Stealth Cabbage
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Dear former Tesla Motors Visionaries, please follow you vision and use your experience to help alternative transportation. How about a company like Venture Vehicles, the official site: http://www.flytheroad.com or the club site http://www.flytheroadclub.com. It’s another start-up, but it looks like their first vehicles will be an affordable EV and PHEV. It would at least be interesting to see your input on the club website! They are taking the fun vehicle approach too!
Comment by Dave January 12, 2008 @ 11:57 amMartin,
Comment by Tom B. January 12, 2008 @ 3:15 pmI work for a vehicle builder in the valley that soon will field a hybrid electric vehicle. I could use people with these skills on my team. I would be interested in looking at the resumes of anyone that might be interested.
Hi Martin,
It’s time to take on another project.
Wouldn’t it be fun to build a car that could actually qualify for the X-prize competition and still provide all the functionality of the Tesla roadster? Ego satisfaction of the motorist might be more of a challenge, though when faced with riding public transportation, that same motorist might be willing to entertain new possibilities.
The Miastrada is a project that might be worth your attention. The web site
( http://www.miastrada.com ) has only a part of the story.
In connection with this high efficiency car, there is an interesting cogeneration system possibility that could have a strong effect before solar cells get cheap enough.
Together, these parts of the project could get the USA on the Kyoto track by 2012. Nothing else comes close to this.
Best regards, Jim Bullis
Comment by Jim Bullis January 12, 2008 @ 6:27 pmJim Bulis: I tried to leave a comment on the maistrada site but only hung. I think it is very ill conceived and impratical with tiny wheels that could not handle a speed bump or a rough road, etc. But look to http://www.aptera.com for a far more refined and pratical approach to this idea.
Comment by Roy January 12, 2008 @ 7:40 pmThe tesla motors blog was like an addiction for me. Had to go there everyday and check out any additions / updates. Changing to a new drug now – teslafounders.wordpress.com!
Martin sez:
http://www.teslafounders.com works too.
Comment by Surya January 12, 2008 @ 10:17 pmI agree with Roy, actually. Aptera is great.
Comment by trademark January 12, 2008 @ 11:23 pmJoseph sez…
“It’s really kind of scary to think I am communicating with someone like you (Martin) without ever even seeing you before!”
Haha!!! I know right? I’m going to second that one. That is why Martin is so kool.
Comment by Jeffrey January 13, 2008 @ 7:56 pmFor anyone who might be interested –
We are currently hiring mechanical and electronics (power and control) for our diesel-electric yacht system development.
Martin sez:
I am going out on a limb here and naming your company. I hope I read your intentions correctly.
Comment by Kevin Alston January 14, 2008 @ 9:03 amThe company is Glacier Bay.
Dear Martin,
The offer still stands. Come to sunny Spain and create a new EV and bring the rest of your crew. I´m sure Seat will jump`at the opportunity to work with us.
From the list of fired employees a new company could be formed in two days.
Create an all electrical compact range like the Citroen C1 or Peugeot 106 and the world will be at your feet.
Go for it!
Comment by Tshooter Spain January 15, 2008 @ 2:16 amI am working on a similar project on a much smaller budget. Does anyone know the names and phone nubers of the people who were terminated? I’m needing several technical people immediately!
Comment by Allen Hammond January 15, 2008 @ 8:04 amMessage to this BLOG and the 25+ “ones from the list” PLEASE NOTE:
I am “One from the List” and I have to tell you that everything that Martin has done on this blog has helped me greatly.
As a matter of fact, Due to this BLOG, I was able get the name of a company, and yesterday via Linked In, A contact was made, and I will be interviewing shortly…. Regardless of what this list is about and who posts about what subject, This is helpful..
Martin, Just a note.. Keep it up.. Your words are inspiring, and now, your words are getting me contacts in the industry, and hopefully I will have a new Job soon… They were very eager to speak to me after finding out I was a “Lister” from Tesla……
If you are “any of the others from the list” Keep your chin up and hit up the names of companies that show up here… They are more than eager to grasp any Teslan they can get their hands on….
Best to you all my friends.
Comment by One from the List...... January 15, 2008 @ 9:49 amOFTL “one from the list”
Please Read: A Note on Moderation
This WordPress automated blog machinery will sometimes hold your postings for me to moderate based on a variety of factors (not all of which I yet understand
) I try to get to them as often as possible, but sometimes I am busy. For example, I am going to go split the wood I cut yesterday from a huge tree that fell across my road, so no moderation for the next few hours.
When I moderate, I cabbage-ize certain words and expressions, dump truly nasty attacks that seem not to have any real content, cut off the nth iteration of bickering about a subject (where n is like 5), etc. I lean toward preferring to post, and I do not remove or edit something just because I disagree or it makes me look bad.
