, exercise or recreation are goofy. Real bicyclists are people who are pretending they’re professional bicycle racers.
2. I wanted to take up bicycling, but I couldn’t afford the clothes.
My current problem is that my rear tire is getting thin, and it’s a once common but now obsolete size: 27 x 1 ¼”. The only new tire I can find in town costs $45. Do the car and oil companies control bicycle tire prices too?
Comment by Steve S. April 13, 2008 @ 12:05 amHave any of you seen that Lightening?
Comment by Adam April 13, 2008 @ 5:17 amhttp://www.lightningcarcompany.com
Whats going on there? 700 hp! Is it some kind of joke, or feasable, or what Martin?
# Steve S wrote:
## Otmar has written several stories in the past about the development of the Zilla controllers,
Yeah, I saw some of the burnt copper experimental results in his old Palo Alto shop before he moved up to Oregon.
Comment by TEG April 13, 2008 @ 9:59 amTEG,
you are right about the transmission, it would reduce the range (or increase the size of the ESS required). The only benefit that I could see would be that it would give a higher top speed, but on the whole it’s probably smarter to keep things simple.
I was thinking about the possibility of using pancake motors,
(http://www.pmlflightlink.com/motors/hipa_drive.html)
but instead of placing them inside the wheels it might make more sense to move them to the centre of the rear axle to the spot where the rear differential was in order to avoid the whole sprung vs. unsprung weight issue that Martin wrote about on the TM blog.
Martin wrote:
“I was all intrigued by the idea of wheel motors. What could be simpler? Mount a motor right in the wheels. Presto, no differential, no drive shafts, no CV joints, instant traction control and stability control. What kills the idea of wheel motors for road cars is unsprung weight.
Unsprung weight is the weight of the car that is below the springs – tires, wheels, brakes, hubs, etc. The higher the ratio of unsprung to sprung weight, the worse the car handles unevenness on the road. Tracking the road is so important that even inexpensive cars now commonly are sold with aluminum alloy wheels, alloy suspension components, etc. that knock a few pounds of unsprung weight off each corner of the car. Adding 30 unsprung pounds to each corner would mean abysmal handling.”
I think that this would avoid the reduction in efficiency due to transmission & rear differential friction, and also impart some of the benefits of in-wheel motors that Martin mentioned in his blog. The only concern (minor) would be the diameter of the motors. Depending on just how much room there is back there, it may end up intruding on trunk space. This design would further reduce the weight of the car as you could get rid of the drive shaft, transmission, rear differential, etc. The PML motors are also relatively light (18-25 kg, or 40-55 lbs, per motor, depending on power requirements). It would shift the weight distribution, which would affect the handling of the vehicle, but it should be possible to balance this out with the placement of the ESS and PEM. It should also allow for the possibility of keeping the rear seating…
Just a few ideas. Let me know what you think.
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 13, 2008 @ 10:47 amSteve,
I’m glad to hear that I’m not the only that looks for bargains at the Goodwill store. This link may help with the 27″ x 1 1/4″ tires:
http://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?sofocus=bs&sbrftog=1&dfsp=32&from=R40&satitle=bicycle+tires+27&sacat=-1%26catref%3DC6&sargn=-1%26saslc%3D2&sadis=200&fpos=N2E1V9&sabfmts=1&saobfmts=insif&ftrt=1&ftrv=1&saprclo=&saprchi=&fsop=32%26fsoo%3D2&fgtp=
They’re still pricey, but at least you can get two tires for under $30. I also had a 10 speed, and later a 12 speed that used that tire size. That was a few years back now. You can’t beat a bicycle for efficiency. There’s a beauty in the simplicity of this solution to transporting humans.
Of course, it doesn’t meet all our requirements, and that’s why we find ourselves talking of EVs.
I have a few more things to say regarding the feasibility of the conversion business model, but I don’t have much time at the moment. I have to mark exams for tomorrow morning… It makes me tired just thinking about it! I do appreciate your ideas though, and I will respond when I have bit more spare time.
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 13, 2008 @ 3:41 pmI just noticed that my link to the pancake motors didn’t post properly. Here it is again:
http://www.pmlflightlink.com/motors/hipa_drive.html
Does anybody know if these motors are as good as the manufacturer claims?
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 13, 2008 @ 4:08 pmRasertech is expected to unveil a serial-hybrid propulsion system for SUV’s soon. Hopefully, it will include these in-hub motors as an option:
http://www.rasertech.com/tech_p-2.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 13, 2008 @ 4:21 pmAdam: The Lightning is nothing more than a Mustang with a new fiberglass skin. It is by no means in the same catagory as an exotic sports car. If I read their promo right the $90k price is with the original Mustang engine, and the PML Flightlink electric version is much more expensive. As far as I know, Lightnings are not production, they are a convesion done only after the order is received.
TEG: Your suggestion to put an AC Propultion motor beteen the wheels with direct drive is not pratical because of its 12k maximum RPM = about 800 to 1000 mph depending on tire size. It needs to have a differential to bring it to reasonable speed. The PML Flightlink motors are designed to be 2k RPM max.
About wheel motors. I agree with Martin’s comment about unsprung weight, but I think this is only really important for sports cars. Family sedans and SUV’s wouldn’t notice the weight as much. But I would still be conserned about the reliability of having electronics in wheels because of the constant vibration and shock loads from potholes etc.
Martin sez:
Most proponents of hub motors count among their benefits the opportunity to eliminate friction brakes, depending on regenerative braking by the motors only. (They depend on eliminating the brakes, because the hub motor would go where the brakes go in a conventional wheel.) I worry a lot about how to stop the car if a motor or electronics fail. A conventional friction brake system is very simple and also redundant – no (well, very few) single-component failure will cause a cause a complete loss of brakes, and the driver can be given ample warning of impending failure. This is not true for hub motors – the control system is quite complex, and there are many possible single-point failures that would cause a complete loss of brakes. Additionally, eliminating the friction brakes eliminates the hand-brake – eliminating yet another redundant stopping system and also eliminating the ability to prevent a parked car from rolling without active (power-consuming) action from the hub-motor system.
Comment by Roy April 13, 2008 @ 4:47 pmRe: Steve C’s comment on the “blight left at South Point”…
The new Pakini Nui wind farm is rated at 21MW (14 GE 1.5MW turbines). The 37 nearby Mitsubishi machines are over 20 years old and were only rated at 9.3MW. According to this article
http://starbulletin.com/2007/07/20/news/story11.html
the company is “currently deciding whether to dispose of, remove or rehabilitate the Mitsubishi turbines.”
Presumably they’re just avoiding the cost of dismantling them but hopefully they’ll be repowered at some point.
Comment by Nick Carter April 13, 2008 @ 7:31 pmGoldes comment said : “excess wealth concentration is root cause of recession and inflation”-well the current recession sure was caused by rich Wall St. type chimps & their assoc. trying to get richer-foisting “subprime mortages” on as many Patton- style “poor dumb etcs.” (or something like that ) as they could. Then when they get rightfully trounced, per Bear Stearns, all of us also take the fall thanks to these turkeys. I read something recently that said the rich and corp. America skate on taxes big- time , percentage-wise, compared to middle and lower class people. There are also farm subsidies-particularly in Texas (what else is new ?) that pay “farmers” (not avg. farmers, but “bigtime corp. ones”) billions, when tallied up across the country, for growing nothing/doing nothing (per last Fri. PBS bILL Moyers report). These “farmers/scammers” fund the elected chimps in congress that foist this on us. Let me tell you, in many ways this country is corrupt clear to the top -as in also: CEO pay in U.S., as of 2005 , is 22 times, on avg., that of Japan CEO pay and 17 times the pay in Europe. Do you see our companies doing anything like 20 times better than these countries? -and congress had the nerve to even debate about raising the minimum wage, for the first time in years on end, no less. Let’s not even mention defense spending- I saw something recently on a whole bunch of weapons systems each costing multi-millions more than “first advertised”-and let’s not even go there re. the Iraq war costs and the TOTAL corruption and money-pilfering going on in the esteemed “free” (loading) govt. of Iraq. (per CBS 60 Minutes report tonight) . So while other nations, like China and Norway have extra cash called “sovereign funds” to invest in good things, we not only have no such fund, we have a gigantic deficit, thanks to halibutdroppings like the above. So when Obama sez that many avg. Joes in this country are frustrated with things as they are, it’s a case of “no halibutin’ kidding”. But he gets raked over the coals for being “elitist” . Even though Obama is on the “powers that be” farm team, other farm teams members, like Billary, should talk: coming out of “elitist Yale” and the elitist Rose Hill law firms in Ark. Also, I don’t see Obama coming from a rich family. Jeeezzz ! Speaking more of which: The latest Newsweek Magazine compares the proposed environmental programs and targets of Obama and Hillary, if they were elected. In 5 out of 6 categories their programs are totally, EXACTLY the same, down to the exact percentages and time spans. So you can chose farm team pre-selected candidate A or B and what you get is the pre-selected same result. The middle class is apparently paying the biggest percentage share in taxes to keep all this stupidity up and running-and there ain’t a thing in halibut we can really do about it- as in “go ahead and try”- except maybe in the very long run with a huge, continuing amount of concerted, slug-it -out style effort-and try to get that to materialize in the U.S. of A. This situation, friends and neighbors, is a “corrupt system at its finest” at work.