I also occasionally correct spelling, when I think it is necessary for clarity and the intended word is obvious.
Spam: If you post something and it does not immediately show, then chances are that it is awaiting moderation. If you re-post the exact same thing, then WordPress’s automatic spam filter will chuck both copies of your post into the spam bin, which I check much, much less frequently. (At first I didn’t understand how to get at the alleged spam, so I was just flushing the whole bin.)
Comment by mfeberhard January 16, 2008 @ 11:28 amMartin,
Since we are still trying to recover from the midwest ice storm, you are welcome to split all the wood you want while visiting my electric lawn tractors — see you soon! Andy DeShon
Martin sez:
Thanks. We had 4 big trees come down this last storm, so we have enough wood for a couple of years. I split about a cord today – hydraulics are wonderful. (We live out in the country, so losing 4 trees is no big deal.)
Comment by Andy DeShon January 16, 2008 @ 5:23 pmHi Martin
On a side note, you got my curiosity going
Would you mind to tell us why Ian Wright “decided” to leave Tesla. According to http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/04/autos/electric_wright.fortune/
“Wright, 51, an electrical engineer, was the first person hired at Tesla Motors. (The company’s $98,000 electric sports car, based on a Lotus and considerably slower than Wright’s X1 with a 0 to 60 of about four seconds, is due next spring.) For a year he oversaw engineering and vehicle development, but ultimately his vision of an electric performance car and Tesla’s were too different”
And on another side note: I sense “bitterness” re Elon Musk. Perhaps best to try to “forgive” as bitterness can cause illness e.g. cancer, a disease nobody wants. Easier said than done, I know.
Peace to you.
Martin sez:
Ian and I have significantly different outlooks on life. He’s a smart guy, but we just can’t work together.
Comment by Jgbjgb January 17, 2008 @ 11:05 amMartin,
Are you going to continue your valuable help on the SAE J1772 Task Force?
I was impressed how you handled the big 4 and big japanese and pushed for a standard connector.
Please keep up the good work!
Martin sez:
Hmm. Don’t know how to do that – I have no company and therefore no standing on the committee, I think.
Comment by Chuck January 17, 2008 @ 2:45 pm[...] Stealth… Stealth Cabbage Tesla Founders Blog [...]
Pingback by Stealth... - Tesla Motors Club Forum January 18, 2008 @ 10:58 amIt’s also gotta stick in someone’s craw over at Tesla that the Teslafounders posting count was blowing theirs away. Yesterday they were at about 160 quarrelsome blogs while Lil ol’ Martin had over 250 pleasantries from loyal bloggers.
Comment by vfxx January 18, 2008 @ 11:23 am[Cabbage] indeed. Once again the dollar rules the day. I’m glad I got the chance to read the original posting before it went away.
Comment by Alan January 18, 2008 @ 11:45 amI never would have thought the hundreds of opinions expressed here could be so detrimental to Tesla’s hard ego, but in fact it diced right through. After all it is only text. HAHA! You guys are like a bunch of children. Mommy!!! Tesla Motors just can’t handle the truth. Darryl Siry is such a great blogger (NOT) why couldn’t they have just had him cook up another fake response to justify everything. No offense Siry. Your just doing what your told right? Blah
Comment by Jeffrey January 18, 2008 @ 1:33 pmYes it was interesting to read, but if you don’t want lawsuit, then its better to take it down
Comment by Johan January 18, 2008 @ 4:03 pmHey Martin,
Sad to hear they took down the truth. The truth hurts sometimes doesn’t it… You have been an inspiration to all of us advocating electric cars. I have ordered a tesla and now I am left wondering what this company stands for.
Email me if you are interested in a new journey
-Andrew
Comment by Andrew January 18, 2008 @ 4:10 pmP.S. Hope you come visit us in Kansas!
Martin,
The whole Tesla direction is changing quite fast it seems. I’m shocked that such a shake-up has occurred.
I posted on the Tesla blog fairly regularly, and used to push for Tesla to offer an option or second generation car as a REEV, similar to the Chevy Volt. Despite this differing from your Tesla Motors business plan of all-electric, I think we share quite similar views: All-electric is the way to go, but a REEV is a practical step towards that until the technology improves to the point of eliminating any limitation.
In any case, thanks for setting up another blog to share your views and perspectives!
- Eric
Comment by Eric January 18, 2008 @ 7:47 pmHi Martin,
While recent events at Tesla are ‘unfortunate’ to say the least, the accomplishments and sense of purpose that you and your team put together will proliferate. Your x-CIO noted that what used to be a good job opportunity is no longer good enough. I hope you take a good chunk of time off, do a little well deserved basking in glow of what has been achieved, and again channel your creativity into that well developed sense of purpose.