Comment by T.J. April 13, 2008 @ 9:13 pmPerhaps nothing will change the ball game more rapidly than turning cars into power plants.
Hans Coler, a German inventor, demonstrated an electronic alternative to batteries in 1926. His work was examined by two teams of university professors. A distinguished scientist found there to be “no fraud, hoax or fault” involved. The device, called the Magnetstromapparat (magnet current apparatus), was described in a Report by British Intelligence in 1946. In 1978, 34 pages of the Report were declassified. They are readily found on the internet. One of these devices is reported to have run for three months in a locked room in the Norwegian Embassy in Berlin. Coler stated that the magnet strength remained constant. He suggested the device was tapping a new source of energy. He called it “Raumenergie” (space-energy).
Space, since the time of Paul Dirac, is believed by eminent scientists to be chock full of energy. Converting some of this energy, seemingly from nowhere, is now the subject of revolutionary science and technology. This work does not violate thermodynamic laws. It opens a path to powering our planet without the need for fossil or uranium fuels. It can replace the need for batteries of all sizes with a power source, similar in size, which maintains constant output and never needs to be recharged.
The first application to automobiles will involve removing the plug and cord from a plug-in hybrid and substituting a two kW (2,000 watt) generator that converts this abundant, renewable, cost-effective, new energy source. With a bit of luck, this should happen within the next 12 months. It will be a harbinger of the end of the era of fossil and uranium fuels. Every automobile manufacturer will ignore the event only if they are ready to cede market share to competitors.
The next application to cars will involve replacement of the need for an engine or fuel-cell. On a prototype basis, this should be possible in no more than three years. It might even happen sooner. At that point, cars so equipped will never need gas or oil. Automobile manufacturers can expect to sell every such vehicle they make. Production volume will expand. Jobs will be created. The economy will experience new growth.
The ultimate application will turn parked cars into power plants. Equipped with fuel-free generators that produce perhaps an average of 100 kW – parking lots can be equipped so that power can be sold to the local electric power utility. No physical connection will be necessary, as technology already exists that can wirelessly transmit up to 150 kW to the power grid. Car owners can be paid. Cars will become a source of income. Many vehicles are likely to pay for themselves over a reasonable period of time.
Finally, when parked at home, the car can wirelessly transmit 10kW to the home. Imagine the advantages during storms or other emergencies.
We do not expect anyone with scientific or engineering background to believe this is real until an independent laboratory validates the work and self-sustaining Demonstration Devices and toys (no batteries required) are readily available. We anticipate that happening this year.
Global Warming is a far more serious problem than is generally realized. Only radically new technology that proves practical and cost-effective is likely to replace fossil (and uranium) fuel fast enough to make a real difference.
Martin sez:
Count me among the scientists and engineers not to believe this is real until I see a convincing demonstration. I have seen dozens of clever plans to tap some sort of allegedly free energy or other. I have seen tricky demonstrations where you really had to look hard to understand where the energy was actually coming from. But I have never yet seen a demonstration of free energy that stood up to hard scrutiny. Good luck!
Comment by Mark Goldes April 13, 2008 @ 9:38 pmChris, I was being a little tongue-in-cheek about the tire price, which was nevertheless real. I just did some searching; I can buy high quality name brand tires in that size for $15 each, from a mail order place or a big city bicycle shop.
I used to go to a GoodWill looking for obsolete computer and printer parts to nurse along some old scientific equipment that used that stuff. While I was there I saw a couple of high quality old ten speeds. There’s a saying, “Now and then an innocent man gets sent to the legislature.” Similarly, now and then a high quality old bicycle in someone’s garage gets sent to GoodWill, and needs to be rescued.
Bicycles are involved in a vast and serious development for environmental problems: bicycle commuting, once involving millions of people in Asia, is being replaced by automobiles. It’s a double whammy. The atmosphere is being polluted alarmingly, and the individuals are depriving themselves of daily aerobic exercise. But it’s irreversible, at least for another fifty years, so I don’t trouble myself by anguishing over it.
You were certainly on the right track about placing pancake motors at the center of the rear axle instead of inside the wheels. The Mini conversion mentioned and the Lightning concept do away with friction brakes completely, to allow room for the motors and to reduce unsprung weight. Something like that would require a major development program to be mass-produced, for no great benefit.
In fact, a lot of what is said and not said in the PML article is pretty shaky. The controllers / inverters being built into the motors is one example. Not an ideal environment for electronics. The serial input mentioned suggests that a separate computer and software would be required to control the power, versus just a throttle potentiometer for a conventional controller. The motors rotate at very low rpm compared to ones that use gearing to the axle, which deviates from accepted best practice. The power claims don’t seem to be in synch with the performance claims.
Personally, I would just forget about the PML stuff until they have a few hundred cars on the road that people rave about (unlikely). But that’s just an opinion, and I don’t want to spoil anyone’s fun.
I wanted recently to thoughtfully acknowledge TEG’s conversion ideas, which have merit. Personally, I tend to think that any desirable, affordable and practical highway capable electric car produced in significant numbers will be necessarily done by an established large auto company. The idea of an investment protection contract made by an environmental philanthropic organization, or some other way to prod a car company into doing it in a timely manner, is the best I can come up with. Again, it’s just an opinion.
Good times!
Comment by Steve S. April 14, 2008 @ 3:14 amThe housing bubble burst because unqualified buyers were given loans by unwise lenders believing that steep year over year returns on home prices would continue indefinitely. When the home prices burst (due, I believe, to an economic slowdown caused by global demand for oil, which, in turn increased energy costs at all points in our economy, inflating the “cost of living”), both lenders and borrowers were caught in a squeeze, tightening credit and worsening economic growth. This spiral causes a rapid and reinforcing contraction beyond the housing market.
Were oil prices the straw that broke the camel’s back, yes, but if these bad loans were never made, our economy would only be slowing, not contracting.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 14, 2008 @ 7:32 amGood article on history and current state of battery tech:
http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6551284.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 14, 2008 @ 10:30 amMartin,
Energy conversion by means of magnetic systems is no more free than solar or wind energy conversion. It will be apparent before this year is out that it is merely an unrecognized and therefore thus far uncommercialized way to provide power.
Skepticism is certainly justified. There have been a great many ill informed claims, as well as a few scams in this area of invention.
But, the Hans Coler work is reasonably well documented. Advances in materials science and in the relatively new field of spintronics have produced insights into doing things at the quantum level previously deemed impossible, like pumping heat “uphill” (i.e. against the thermal gradient).
Coler himself had views that are scientifically untenable. Today however, more than 80 years later, our knowledge allows us to understand why his devices worked, and why the inventor held those views, which is a good starting point for creating a replication. In addition to creating new ways to convert the same energy source, it may prove possible to build a modern version of his magnetstromapparat.
That would be an interesting piece of equipment for university and technical labs. It would demonstrate how, long ago, we might have sharply reduced the use of fossil fuels and changed the basis of electric transportation.
It seems we could have turned cars, trucks and buses into power plants, feeding the grid when parked.
Comment by Mark Goldes April 14, 2008 @ 4:12 pmJason-yeah, and speculators buying homes hoping to flip them for more in a matter of months didn’t help either. Goldes must be talking “dark energy”/ “dark matter”-the stuff that’s supposed to make up 90% of matter and that’s causing the universe to expand with increasing rapidity-our galaxy is going “outward” at something like 1.3 million miles per hour. Yes, we must tap this dark energy- figure that one out and join the Einstein Club overnight.
Comment by T.J. April 14, 2008 @ 4:12 pmLatest news: study by Univ. of Calif. researchers (BBC news article on this) sez that China actually surpassed U.S. as top co2 producer sometime around 2006-07. Study sez current computer models substantually underestimate future growth rate of China emissions and that if rate continues it will dwarf all the Kyoto treaty co2 cuts in the west- said what is needed is big influx of western green tech. (as in, like, free) since “you can’t blame the Chinese for wanting to get their people out of poverty”- but they said that this ain’t likely to happen. No halibut, Sherlock. The chimps running the planet have done a wonderful job of global pre-planning and management, no? The planned rise of China didn’t take this inconvenient problem into account did it? Being “commies” the western world could have given them the “Cuba treatment” economically (what’s the real “philosophical” difference, anyway?) but that wasn’t “the plan”. What was the plan was Kissinger dragging his lapdog Nixon to China to “open it up to the west” in the ’70’s-and of course making it look like it was Nixon’s great idea.
Comment by T.J. April 14, 2008 @ 6:32 pmWoof:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/technology/15tesla.html
Comment by Ben Weiss April 14, 2008 @ 7:40 pmBeen looking at Hans Coler gizmo online-looks simple, like elect. engin. wizards/lizards and/or Martin- let alone univ. labs- could build one on their proverbial kitchen table and prove in true or wrong pretty fast . The Flux capacitor of Dr. Emmett Brown may be superior, but nothing beats tapping into dark energy.
Comment by T.J. April 14, 2008 @ 7:53 pmRoy wrote:
“But I would still be conserned about the reliability of having electronics in wheels because of the constant vibration and shock loads from potholes etc.”
I’ve always agreed with this. I think you can engineer around all of the other issues, but the hub is a bad place for a motor. There is just too much abuse below the suspension. Additionaly, as Martin has pointed out in the past, little is gained by in-hub motors. Similar performance could be achieved by four less exotic motors just inside the suspension. You could then still have drum breaks on two wheels for redundancy as well as having an emergency break.
Comment by David Kosowsky April 15, 2008 @ 2:36 amBen Weiss,
Great find on the lawsuit between Tesla and Fisker. Considering that Fisker is partnered with Quantum Tech, a Tier 1 supplier to the automotive industry, and a leader in alternative fuel propulsion systems, I seriously doubt that Tesla could prove Fisker lifted anything new or unique from Tesla. It is sad when a company has to resort to litigation to compete in the marketplace. Bottom line is, Fisker has a vehicle with appeal to a much larger chunk of the marketplace, because they opted for adding a range extender long before Tesla did, and now Tesla is trying to play catch up.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 15, 2008 @ 4:48 amJason said: “Bottom line is, Fisker has a vehicle with appeal to a much larger chunk of the marketplace, because they opted for adding a range extender long before Tesla did, and now Tesla is trying to play catch up.”
You sure about that Jason? I’d like to review a clear timeline of events, but it seems to me that Tesla had been hinting at the option of a REEV drivetrain for Whitestar long before Fisker showed off the Karma.
A discussion about this on the Tesla motors club here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/news-articles-events/1090-rumor-karma-originally-fisker-s-design-whitestar.html
Comment by Doug@Stanford April 15, 2008 @ 7:17 amBen,
thanks for posting the NYT article. It sounds like Tesla has a valid complaint against Fisker.
Did anyone else notice that the projected price for the Whitestar keeps creeping up?
Was Barney Hatt involved in the new(er) Whitestar body work?
All the best,
Chris H.
Comment by Chris Harvey April 15, 2008 @ 9:44 amI think sums up the lawsuit well:
http://jalopnik.com/379850/tesla-sues-fisker-designers-in-worlds-most-expensive-girl-fight
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 15, 2008 @ 10:39 amJust to add on the CO2 comment above. Although China as a total may produce more co2 they produce 6 lbs of co2 per chinese compared to 200 lbs per americans. So if there is anybody that needs to cut down it is us, not them. A billion to a quarter billion yet we pollute more than anybody on this planet.
Comment by some facts April 15, 2008 @ 10:22 pmAnd another Tesla lawsuit, this time against them: http://earth2tech.com/2008/04/15/teslas-other-lawsuit-transmission-troubles/ . It brings to light a little information on the transmission story. Some day an interesting book will be written about all this stuff.
Speaking of which, any ideas about how I could locate a copy of Shnayerson’s The Car That Could?
Comment by Steve S. April 16, 2008 @ 12:03 amso with all the lawsuits and endless speculation about future products and marketing plans and so on..
Comment by kert April 16, 2008 @ 1:57 amwhen will they get their first cars shipped to customers ? i dont mean their own company execs but independent people who have paid hard cash for it.
wow this lawsuit seems very low. like a petty spoiled child that think it is owed total obedience by everyone around it. looks to me like Elon’s dastardly work again.
Comment by Dan Frederiksen April 16, 2008 @ 3:46 amMartin, is it your impression that Fisker did poor work?
and it makes me wonder if your contract of silence have a testimony clause allowing you to testify or are you boned royally if you are called to testify?
Rock Port, MO to be first city powered by wind:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52177
Every little bit helps to move the entire nation to renewables through hydro-electric, hydro-kinetic, wind, solar, etc. All contributions at all levels will get us there quicker.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 16, 2008 @ 8:28 am“The other battery pack team includes li-ion supplier A123 Systems, whose founder Ric Fulop said “Somebody lit a fire under [GM’s] butt in 2006,” and “I’ve never seen a large company move so fast and put so many resources behind something.”"
I wonder who that was?
I think there will be shakeout for these smaller startups once the big players have viable alternatives (in particular Toyota). 2010 will be a very interesting year for EVs!
Comment by Pete April 16, 2008 @ 11:12 am2010 ? The two most interesting ( read: affordable, decent performance ) EVs by major carmanufacturers are slated to launch in 2009. Well, maybe only Japan and UK markets at first, but still.
Comment by kert April 16, 2008 @ 12:18 pm“Some Facts”-you’re right, it’s long past time the U.S. got with it, but meanwhile (while we wait for the Bush cabal to be history and hope the states step it up more) here’s the next problem, even IF we seriously dent our problem anytime soon: China and India have built-in huge populations, obviously, that formerly emitted not much co2 at all. Now China and India are going bananas on the co2 front-Tata Motors of India just stared making their ” Indian Model-T”-a car costing a little over $2000, pitched to “the masses”. These “built in masses” will soon swamp the planet with co2. As for Russia-they’re pumping oil like it’s going out of style and licking their chops about drilling in the arctic as the ice recedes. I read to the effect that oil is ultimately powering practically the whole rise of the Russian economy. I have read that part of the problem with rising food costs is that the Chinese are consuming more and more meat. No doubt the cost of oil rising is in part linked to China-there are already cement and metals shortages (like copper) due to China. If this country could be like Germany is with their solar program, we’d be moving fast and big. But here’s an example of “our little problem” in this corporate controlled country of ours. There was an editorial in my local paper yapping about how “the greens” (including the likes of the Sierra Club and their “Earthjustice” wing) are suing to stop every single new proposed coal plant in this country -and winning , as in Kansas. The editor was saying, like (get this, this is good): “lordy, lordy-we all’s gonna run out of power if these deluded treehuggers ain’t stopped- we need our precious fossil fuel power, green tech. can’t do the job-isn’t that obvious !?”. I wrote him an e-mail saying, in effect and in no uncertain terms, sans mincing of words, etc.: “yeah, right buddy-go lie to someone who can still be conned by your deliberate lying, manipulative halibut droppings”. The editorial said that “modern coal power is twice as clean” as in the past. What the liar full well knew and failed to tell (the gullible) was that the U.S. supreme court just called co2 an air pollutant, and the EPA is required to consider it as such-and coal power is the biggest single co2 emission source on the planet, by far. When the editor said green tech. isn’t reliable 24/7 and it’s not “mainstream viable yet” he also (as in: lied, by omission, again) failed to mention that our state, Nevada, officially has the biggest , most easily accessed geothermal potential of any state in the nation -and this source is sure as halibut 100% reliable and 24/7 (as is solar thermal for that matter, via soluable salt heat storage). Well-surprise-the joker at the paper actually e-mailed me back, being quite sarcastic-guess I hit a nerve. So I let the dirty (coal dust on his fur, you see) rat have it in spades this time. Cagney would be proud- more like him is what we need right about now in fact. I told him that his brand of “journalism” would get an “F” in a high school journalism class-yes, an exagerration I know-actually it might possibly get a “D”-at least in journalism classes when I was in school.Lately, with the U.S. educational system, stupdity and lying may be allowed to skate-just as cheating is much more prevalent. When I was in school it was practically unheard of. But now cheating and conning. lies and manipulation are more “de riguer” in our civilized, “free” country. Everyone should take the time to write “editors” when they deliberately lie and con us-it’s fun, it’s easy- it’s like shooting ducks in a pond -who cares if it’s duck season or not withh these guys: send in the labrador retrievers and order more !