Steve
Comment by Steve Walther January 19, 2008 @ 9:16 amMartin,
Comment by Patman3 January 19, 2008 @ 4:00 pmBefore you do that I think you should do at least 50% to 75% of that list first. Ya.
Dear Martin:
I fear that Tesla is going to implode and along with it the dream of an EV revolution. Is this fear justified? In one of the blogs, I brought to the attention of Tesla that there are Compressed Air vehicles technology that is out there like the French MDI companies and the South Korean Energine Companies in existence now. I just suggested that perhaps Tesla could partner with one of these companies to create an Air-Electric car to extend the range. I was quickly rebuffed by the moderater at Tesla to go and start my own car company. Anyway it was just a suggestion. What are your thoughts?
Martin sez:
The compressed air car concept has been discussed elsewhere in this blog. The long and short of it is that compressing air uses electricity just as charging a battery does. The question then is how efficient is compressed as an energy *storage* medium? The answer is: batteries are a lot more efficient. There are a lot of reasons; more than I can possibly type from this blackberry…
There are other issues too: safety comes to mind. Ever see what happens if you bust the valve off of a 5000 PSI gas cylander? I suspect highly-compressed gas is more dangerous than the equivalent energy stored in a battery.
Comment by pxtol January 19, 2008 @ 5:06 pmMartin,
For one thing the agreement that you signed has nothing to do with being fired. The disclosure of any information, which there wasn’t from all that I have read, has nothing to do with this clause. The problem is they are scared and do no want the negative repercussions against them, which I am sorry to say will happen even faster that they think. Once they fired you the clause ceases to exist because they broke the contract clause, not you. The future will hold what will be seen. Especially things they don’t want and refuse to see.
Anyway, enough of my banter.
I haven’t seen any of the responses since I was last on this blog some days ago.
I own two companies which are direct competition with Tesla and ahead of them. Never have I seen this “I’m scared you’ll say somethng” behavior like this from corporate exec’s.
Sorry Martin, I am going to take a walk and come back and type again. A little perturbed at this childish behavior from them.
Comment by NRI January 19, 2008 @ 8:06 pmMartin, you and/or Tesla may wish to contact Google and see if they can flush their cache for this page. People have found old, “uncabbaged” copies of this page in the Google cache.
Comment by TEG January 19, 2008 @ 9:50 pmWould appreciate any insights into future battery affordability (aka achilles heel). Like you said elsewhere, dang things need to get several times as dense and an order of magnitude cheaper. What is SionPower doing (esp w/ recent agreement with PolyPlus)? Is A123 or EnerDel cheaper? The nanowire report is interesting, but of course that one needs similar improvements to the cathode, and it doesn’t sound cheap….
As for cabbage, well, truth will out. We all want someone to succeed bringing an electric car to market, just as I’d like to see cheaper access to space, but the car isn’t out, and the rocket has yet to reach orbit. Time will prove success or failure.
Comment by David Navas January 20, 2008 @ 9:19 amIt is also interesting to note that in the last nine (9) month, eleven (11) executives are no longer with Tesla Motors. That is 1.22 executive turn-over per month.
“The Tesla Motors Team” can be found here: http://www.teslamotors.com/media/company_team.php
If someone could publish cached snapshots of this address month by month, it would be very revealing.
The executive level spring cleaning is over, but I am afraid that it is only the beginning for the mid-level management power struggle due to the power vacuum left behind. As a survivor, this is definitely NOT fun to watch from the inside.
Comment by StillHasAJob@TM January 20, 2008 @ 4:37 pmMarc, JB and the two Malcolms have been on the team page as far back as I can remember, so at least some of the senior staff is still consistent.
Many of the employment page job postings have been listed for a long time. It doesn’t appear like they are in a big hurry to fill those positions.
Interestingly 100% of the job postings right now are in San Carlos. Are there open positions for the other offices (e.g.: Michigan, New Mexico, UK, etc) listed somewhere else?
I wonder if Elon got his car yet. I was expecting VIN#1 customer car to be delivered soon, but now I am hearing about more VPs coming in.
Comment by TEG January 20, 2008 @ 5:37 pm“I wonder if Elon got his car yet. I was expecting VIN#1 customer car to be delivered soon, but now I am hearing about more VPs coming in.”
What? Where did you hear that more VPs are coming?
Comment by Joseph January 20, 2008 @ 8:57 pmJoseph wrote:
What? Where did you hear that more VPs are coming?
It seems VP11 was announced on the customer forums
Comment by TEG January 21, 2008 @ 1:21 am@ TEG,
>> >> Marc, JB and the two Malcolms have been on the team page as far back as I can remember, so at least some of the senior staff is still consistent. >> >>
Two out of the four aforementioned executives are no longer with Tesla Motors as of last Friday.
Comment by know someone from the list January 21, 2008 @ 12:51 pmwow, Tesla has really turned into a suppressor of truth. I never sign NDAs. I wont be party to secrets because secrecy is evil although most of you are not aware there is such a thing.
I like your appetite for truth Martin and I hope you will take this opportunity to make that more pronounced in your life. A powerful ally it is.
I sensed Elon wasn’t similarly liberated, no intelligent man goes into rocketry thinking it’s an honest competition if his eyes are open, but these events seem to have darkened his mind. The dark side I sense in him
I hope this oppression has made you disappointed Martin and that you will take this opportunity to fight back by calling Bob Lutz to urge him to free the remaining EV1s.
THIS…. IS…. SPARTA!
Comment by Dan Frederiksen January 21, 2008 @ 12:57 pmI am irked (that is the most my vocabulary could muster at this time of the night) that you were coerced into taking this down! My appetite for the truth just got even more insatiable! You have my support!
Comment by DrTaras January 23, 2008 @ 1:32 amPS-What do you think of the news last week of Israel FINALLY getting into the EV “game?”
>> Two out of the four aforementioned executives are no longer with Tesla Motors as of last Friday.
They are already gone from Team Page.
Comment by Dean January 23, 2008 @ 8:46 amHow long until only Ze’ev and Siry are there?
New automobile manufacturer avoids final production obstacle with a hurdle
Troublesome two speed transmission issue is resolved with one speed…. Brilliant! Can’t imagine where the inspiration for this solution came from. Sounds like it’ll work, but gotta believe this solution would have been better had all systems been engineered for this from early design stage.
Comment by David Kosowsky January 23, 2008 @ 8:12 pmMartin, unless my memory is failing me, I believe that a single speed transmission was your original plan, but had to be abandoned in order to satisfy both the acceleration AND top speed requirements for the roadster. Can you comment on whether you feel the challenges that originally caused the abandonment of this idea can now somehow be overcome?
Martin sez:
I really can’t comment on what Tesla is now doing.
Comment by Steve January 23, 2008 @ 8:52 pmWhat a pity that Martin can’t comment on anything about Tesla. My two cents on the transmission solution is this, but it is only a guess. The last two transmission suppliers probably rang up the engineers at the first two and discovered that every single solution they had thought of had already been tried and didn’t work. So, then they went back to Elon Musk and convinced him that if the experienced transmission engineers at four different transmission suppliers are all telling him it can’t be done….it probably can’t be done! Finally Elon sees the light and looks for a different way to solve the problem of meeting the 4-second 0-60 target. Compromise is a wonderful thing.
What a shame they couldn’t have gone through this process while Martin still had his job!
Comment by Andrew Kelsey January 24, 2008 @ 8:17 amMartin–
how about building your next company in Oakland? Contact Van Jones at the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights about creating “green collar jobs”
Comment by Charlie Crystle January 24, 2008 @ 2:04 pmWhoa…! Now, HOLD ON a minute. I will be the first to admit that I have an overactive imagination, but something smells mighty fishy to me here.
Why has the already redacted entry for this blog been edited yet again to a bare-bones statement? And why can’t Martin comment on Tesla –even anything complimentary, positive, or encouraging?
I certainly don’t expect –nor want– Martin to respond here, but what this suggests to me is that the company’s threat is no longer a mere threat: they are actually going through with it.
I sincerely and fervently hope that this is NOT the case. If it is… I predict that public opinion will deem it petulant, vindictive, downright despicable, and devoid of any constructive purpose whatsoever. Indeed, it would do more harm than good, not only to the company, but also to its customers, present and future.
In short, it would be a fool’s errand to try and inflict punitive damages on someone for openly expressing sympathy, compassion, regret, and heartache over other former employees also being fired –whether or not the dismissals were justified. Instead, the company needs to focus exclusively on making the Roadster a success –which is exactly what Martin himself has stated that he wants to see happen on numerous occasions.
Comment by Yanquetino January 24, 2008 @ 6:46 pmMartin,
Comment by watching from the sideline January 24, 2008 @ 8:18 pmWill there be other “Tesla Founders” joining you on this blog? I am eager to read their blog entries !! Looking forward to more…..
Sideliner
Where are all the super-angels when you need one (or 2!)?