Comment by T.J. April 16, 2008 @ 5:17 pmGot an e-mail from Nanosolar Co. (am on their e-mailing list). CEO sez that: they see 2-10 MW municipal PV plants as best use of Nanosolar-2 MW “plant/farm” powers 1000 homes, takes 1 acre (10MW-5000 homes-5 ac.). Plant can be local, where power is needed, and deployed rapidly-in 12 months as opposed to 10 years or more for a new coal plant, start to finish. Local plants avoid the need for substations for down-transforming power from high transmission voltages. CEO Martin (”the other Martin”) sez: “In any region with a decent amount of sunshine, there is no more economic way of reliably providing municipal power during the day than through a municipal solar power plant….towns and cities throughout europe and asia have already proven the concept… it works, it is economic and it is possible now”. He also sez: “The amount of activity going on behind the scenes in readying technologies, sites and financings (for such plants) is tremendous and this will become very visible to the public in many locations in the U.S. in 2010″.
Comment by T.J. April 16, 2008 @ 8:26 pmNanosolar CEO Martin Roscheisen’s statement about powering 1000 homes off of 1 ac. of Nanosolar and 5000 homes off of 5 ac. is pretty spectacular-an acre is only 208′ square (5 ac.= 467′ sq.)- that’s like powering 1000 homes off of 2 small corner mini-mart sites.
Comment by T.J. April 16, 2008 @ 10:57 pmThe LawrencevillePlasmaPhysics.com site is allied with the focusfusion.org research. This effort should, if the calculations continue to bear out, result in small (garage-sized) generator sites turning out 5MW at $0.002/kwh by 2015-20. The plants will cost <$300,000 each to build.
This will render oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, coal, etc. plants all over the world — even China — economically obsolete and non-viable. Electric cars like the 130mph TeslaMotors Roadster hitting the road last month will, with nanowire LiIon batteries, go 2000+ miles on $1 worth of electricity.
You won’t recognize the world.
Comment by Brian H April 17, 2008 @ 12:59 amBrian H,
From your lips to God’s ear. Until that day, we should move forward with all those other renewable energy sources and drive plug in hybrid vehicles. That will prepare us for the switch to electric only power.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 5:55 amSmith Electric should give Zap a run for their money, because Smith’s vehicles look far beefier than Zap’s:
http://www.smithelectricvehicles.com/index.asp
Here is an article discussing Smith Electric’s product offering and collaboration with Ford:
http://www.green-energy-news.com/arc…/20080031.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 7:05 amHi Martin,
I have a simple solution for your silde-conversion problem: Don’t use powerpoint… get a Mac and use Keynote.
Keynote presentations are extremely simple to convert to pretty much anything: Pdfs, .mov-movie files, Powerpoint
and (here comes the interesting part) into Flash files that autoplay on websites. If you want, you can also record a “soundtrack” and thereby simulate actually giving the presentation in person…
Greetings from Germany,
- Markus
Martin sez:
Ask anyone who knows me – I am not one to wave Microsoft’s flag! But the fact is that if I want to send a presentation to a VC, it must be in Powerpoint. People misunderstand where Microsoft really has a monopoly – it is not their operating system! it is Office. You simply must use Excel, Word, and Powerpoint in business, and MS keeps it that way by changing file structures with each “upgrade.” Everyone runs Windows because Office runs best on that OS.
Now that I got to have my say, let’s not let this blog explode into a giant MS vs Apple debate!!!
Comment by Sparky April 17, 2008 @ 9:13 amWow – that’s what I call a quick reply… amazing.
Let me take this opportunity and simply thank you for your contributions to a better world (rekindling the excitement over EVs, halo-effect on home-generated solar energy, sparking a better sense of environmental necessities in the US etc…) and let me also agree with you:No more Mac s. Windows debates
.
Can’t wait to get back to San Francisco this Christmas (like every year) – and possibly see a couple of Teslas on the street. Would it actually be possible to buy one from the wifey’s still existing San Francisco address and then export it to germany? Would that violate some TOS or void warranty?
- Markus
Comment by Sparky April 17, 2008 @ 9:33 amThe late Robert Bussard, who with his team developed the (Philo) Farnsworth Fusor into what Bussard dubbed “the Polywell,” claimed to have solved all key physics problems related to inertial electrostatic containment-style “hot fusion.” After a “confirmation project” to confirm earlier results, spending about $20M, Bussard estimated that solving the many engineering problems related to creating a working, full-scale reactor (occupying a space about 2/3 the size of my modest living room and generating 100MW) would take $200M.
You can see him discuss the work at Google, about a year before his death, here: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1996321846673788606
As described, the Polywell reactor would minimize operating radiation, could not be a bomb or be used to produce bomb-making materials, and except for very short half-life waste products (40 years is the figure I heard him say), would leave no residual radiation behind. (”I could turn the reactor off and then sit on top of it afterward,” Bussard said in the video.)
The website for his company, EMCC, is here: http://www.emc2fusion.org/
Prior to his death, Bussard was successful in securing funding for the confirmation project, as well as a promise of funding for the full-scale, $200M reactor project, if earlier results were indeed confirmed. The confirmation project is reportedly underway, and we should know within a year, whether Bussard’s claims were valid.
If so, imagine that the driving reactor for powering 100,000 homes, or fully-fueling around 7300 Tesla Roadsters over a year’s time, would fit in a cubic area about 2 meters on a side.
If Bussard did not have the track record he did, and if he and his team had not won awards for the basic science they did in the experiments leading to the Polywell, I would consider this a crackpot scheme. But as it is, it seems like a fair gamble to wager that the project will at least yield the world and me personally $5 worth of benefits. So I sent his foundation $5 via paypal, as a hedge against future government wishy-washiness (or insolvency!) in the funding area. If anyone reading this is inspired to do the same, they will find the donation link on the EMCC webpage cited above. At a total projected cost of $200M (spent by a team that has already proven itself resourceful and frugal in spending other people’s money), this is one of the first promising energy research projects that might be fully funded by the proceeds of that Presidential campaign financing checkbox on the IRS Form 1040. Too bad there weren’t also (or instead) a checkbox to allow us taxpapers to do something positive to achieve energy independence and bring an end to wars for energy, instead of being merely the cash-cows who meekly enable more borrow-and-spend warmaking politics-as-usual by politicians of either major party.
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 17, 2008 @ 10:30 amJames Anderson Merritt,
Yes, Bussard’s work is important, and his video, while tough to sit through, is impressive. Along with his work, there is another reactor type that is being developed and tested:
http://www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/magazine/16-04/ff_zapped
I resembles a mobias strip, but I might be misinterpreting its configuration.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 11:20 amRaser is now partnering with a major automaker to create an SUV:
http://www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/04/plugin_suv_on_drawing_board_of.html
The competition is getting tough.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 11:50 amJason, Your link went not to an article about an alternative energy reactor, but to an article critical of ZAP. I’d appreciate the link you thought you were posting.