Comment by Andy DeShon January 25, 2008 @ 10:42 pmCharles, if you had even half an idea of how companies, sometimes even companies that become great companies, got started you wouldn’t be nearly as demanding of perfection as you are. Colin Chapman, who started Lotus as I assume you know, never had much money in the early days and was a bit of a hustler by all accounts. Had he not died of a heart attack he would probably have gone to prison for his later involvement with the John DeLorean scam. His financial director did spend some time at her Majesty’s pleasure, as we say. I don’t know what Chapman promised to people back then but I do know that he wasn’t able to pay my father any wages for several months and gave him a car in lieu of payment. He actually just gave him the materials, but dad had to build it! My point is that it isn’t always easy getting started, especially when you want to go into the car business. I’m curious to know if you’ve ever started a company yourself or if you just enjoy playing Monday morning quarterback for people like Martin. I have started a company. It was a long time ago but I do remember this; it was a lot harder than just drawing a pay cheque every month. Incidentally Charles, when you look at all those other projects like the Miastrada, the Aptera and whatever else you were referring to above, does it not for a second occur to you that the whole Tesla project is just way above everything else out there? First, it looks like a real car and a real sexy car too. Second it has been approved for sale in the US of A and has passed the crash tests and all the other boring stuff you have to pass to get that approval. Third it has a range that is way above any other electric car that is even close to getting to market. Fourth it has performance that is way above any other project that is anywhere near. So, it’s late and it doesn’t exactly meet the spec that was originally aimed for. Most of the actual buyers, as opposed to the people like you who just enjoy carping about it, are fairly content with the car as it now is and will be when they finally get it into production. If they’re happy, why aren’t you? Nobody is forcing you to buy one.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey January 26, 2008 @ 11:28 amIn spite of what you guys say, to me, Tesla is the culmination of a dream that a lot of people shared and would have done if they too had the time, money, and expertise to make it real.
The Venturi Fetish is a similar realization of the same dream.
Unfortunately the cost of batteries and light weight technology is too much to let such vehicles achieve mass appeal, so they are still just “toys for the rich” at the moment. I am confident that they can make them reliable given a bit more time, but I still wonder if the business plan is going to work out with battery prices still so high.
By the way, Charles, Tesla is based in San Mateo county, not Santa Clara.
Comment by TEG January 26, 2008 @ 2:45 pmWow, are so many of you so harsh! After owing two Lotuses, one – the first twin cam Europa for the US and then a Series 1 Esprit, be glad that Tesla is offering the “upgrade” down the road. Colin Chapman was never able or maybe willing to do this. He sold his cars with a myriad of problems which the cars were known for. And year after year.
I bought the Europa at the factory and over the years got a good feeling about how, as the locals said “Lotus throws together their cars”.
A new business is tough enought to start, a car business even tougher…and then to create an electric car that nobody has done yet.
Cheer them on guys! Start ups are brutal for everyone!
Martin sez:
Thanks, Barry.
As a former Europa owner, I especially appreciate your words
Comment by Barry Thorsness January 26, 2008 @ 3:28 pmYeah, apparently Lotus stands for Lots Of Trouble Usually Serious. I think they’re a bit better now, but they’re a good example of an imperfect car company that has nonetheless stood the test of time. They’ve stumbled along through different ownership and all kinds of trouble but they’re still there and still making cars.
I guess I’ll just have to give up on you Charles. I’ve tried over and over to see if I could tempt you to get in touch with your kinder self but it obviously isn’t going to work. That Venturi Fetish is about the most similar car you could find to a Tesla, but they want to charge an absolutely absurd amount of money for it. Now there’s a business plan you could attack with impunity!
Comment by Andrew Kelsey January 26, 2008 @ 4:45 pmMartin, I came across this by chance just googling ‘water-cooled electric motors’ (can’t think why
)and I wondered if you’d seen it. Is this really a novel technology? Do you know anything about it?
http://www.evworld.com/archives/reports/lynxmotion.html
Martin sez:
I looked at that motor a while back. To compare it against a stone age GE motor is one thing; to compare it against the kinds of motors specifically designed for mobile applications like EVs is another. I don’t think it compares in performance or power density to the Tesla motor, or the AC Propulsion motor for that matter.
This type of motor is appealing to those enamored with the idea of hub motors. As I have already commented, I am not one of the enamored, as I don’t believe hub motors solve real problems with EVs, and introduce a host of new problems.
Hub motors might yet be the subject of a future blog. I’d like to go through the logic and the math in gory detail to expose the tradeoffs fully.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey January 28, 2008 @ 8:35 amThe Lynx motor design is intriguing. You wouldn’t absolutely have to use it as a hub motor. You could mount it horizontally and use some 90 degree gear mechanism. Imagine rotating a conventional differential so that the input faces up instead of toward the front of the vehicle. Now mount your Lynx motor on top of the differential facing down.
Need more power/torque? Then stack multiple together.
Martin sez:
But if the power density is lower than other designs, why bother stacking? Note also that 90-degree gearboxes are inherently less efficient than straight ones.
Comment by TEG January 28, 2008 @ 1:18 pmThat would be a really interesting blog. I look forward to it. PML seem to be the leading lights with hub motors on this side of the Atlantic but I’m sure there’s somebody doing similar work over there.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey January 28, 2008 @ 2:17 pmMartin sez:
But if the power density is lower than other designs, why bother stacking? Note also that 90-degree gearboxes are inherently less efficient than straight ones.
Yes, I know. I was just pointing out a way to do it without having to do hub mounts. Someone would have to compare all the numbers to see if there were any advantages. Also, sometimes it is important to pay attention to alternate approaches… Perhaps it could be improved.
BTW, I think the Porsche Boxster/Cayman is an elegant design for an ICEmobile, but it does have to do the 90 degree thing with the power output… (As do other flat 6 Porsches)
Comment by TEG January 28, 2008 @ 4:43 pmI just received an email announcement of the first Tesla roadster delivery to EM. Smile here.
Aside from all the cyber-thoughts in the past couple months, this is monumental!!
Martin, you have been so instrumental in this event in history.
I say congrats to YOU – for your critical part in creating a historical milestone! Without your passion this would have not occured – at this time or product.
Nicola, would have been amazed. But he also gave to the world some thing greater than he created.
So we may all.
Cheers,
Jp
martin sez:
Thanks, Jp. I will be even happier when they deliver the second car!
Comment by Jp January 31, 2008 @ 9:08 pmMartin-
Do you think that when P#2 is delivered to you there will be much fanfare from Tesla?
I know that you have integrity and that you want all the best for Tesla, but they might see it as a potential for you to blow off some steam in a Tesla-sponsored venue? Not that you would, & I am serious in my appraisal that you would not, but sometimes emotionally immature people believe that all people are emotionally immature in the same way that emotionally mature people believe that everyone should be emotionally mature.
Martin sez:
I really don’t know how Tesla will handle delivery of P2. It is interesting to note that when they talk about delivery of the second car, nowhere does Tesla ever mention that P2 is mine – the founder’s car.
Comment by DrTaras February 1, 2008 @ 8:03 amI hope Tesla and its owners will be big enough to recognize Martin’s contribution with some kind of delivery ceremony. Reconciliation is always a better bet than rancour and recrimination. A little hatchet-burying would make us all feel better I think. Easy for me to say!
Comment by Andrew Kelsey February 1, 2008 @ 9:02 amP1 delivered today
Comment by TEG February 1, 2008 @ 10:34 pmIt is amazing the extent Tesla has gone to kill this story. The ironic thing is that I never would have heard about this Blog but for a story about Tesla’s forcing the censorship of a Blog entry.
StillHasAJob suggested comparing present day Tesla Team to previous versions and noted how many people have left Tesla. I discovered that the cache of the Tesla Team page has been updated in Google, Yahoo and MSN. And all previous copies of the Tesla Team have been removed from the Wayback Machine. This is an incredible feat because it is next to impossible to get cache’s removed from the Wayback Machine.
For those intent finding the list, Tesla has yet to get rid of the cache for the Tesla Team from the search engine GigaBlast.com. If you Google “Tesla Bloodbath” and include a name that used to be on the team but is no longer you will find the list quoted in any of a number of articles.
Tesla should really know better than this. Deadlines were missed and it is a startup company. Sometimes harsh measures must be taken. When you go out and waste corporate resources censoring Blogs, erasing the cache from search engines and from the WayBack Machine you imply guilt because you have something to hide. It just lacks class, and Tesla is marketing to people in my income bracket. It does not impress.
Comment by Anonymous February 2, 2008 @ 1:51 pmExhaustive research but interesting and valid perception by: Anonymous February 2,2008 @ 1:51pm. I kept hard copies from the website early on and see who will have made it possible… Sometimes people have short memories and forget how they got where they are today.
Comment by Andy DeShon February 3, 2008 @ 11:58 pmEDSON writes the TESLA story…
Martin sez:
Sigh.
Comment by TEG February 6, 2008 @ 4:07 pmMartin,
I wanted to ask you what happened with Ian Wright. He seemed like such a good match for your team and it was never really covered in the press (the buzz was exponentially lower back then). Did he part on good terms? Anything you can offer would be appreciated.
Martin sez:
People ask me about Ian from time to time. Ian and I have such different views about management and also about global warming that I can’t imagine working with him again.