I recall that, in his talk, Bussard mentioned some kind of reactor — I think it was a new style of Tokamak — that might sound like a “mobius strip” to some. Perhaps that was what you were referring to?
Also, various sources give varying numbers for some of the specifications I mentioned above.
For example, the EMCC website says that the confirmation project will cost $3M to $5M, although Bussard’s 2006 talk said the cost would be around the $2M that he said the original research cost.
Also, a very nice writeup of Bussard’s talk says that the projected output of the full-scale reactor (the object of the $200M follow-on project) would be only 40MW, not the 100MW that I’m sure I heard coming out of Bussard’s mouth on several occasions during his talk. And the size of the reactor was rounded up to a 3-meter-side cube. (I believe Bussard said he expected the final reactor to be around 2.5M. Anyway you look at it, though, the reactor would still fit in my high-ceilinged living room!) At 40MW, the reactor could still power 40,000 homes and maybe 3000 heavily-driven Tesla roadsters over a year’s time: not too shabby for a 3-meter cube. (Of course, all the supporting equipment would make the total size of an installation much larger, but it’s interesting that the “furnace” itself can be so small.)
Anyway, looking forward to seeing the information on the alternative reactor.
The ZAP article was interesting, too. Anyone who is interested in a ZAP or in investing in the company should check it out. My advice: never pay money for promises, only for actual performance and results.
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 17, 2008 @ 12:56 pmSorry about the mistake. I’ve seen other articles and websites that show the assembled unit:
http://www.physorg.com/news124631405.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 1:00 pmThanks for the correct link. Yes, this is the “Stellarator” version of Tokamak. If I recall correctly, Bussard did mention the Stellerator — rather dismissively — in his talk.
The reactor described in the article you cite appears huge and hugely expensive. I certainly hope the Polywell “conformation project” is successful. If so, the full-scale reactor might actually be up and running before they flip the switch on the Stellerator, at a fraction of the cost of the latter. I guess we’ll see. Anyway, it would be nice to have a nuclear reactor that ran on fuel found everywhere, emitted no greenhouse gases, produced waste that faded to non-radioactivity within a human lifetime, didn’t make its surroundings radioactive, didn’t require super-cooled superconductors, couldn’t be a bomb or be used to make one, and could comfortably fit with all supporting equipment on a large lot on a city block. That’s a huge upside, with a possibility of payoff that’s much larger than buying five lottery tickets! So I’m hoping everyone who has an interest in the subject (especially those who ever tossed their money away on the lottery) consider making a small donation. I used to think that such hopes were futile, but we have seen large warchests generated for political campaigns via the internet this year, so perhaps direct citizen funding of important research is also possible. We’ll see. Let the people lead and see how fast the so-called “leaders” jockey to claim they are in front of the parade.
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 17, 2008 @ 1:38 pmHi Martin,
Have you heard anything updates on the delivery of P2 yet? Daryl made some comments about production progress here:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/tesla-birth-watch-44-tesla-talks-transmission-troubles-to-ttac/
“The second and third cars are in Hethel and will shortly be sent stateside for delivery, which will start in the coming weeks. Some of the cars have custom work specified which adds a little to the process.”
Apparently P4 will be in Monaco next week.
We’ve discussing it on the TMC forum here:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/news-articles-events/1099-some-delivery-info-siry-ttac-article.html
Martin sez:
No, Tesla has told m nothing about my car. Odd that Darryl tells this sort of thing to the press with no word to me…
Comment by Doug@Stanford April 17, 2008 @ 2:34 pmLooked at polywell fusion wikipedia site. The Dept. of Energy should fund that, not the Navy-of course that will happen maybe only when Bush is gone. Wonder if there is much contrary opinion from physics types- who can understand this stuff ? Meanwhile, Martin Roscheisen is on to something with his 2 to 10 MW Nanosolar inner city/town power plants on as little as 1 acre. There are plenty of such sites all over towns and cities in th ecountry. A lot of these mangy sites lie fallow for years and never sell. The kicker is getting the various towns to approve of the idea and allow the power into the grid. He sez a lot is going on behind the scenes, if the “kicker” can be overcome everywhere this could go like gangbusters, fast as Nanosolar can “print” their product- wonder how many VC /land development types are working on this behind the scenes now ?
Comment by T.J. April 17, 2008 @ 4:15 pmEngland has their first hydrogen fuel station:
http://www.autocar.co.uk/News/NewsArticle/Honda-Concepts/232316/
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 17, 2008 @ 5:05 pmUmm…Maybe Darryl is a rodent, see !?
Comment by Cagneynot April 17, 2008 @ 8:48 pmThe Nanosolar idea of mini-urban solar power farms could be spectacular, particularly in bigger cities where there is alot of blighted type land, with power lines there, in bad areas that no one has wanted for decades. Every bigger city has a lot of run-down area land- cities like Detroit no doubt being a prime candidate, but also southwestern & western cities as well. As for “establishment energy”-they’ve already made more than enough cash, “if they haven’t saved any of it by now, too bad”. Article in latest “Fortune Magazine”, titled “What’s Wrong with Wall St.-and How to Fix It” says this: “From 2002 to 2006 the five big independent firms”….(Wall St. firms like Bear Sterns)…”tripled earnings to more than $30 billion and, at their peak, achieved an average return on equity of 22%, rivaling such royalty as the pharmaceutical and energy industries” -bottom line, in each case, as usual : ” Caution: Weasels at Work”.
Comment by T.J. April 17, 2008 @ 10:43 pmTJ,
Having attended the University of Detroit, and witnessed “hell night” four years in a row, I would NEVER consider putting solar panels anywhere near that city. Ever hear of “broken window syndrome”? The “good people of Detroit” wouldn’t merely throw rocks, but they would shoot bullets at the installation, and try to set it on fire.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 18, 2008 @ 6:00 am“Having attended the University of Detroit, and witnessed “hell night” …The “good people of Detroit” wouldn’t merely throw rocks, but they would shoot bullets at the installation, and try to set it on fire.”
Sad.
Reminds me of an old Star Trek episode.
“Return of the Archons” story by Gene Roddenberry and teleplay by Boris Sobelman.
“We remembered something about an orderly society, very prim, proper, respectful and tidy; but when the clock struck six bells, social order went out the window. In short, men grabbed women off the street and ravished them and the ladies did not protest; men picked up clubs and began breaking storefront windows; men and women looted the stores and set fires through the town, and much more is implied. When the clock struck six bells again, order was restored.”
Description source (from Google search):
Comment by vfxx April 18, 2008 @ 7:50 amhttp://www.wizardrealm.com/Galadriel/landru.htm
The safer place to put PV power generation for Detroit is in Windsor, Canada, right across the Detroit river from Detroit. It is like a photographic negative of Detroit, and you could cable the power straight over the bridge. Funny how a cheap toll on the bridge keeps the “good people of Detroit” on their side of the river.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 18, 2008 @ 8:40 amRegarding Polywell fusion, T.J. asked, “Wonder if there is much contrary opinion from physics types- who can understand this stuff ?” From what I understand, based on reading up on it a few months ago, there are very few physics types currently in the business who actually do understand it. Most people working in fusion research now have studied inertial confinement as used in tokamak reactors and its related issues, but electrostatic confinement is more like the technology used in some old vacuum tubes than anything anyone is using today. The people who studied that stuff are all retired, and no one has bothered really learning it well since then.
It sounds very promising to me, assuming that what they’ve been saying they’ve accomplished is really true. It really makes one sad to think that what we’re spending for one day of the Iraq war could pay for building a clean fusion power plant.