Comment by Pete February 8, 2008 @ 3:55 pmI was surprised by the way the whole global warming debate plays into the Tesla story. Some Tesla customers who (apparently) love the car for styling, performance, and other such reasons, appear to think that global warming is just a political hoax.
Many companies are jumping on the “go green” soapbox, and are tempted to say you are “saving the planet” by buying an EV. Over on the tmclub forum some Tesla customers posted some articles claiming renowned scientists now say global warming isn’t real. I felt compelled to show that things are more factionalized and politically driven, and you can find groups claiming data to show either position. I have my own hunches and opinions, but it is difficult if someone says “prove your point of view is right”. The data about what might happen isn’t provable until it is too late. There will always be holdouts who believe we can never damage our planet no matter what we do, so it can be a sticky place to be.
I tend to think there are plenty of very good reasons to pursue EVs even if you don’t try to pull in the global warming argument.
By the way, some of the loudest voices claiming that global warming isn’t real are part of the New Zealand Climate “Science” Coalition. (Ian is originally from New Zealand as well)
I try to be open minded and not push one viewpoint hard on anyone, but then being “in the middle”, both sides tend to think I am just “wishy washy” or indecisive. That ends up being a “no win” situation, so you end up feeling pressure to “pick a side”. Then you end up isolating yourself from those with a different viewpoint. So… I hope to keep the global warming debate separate from EV justification conversations. There are already a bunch of more provable reasons why EVs and MPGe improvements are very beneficial.
Martin sez:
Quite a few of the global warming-denying arguments trace back to a book called The Skeptical Environmentalist by Bjorn Lomborg. I spent some time looking into this book, and concluded that Lomborg is not just wrong, he deliberately lies in his book. Lies and lies and lies. See, for example, this site: Lomborg errors.
I can’t imagine what motivates the guy. But when you look into is claims, the proof that he is wrong lies right in the source material he himself quotes! Check out, for example, his astonishing claim that there is no deforestation on the earth, but instead, forest cover continues to increase on the planet! Then read this bogosity debunked at lomborg-errors. In case you don’t believe the debunking, do what I did: go to the library and pull out his own source material and read it yourself…
Comment by TEG February 8, 2008 @ 8:01 pmLooks like Bjorn has even newer books including “Cool It” specifically about global warming.
(Amazon includes a favorable review by author Michael Crichton who seems to have positioned himself as a spokesman of sorts for Bjorn’s viewpoint).
Here is one site that picks apart Bjorn’s numbers in the new book
The whole situation seems as contentious as ever.
At least Bjorn doesn’t offer the “complete denial” perspective. His arguments are more along the lines of saying it is real and we are causing it, but he suggests it won’t be nearly as bad as many others are saying. Also he suggests that some people (living in extreme cold climates) will benefit from the changes”.
What can we do about this? Can Al Gore really change public perception enough around the globe to make a difference? Is the best we can do to slow down the inevitable?
Technology advancement can help:
Better/cheaper solar panels.
Better/cheaper batteries ( & ultracaps )
Better EVs
More energy efficient homes
..etc…
Where else should we be trying hardest? :
Making fusion power a reality?
Help more people work from home (less commuting)?
???
I feel like everyone should try to do their parts as best they can, but I also feel a little defeated in that the constantly growing world population is just going to catch up with us one way or another in the long run.
Well, enough on all that… I need to find something more positive to think about now.
Comment by TEG February 9, 2008 @ 2:08 am##TEG said.
##Some Tesla customers who (apparently) love the car for styling, performance, and other such reasons, appear to think that global warming is just a political hoax.
TEG, I may be one of the people you’re thinking of. I’m not a customer for the car but I do think it’s great step forward. I admit I’m on the fence when it comes to Global Warming. I don’t think it’s just a political hoax but I do think it’s being blown out of proportion by people who often have no more understanding of it than I do. I’ve read books both ways and I’m not smart enough to know which scientists are right but I’m smart enough to know that I don’t know enough to want to spend trillions of dollars – removed from other worthwhile programmes – to correct something which may or may not be caused by us anyway and which we are unlikely to have any means of correcting. I’m old enough to remember reading the scares about a ‘new ice-age’ that were spread by well-meaning journalists in the 70s. That was all based on the best science available at the time. Just as Global Warming is supposedly based on the best science available today. Should we worry about GW? Yes. Should we do anything about it? Yes, but not anything that involves spending trillions of dollars of other people’s money on ineffective schemes. So we should do only what can be sensibly accommodated within the world’s existing economic and political framework. It simply isn’t realistic, fair or humane to tell Chinese people or Indians or Brazilians that they can’t have cars, for example, or electricity. So we have to find ways of giving them clean cars and buses, trucks etc. And ways of giving them clean electricity. Does this make me a denier? I don’t know. I hate that term as it has all those awful connotations related to idiot holocaust-deniers like David Irving. I’m happy to debate with anybody who thinks differently from me provided that they will be as courteous to me as I will be to them. If the argument descends into trading insults then I’m going to quickly lose interest and back out. Nobody is going to learn anything that way. I see EVs and REEVs in particular as being a small part of the answer if GW really is the problem. They can’t fix the world but if they are quickly adopted, and REEVs will find acceptance much more quickly, then they can reduce emissions from vehicles enormously and simultaneously even out our daily electricity consumption. That’s got to be a win-win situation.