Keith
Comment by Keith Hearn April 18, 2008 @ 12:28 pmKeith- or at least pay for the research to see if it works -and look what else the Iraq money could buy: the total cost of the war, when all is said and done, including all expenses- like bank debt and treating wounds/stress syndromes of troops for years to come, is projected by researchers in “Vanity Fair mag.” article to be $2.8 trillion, maybe more. Re. fusion-we need to get Anatoly Moskalev on the horn/blog- he knows, like, everything. Jason, vfxx- o.k. scratch Detroit, minor faux paus-too bad, they could use cheap power. I remember that Star Trek episode. They should have done one where a clock chimed and the earth people of the past went plain dumb/crazy and elected – not once, but twice-a rotten-to-the-core cabal headed by something called “the Bush creature”. Mayor Bloomberg of N.Y.C. and Gov. Arnie of Calif. were on PBS Charlie Rose Show last night. They basically called Bush a total jackass re. the environment. Bloomberg basically said: ” what’s with this frickin’ country -our “leaders” and the voters who put them in office ? ? -the U.S. USED to lead the world in a lot of good things and also be pushing the envelope of progress- it was one reason people like Arnie wanted to come here” . No halibuting kidding-I don’t know much about him, but I’m impressed now- he called a spade a spade in no uncertain terms. IF HE had been on the Tesla Board, and Arnie, Martin would still be there, for one small side issue example, amongst the mountain of rotting halibut /cabbage piling up in this country.
Comment by T.J. April 18, 2008 @ 3:55 pmTJ wrote, “A lot of these mangy sites lie fallow for years and never sell.”
There are quite a few of them around Santa Cruz city and county, CA. It would be nice to see solar “minifarms” on these lots. On the other hand, with reference to Detroit, I note that our problems with gangs and tagging are rising, so I wonder how much security these installations would require, and how that would affect their margins of profitability?
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 18, 2008 @ 5:41 pmTJ wrote, “The Dept. of Energy should fund that, not the Navy-of course that will happen maybe only when Bush is gone.” In Google talk, cited above, Bussard goes into some entertaining detail about the politics of the funding fiefdoms in Washington, and why the Polywell project had always existed on a shoestring, flying under the radar within the Navy’s budget. The problem with flying under the radar is that, when the umbrella budget item that shelters you from view is itself axed, nobody is in a position to come forward and go to bat for your crucial research project that pretended to be expendable just to get minimal funding at all. It’s such a game they play with OUR money. That’s why I decided to send a few bucks directly. It was Bussard’s belief that DOE would NEVER fund Polywell research because they want the big budgetary bux in that department, and Polywell research won’t sustain their empire-building dreams. On the other hand, Tokamak and Stellerator research is expensive and labor-intensive: many more researchers can get much bigger grants to pursue those other topics, and the DOE can get much bigger administering all of that at the Federal level. So Tokamak and Stellerator are the stars, while Polywell would be ignored or outright attacked because of the threat it poses to researchers’ and bureaucrats’ meal tickets. Again, that is the usual lament of the crackpot, but Bussard was a solid physicist of international renown AND a former asst. director of the old Atomic Energy Commission. So he was well familiar with the way the game was played in Washington and at the federal labs. In the Google talk, he called the situation as he saw it. So refreshing!
Comment by James Anderson Merritt April 18, 2008 @ 5:49 pmJames- my father worked his whole life for the Atomic Energy Commission- in NY, NM & NV (it was the “big new govt. thing” when he got out of college c. 1952)- he remembers the name Bussard, said he was around for a long time. My father was one of the “anti-bureaucrats” in govt.- as in: he did a good (make that great) job, worked overtime, took work home ( and a lot as I remember) and didn’t go for any govt.-style funnybusiness, or contractors trying to fleece the govt. He worked in the industrial relations section of the AEC (contracts, test site contractor relations and all of that) and was set to be promoted to head of this dept. at the Las Vegas branch- until the retiring head guy he was set to replace brought in some good old boy buddy of his out of Chicago, or somewhere. When my father worked in the N.Y. City office he said a lot of the people there only worked half day and like “played the stock market” the rest of the day, etc. -this being the norm. So between this type of thing and the Chicago guy coming in (who was about my father’s age, meaning he’d be stuck at #2 long term) my father took the 30 yr. retirement option and quit in disgust- this was when he was 55, he’s 90 now and still getting nice retirement money (adjusted for inflation too-guess he made a good move !). Too bad weasels filter to the top ( in pre-planned fashion) often in this country & the govt. There was a brief time when GOOD people were filtering to the top, with more no doubt on the way-and potentially a lot more over time-and this time was, I will say again at the risk of being repetitive: during the JFK admin. This, no doubt,was just one thing about his govt. that lot of the good old boy weasels (worldwide, in fact) couldn’t tolerate-AND, importantly, allow to take hold ( ! and ! ).
Comment by T.J. April 18, 2008 @ 6:51 pmJust noticed that Nanosolar has put up on their website the e-mail letter they sent out re. small urban Nanosolar power plants. Also info. on a big french company called “EDF Energies Nouvelle” signing up with Nanosolar to get assured supply of part of Nanosolar’s 2009 production-they also invested $50 million in Nanosolar to help them ramp up more production. This company deals in all sorts of green energy, in europe and now in U.S. When fossil-fuel “sympathizers” (read: liars) say that going green will wreck the economy, tell that joke to the rest of the civilized (and uncivilized for that matter ! ) world – that vast majority of the world not under the thumb of our huge entrenched fossil fuel coprorations. I wonder how well organic farm produce would grow under the Nanosolar urban mini-solar farms ? That would be a great dual-use of the land- guess a lot of light would still filter in with the panels like 7′ off the ground ? Maybe paint the undersides white for good measure too.
Comment by T.J. April 18, 2008 @ 7:34 pmTJ,
Thanks for finding the Nanosolar update – I really respect how they keep quiet and just do what needs doing. Too many “green” execs make to many lectures and too many panel appearances, instead of making sure they do the job they were hired to do.
There are legitimate criticisms of many “green” techs – ethanol (from corn) impacts food prices and cultivated land use and doesn’t address CO2 production, BEV’s are significantly more costly to produce than other techs, solar requires large areas of land, etc. I recognize the importance of fossil fuels to both our security and our economy, and am just making sure that we follow the proper policies to yield the right solutions.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 19, 2008 @ 7:45 amHere’s a link about an interesting upcoming Nova program: http://climateprogress.org/2008/04/19/nova-the-car-of-the-future/#more-2666
Comment by Steve S. April 19, 2008 @ 9:58 amTom and Ray are both MIT graduates and very bright guys, in addition to being highly amusing. Dr. Joe Romm and some other remarkable people are in the show too.
Jason- aha!-but geothermal has no drawbacks (land or otherwise) I can see, besides the rather small, low tech. inconvenient truth of having to get power lines to where it’s at. I’d take this over daily coal trains stretching like a mile long, and stretching out into the future too -indefinitely, in increasing numbers and lengths- let alone tearing up the landsape to get coal, using all those huge dump trucks-and let alone, but of course CO 2 ! (and mercury, etc.) Until recently I had no idea of geothermal’s real potential (especially in like 11 western states)- it’s almost as if “someone” were trying to hide this fact- maybe not, but the MIT study on heat mining puts geothermal squarely on the map now.
Comment by T.J. April 19, 2008 @ 10:33 amForgot to mention-in terms of solar chewing up a lot of land, I was really surprised when CEO Martin of Nanosolar said that you could power 1000 homes off of the land of two avg. sized corner mini-marts (most take up 1/2 an acre). This idea, combined with remote big solar power plants would attack the problem from both sides, and get rid of a lot of blighted little city land parcels lying fallow “for like ever”- fallow no more: they are sun farms now!-and I like the idea of organic real mini-farms under the panels as well, if it would work. I had a similar idea when I said (once on this blog) that developers of new city or suburban large mixed use projects-retail/commercial/housing- could not only make them like “LEED platinum” in green design but also plaster so much Nanosolar and wind power on them that they would become small urban power plants-and this could be another way for the projects to generate extra cash. It would also be a yuppie type selling point for those wanting to live there, and it could be quite spectacular architecturally, another selling/leasing point. Guess this is the third thing that could be done to attack via solar from all sides ( the fourth, of course, being slapping it on existing bldg. roofs).
Comment by T.J. April 19, 2008 @ 10:48 amT.J.,
Nothing is perfect. Some of the geothermal sites produce toxic waste water and as far as I know all of them turn clean water into dirty water. (Why/how? Because hot water under ground is very good at dissolving whatever it touches.) Many of the western states that have good geothermal sites are already short of water.
There are a lot of good characteristics for geothermal. And the reduction of the number of “unit trains” of coal is a good thing all the way back to the source of the coal.
In my opinion the first best option is efficiency. In other words use energy as efficiently as you can, regardless of the source. And the second best option is flexibility. In other words be able to use energy from as many sources as possible.
Steve
Comment by Steve Uhlir April 19, 2008 @ 2:47 pmSteve- 10/4 that. Wow, I made a “minor” faux paus: need to get my eyes checked, original e-mail from Nanosolar WAS pretty small print, however: sez 10 acres powers 1000 homes, not 1 ac.. Still, 100 homes off of 1 ac. ain’t bad either (1000 off of 1 WAS too good to be true- that would be using those advanced solar cells that work across full light spectrum no doubt). Wonder about effectiveness of doing small solar plots on, like 1-5 acres ? -there are a lot of scattered plots in this size range all over cities/towns. Wonder how much copper wire would be used -better have a nice high fence in that regard. There is an old gym bldg. (closed, boarded up) we’re doing drawings for for someone-turning it into a market. Every piece of copper in the joint has been pilfered-and I do mean every: in rooftop a/c units, restroom plumbing, elect. panels- they even dug all around 2 inside pools with jackhammers- and ripped out the small wall speakers on a sun deck- the Chinese are causing trouble in the realm of copper. NASA climate scientist James Hansen was in town -getting award at Desert Research Institute- and slamming 3 proposed Nev. coal plants (our esteemed gov. ain’t no Arnie). He said 1/5 of co2 emissions remain in atmosphere for 1000 years-and that one big source that could be controlled is coal- since unlike vehicle emissions it comes from big-chunk sources: power plants. He said : ” we have to find out how to live without fossil fuels pretty soon”. Re. coal plants : “it’s just silly for Nev, with its potential to be a leader in renewable energy. You could export renewable energy to Calif. and other places”. Actually, believe it or not, Nev., since population pretty low, has highest state per capita use of green energy.
Comment by T.J. April 19, 2008 @ 4:31 pmT.J., you’re absolutely right about the value of geothermal power plants http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_energy_in_the_United_States wherever the geology is appropriate for them. It’s a shame they haven’t gotten more ink. In their favor, the oil industry has developed geomapping and drilling to a fine art.
The interest in wind power, with all its problems, has been driven largely by its being the least expensive to implement. Cheap solar panels like those developed by Nanosolar could change all that, in areas with regular sunshine. I hope the technology is successful: a printing-type process instead of vacuum deposition opens the question of durability. It seems that the panels are less efficient and have only the advantage of being less expensive, but that’s enough for now. Concentrated solar plants seem to have promise too.
Areas under power lines, as has been pointed out, would be good for solar plants.
I have to say that Nanosolar raises some warning
Comment by Steve S. April 19, 2008 @ 4:45 pmsignals, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanosolar , e.g. getting rid of their well-respected chief scientist, the multiple production delays, and for me the slightly nut-case rhetoric about trying to auction off a solar panel on eBay. In any case, I hope the technology proves itself.
Correction: Nev. #1 par capita in solar power, not green.
Comment by T.J. April 19, 2008 @ 4:50 pmTJ,
Does that Nevada “per capita” figure mean anything, when Nevada sells electricity to California?
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 20, 2008 @ 6:52 amJason -you mean Hoover dam power? Don’t think solar is going to Calif. Nellis Air Force base just installed what is the “largest PV solar plant in North America” (per “Nellis solar power plant-wikipedia”) , supplying “over 25% of power for base”. “Finally” a good example of “our tax dollars at work” as supposed to “at play” wherein they toy with us and hope we don’t notice (Iraq, farm subsidy /ethanol/etc.-”to infinity and beyond”- scams….)
Comment by T.J. April 20, 2008 @ 3:24 pmNote in Nellis Solar wikipedia article that Air Force saves $1 million on power bills per year with this- so who sez solar energy doesn’t pay ? (anyway, huh ?) )
Comment by T.J. April 20, 2008 @ 3:39 pmBBC news article today: graphene to replace silicon in transistors in maybe 10 years- is “graphite like in pencil lead, only nano- layer 1 atom thick, an excellent conductor”. Other online info. says graphene maybe good for future solar cells- lets 80% of light pass thru, and light in infrared too- like doubling potential solar cell power,- is combined with titanium dioxide “which is what’s in white paint”- so future solar cell could be cheaper, without the rare & more expensive ingredients.
Comment by T.J. April 20, 2008 @ 5:58 pmHere’s a link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nellis_Solar_Power_Plant
Comment by Steve S. April 20, 2008 @ 6:04 pmto the Nellis solar plant wiki article.
T.J., This process http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_layer_deposition might be ideal for coating large area (at least a meter in diameter) carbon monolayers (graphene). Titanium dioxide, or any of a large number of other materials, in a layer of 1 up to a few thousand atoms thick can precede and/or follow. I thought I’d mention it on the slim chance that it’s a new idea and some cabbage head might try to patent the idea and keep others from freely developing it.
Comment by Steve S. April 20, 2008 @ 6:52 pmClever way of increasing the surface area of thin film dyes, with stunning results. There plans to use this approach for titania would creately improve the efficiency of solar hydrogen generators.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52197
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 21, 2008 @ 5:11 amHere is a vehicle that is using hydraulics as a means of regenerative braking:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/12/parker-hannifin.html
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 21, 2008 @ 5:19 amI bet that S. Korean cosmonaut wishes she came back to Earth in Virgin Galactic ship, as opposed to the “ballistic” re-entry she endured in the Russian capsule.
Comment by Jason M. Hendler April 21, 2008 @ 7:32 amYou can see a video of the Focus Green presentation here:
http://ia360904.us.archive.org/2/items/focusgreenteslamotors/fgtesla.mov
Comment by mfeberhard April 21, 2008 @ 4:36 pmNo, I don’t think she’d like being incinerated.
=
Comment by Doug April 21, 2008 @ 9:26 pmThe Focus Green presentation video was very well done! You guys are good. You took the sound system problems in stride, touched all the bases really well, and connected strongly with the audience. You were even kind to us sensitive EV-1 and RAV-4 EV fans. I particularly enjoyed the Q & A.
Martin sez:
Thanks!
Comment by Steve S. April 21, 2008 @ 10:44 pmA bit more on the boat full of Mazda’s that took on water:
“How to Destroy Brand-New Cars”
Another instance where it would have been a great opportunity to refurbish and rebrand the chassis as EVs…
Comment by TEG May 2, 2008 @ 4:05 pmMy Cracks and Serials…
I can not agree with you in 100% regarding some thoughts, but you got good point of view…
Trackback by My Cracks and Serials May 8, 2008 @ 8:27 amMartin,
Tell us about your next projects, let’s the innovator move beyond the TM adventure.
Martin sez:
I will do so in the next month or two. I have spent a lot of time studying energy – from generation (e.g. solar) through to consumption (e.g. electric cars), with though towards storage, efficiency, and demand management. I am looking for that magical cross-section where there is a problem to be solved, the solution will make a difference, and I have something meaningful to contribute.
Comment by EG May 14, 2008 @ 10:31 amIt will be refreshing to hear what you’ve come up with in the way of future projects. There are a lot of people living vicariously with your battles now that tend not to be operating in the physical dimensions of reality, and maybe a solid goal from you will quiet the clamor.
I got to the showroom a couple of hours before the Saturday open house and managed to talk my way into a brief drive around the block a couple of times in what they told me was P2 (red, my planned on color selection.) What a great experience! It will make the wait until next year seem even longer, but for that experience, I thank you. Your vision has turned into an exciting reality and a real hope for the future of this world. Thank you for all you’ve done.
Comment by Roger Richardson May 19, 2008 @ 7:26 pmRoger wrote:
## what they told me was P2 (red, my planned on color selection.)
Um, hopefully they meant EP2, not P2.
Comment by TEG May 19, 2008 @ 10:51 pmP2 is Martin’s car you know…
Nope, most likely they said and meant P2 (VIN F003) which is a red car.
Martin sez: Argh!
Comment by Doug@Stanford May 20, 2008 @ 5:06 amSo they were letting waitlist customers test drive a founders series car?
So,
Comment by TEG May 20, 2008 @ 7:09 amEP1 and P1 are both black,
EP2 and P2 are both red…?
Well, not trying to get any of the staff in trouble there, but since I drove in from the Phoenix area and I was really early, they were nice enough to let me take a spin since it would have entailed another trip at a later time for a test drive. That allowed me to conclude my business and head back to the land of heat and sun early in the day. I’m assuming that there was some agreement with the owner to allow this since no one would have stuck their neck out for me, I’ve got no pull with anyone.
Martin, I wasn’t trying to stir the pot for you again. It truely was a thank you to the guy who first had this car as a gleam in his eye.
Comment by Roger Richardson May 20, 2008 @ 10:55 amMartin sez: Argh!
Martin, really sorry to reopen the wound.
Comment by Doug@Stanford May 20, 2008 @ 6:55 pmMartin wrote:
# I have spent a lot of time studying energy – from generation (e.g. solar) through to consumption (e.g. electric cars), with though towards storage, efficiency, and demand management.
Did you look at this?
Martin sez:
Interesting – thanks!
Comment by TEG May 20, 2008 @ 11:20 pmWhen Martin talks…
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/05/22/hawaii-governor-reports-talks-with-better-place/
OK, gotta give kudo to Shai too. His speech is sooo inspiring.
Comment by vfx May 22, 2008 @ 7:42 amThe link to the presentation is no longer working! Argh – I want to link to it from my website – is there an alternative?
Martin sez:
Such is the way of the web. Did someone out there grab a copy? Otherwise, there’s the internet wayback machine…
Comment by Bryn Deamer July 25, 2008 @ 6:10 pmGovernor Lingle of Hawaii has made a major announcement for a renewable grid.
October 20, 2008 Monday – States News Service – HONOLULU, http://www.heco.com/vcmcontent/StaticFiles/pdf/STATE_HECO_Energy_Future_Agreement_10_20_08.pdf
STATE AND HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC STRIKE SWEEPING AGREEMENT FOR HAWAI’I'S
ENERGY
FUTURE
The following information was released by the office of the governor of
Hawaii:
Governor Linda Lingle today announced a comprehensive agreement to
decisively move the state away from its dependence on fossil fuels for
electricity and ground transportation.
The historic accord – agreed to between the Lingle-Aiona Administration,
including the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
and
the State Consumer Advocate, and the Hawaiian Electric companies – is an
achievement stemming from months of discussions and work on the Hawai’i
Clean Energy Initiative. This effort, which began in January between the
state and U.S. Department of Energy, seeks to move Hawai’i toward having
70 percent of its energy use come from clean energy sources by 2030.
The agreement will reduce by many years the process of moving the state
forward to a clean-energy-driven economy by accelerating regulatory
changes.
“This is a detailed plan to implement the Hawai’i Clean Energy
Initiative
with sweeping changes that are needed to reduce our dependence on
imported
fossil fuel and to achieve a more secure energy and economic future,”
said
Governor Lingle. “I feel strongly that the state and our major utility
can
and must continue finding common ground in moving forward and taking
decisive and bold steps toward an energy-independent Hawai’i.”
Major highlights of the agreement include:
A commitment to integrate as much as 1100 megawatts (MW) of already
identified additional renewable energy on the Hawaiian Electric
companies’
grids (700 MW to be implemented within five years).
The construction of an undersea cable connecting Maui, Moloka’i and
LÄna’i
into one electrical grid to allow the integration of an additional 400
MW
of renewable wind power generated in Maui County for transmission to
O’ahu.
A requirement that 40 percent of electric power come from renewable
resources by 2030, doubling the current Renewable Portfolio Standard
requirement law.
A “feed-in” tariff system designed to dramatically accelerate the
addition
of renewable energy from new sources by providing published purchased
power prices for renewable power providers, which would encourage
increased development of alternative energy projects.
Seeking prompt approvals from the Hawai’i Public Utilities Commission
for
the immediate deployment of advanced meters and for implementation of
time-of-use rates that reward customers with lower electric rates for
using power during off-peak times. This change will support the
development of a “smart grid” to allow customers far greater control of
their energy use and their electricity bills.
Changing the way Hawaiian Electric is compensated by moving away from a
business model that places reliance on increased electric sales.
Commitment from the Hawaiian Electric companies to retire older fossil
fuel powered energy generation plants as Hawai’i moves to a renewable
energy future.
Conversion of existing fossil fuel generators to renewable biofuels,
ultimately using crops grown locally and in a sustainable manner.
A prohibition on the construction of any new coal plants in Hawai’i.
Expanding the Pay-As-You-Save program under which customers can install
solar water heating systems without having to pay money up front, but
can
acquire energy-saving improvements through shared savings on their
electric bills.
Eliminating existing system-wide caps on net energy metering to allow
customers on each island to produce their own renewable energy and
obtain
credit on their electric bills for any excess exported to the grid.
Submitting a proposal to the PUC for establishment of “lifeline” rates,
which provide a cap for certain low income customers.
Committing the state and Hawaiian Electric Companies to a program that
will identify and implement incentives needed to encourage adoption of
electric vehicles for individual and fleet use, and also lead by example
by acquiring hybrid or electric-only vehicles for government and utility
fleets.
“With this agreement, Hawai’i moves to the forefront in energy
leadership
in the nation,” said Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary of the U.S.
Department of Energy, whose office helped negotiate the agreement.
“Hawai’i’s vision will prove to be a boon to the local economy and
will
lead to more stability and long-term reductions in the cost of energy in
Hawai’i. It will provide future generations with significant
independence
from imported fuel.
“I applaud Governor Lingle for her commitment to pursuing the Hawai’i
Clean Energy Initiative. She has made it a personal priority, kept
everyone’s feet to the fire and made sure that the final result is in
the
public’s best interest,” Kolevar said. “Without her leadership none
of
this would be possible.”
“This agreement reinforces that Hawai’i is open for energy business,”
said
Ted Liu, director of the State Department of Business, Economic
Development, and Tourism. “It will require focused and upfront
investment
in order to get Hawai’i off its dependence on imported oil, but in the
long term, will lead to significant reductions in energy costs to
Hawai’i’s consumers. It is an investment in a healthy future for our
economy and for our environment. The path is not necessarily easy, but
it
will reward all of us in the end.”
“This agreement also includes measures to assist Hawai’i consumers,
providing options to help them reduce their electricity bills,” said
State
Consumer Advocate Catherine Awakuni. “Provisions include advanced meters
and pricing that will reward customers for wise energy choices,
no-money-down solar water heating installations, and an end to a utility
business model based on increasing sales rather than encouraging
decreases
and efficiencies in energy use. All of this will help utility ratepayers
in the days ahead.”
“We appreciate the opportunity to participate in this critical effort
led
by Governor Lingle and her Administration, in particular the
Department of
Business, Economic Development and Tourism’s energy division, and the
contribution of time and expertise of the U.S. Department of Energy,”
said
Constance Lau, chairman of the board, Hawaiian Electric Company.
“We are committed to making these plans a reality and working together
with the state to achieve a more secure, economically viable and
environmentally responsible energy future for Hawai’i,” Lau said.
While this agreement is with the Hawaiian Electric utilities, the state
and the consumer advocate are also working separately with Kaua’i Island
Utility Cooperative (KIUC). KIUC and Kaua’i County are active
participants
in the Hawai’i Clean Energy Initiative. Kaua’i has unique energy issues
such as a utility cooperative status, the lack of inter-island cable
potential today, the existing grid lay-out, and limits to some renewable
energy choices due to threatened and endangered avian populations which
compel a separate agreement. KIUC and the U.S. Department of Energy are
also working to model the KIUC grid to better understand the electricity
choices available to Kaua’i.
the agreement
http://www.heco.com/vcmcontent/StaticFiles/pdf/STATE_HECO_Energy_Future_Agreement_10_20_08.pdf
more reading:
http://tdworld.com/underground_transmission_distribution/hawaii-state-energy-plan-1008/
http://hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/energy/policy
Comment by vfx November 5, 2008 @ 8:05 amMore on Martin’s Hawaii coming to life:
Comment by vfx December 3, 2008 @ 2:07 pmhttp://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/12/03/hawaii-becomes-a-better-place/
Anti fuel cell sentiments ‘gaining steam’.
Comment by TEG February 17, 2009 @ 2:10 pm