So, I agree with you TEG that we should keep our arguments in favour of EVs and REEVs separate from the GW debate. There are plenty of good reasons to go this route that have nothing to do with GW. Freedom from middle-east oil is high up there for me as is simply the cash and convenience saving from having a relatively maintenance-free vehicle with very low running costs that still has decent performance. To me it’s a no-brainer and the quicker we can get from REEVs to full EVs the better.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey February 9, 2008 @ 4:37 amCorrect me if I’m wrong TEG, but I belive he was referring to opinions that were far stronger against global warming than yours. Both of you don’t seem that far apart in your opinions and they seem very sensible to me. I do, however, see merit in citing global warming issues as a benefit to EV’s, but it shouldn’t front and foremost. Efficincy, independence from foreign oil, conservation of our own resources, synergy to renewable energy, and local environmental benefits should get more play. For those who care to look, the benefits go far beyond one’s position on GW just as those posting here have been saying.
If someone feels that another is wishy-washy because they have not dedicated themselves to one side of the controversy, then that is the “someone’s” problem. I find it ironic that political pundits play this card so frequently against independent thinkers that don’t fit all of their opinions in one camp or the other. Isn’t it more wishy-washy to base one’s opinion on what a particular group’s opinion is or to choose one side in a debate based on pressure from others? Everyone should feel strong in their beliefs as long as they are theirs (”you still have made a choice”). Individuals who have taken others beliefs have abdicated and invalidated their own.
For me, GW sure seems more real than not. It is not just a topic de jour for greenies and journalists. GW has been investigated by scientists for decades, and while the debate is far from over it is hard to ignore the results thus far (at least if memory serves, others can do the research). In the late ’80’s there was already a lot of talk of GW and a lot of climate modeling was being done. To my recollection, those models were used to determine past climate conditions and then checked agaist with collectable data (ice core dillings, etc). This has limited value since it is easy to predict a known result, but those same models were used to predict future climate conditions. To my recollection the recent climate conditions have fallen within the predictions of many of those models. Granted the changes in climate are fairly minor to this point and the extent of future GW is very debatable, but does anyone really want to deny the risks of global warming an be wrong? What is the good in that? To Andrew’s point, we shouldn’t be throwing trillions of dollars at it but to do nothing is unbelievably irresponsible. As most have been saying, the EV has so many benefits going forward that they should be done regardless of one’s opinion on GW. After many, many years of seeing conservation of resources and decreasing oil use decried as a fringe tree-hugger idealogy by so many and ignored by those in power, it is refreshing to see political action and maintream acceptance. It is really astonishing have fast the general perception has warmed up to these concepts while still surprising that it has taken sooo long given the obvious logic of it. Independence from foreign oil is hard for anyone to argue against. It is tremendous shame that not enough people saw the value in it 20 years or more ago, but better late than never.
Comment by David Kosowsky February 9, 2008 @ 6:09 amDavid, my argument against spending the trillions of dollars is that this is not a consequence-free action. If we spend this money in this way it inevitably means we won’t spend that same money in another way…say preventing aids or malaria or whatever or building roads or hospitals or schools. So somebody has to die today in order for us to save people from a possible death through GW tomorrow. If the threat really is big enough you might still be tempted to make that selfless choice but I know which way I would want the money spent if I was the guy who was going to have to die today or be poor today to (possibly) save somebody tomorrow. Living in the States or Europe it’s tempting to believe that we can do all of these things and not choose between them but if you look at China or Brazil, where I lived for 8 years, or India, some of these choices do actually have life or death implications. I’m not sugesting we should do nothing, just that we should only do that which doesn’t involve sacrificing today’s generation to save tomorrow’s.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey February 9, 2008 @ 6:27 amSorry Andrew, I should have written more clearly. I agree with not spending trillions and your reasons for tempering spending to combat GW. I do feel that from the United States perspective, our money would be much better spent on improving efficiencies and practical alternate (specifically cleaner) energy sources rather than subsidizing drilling for oil, gas, funding the Iraq action, etc. I apologize to those that believe the Iraq action was motivated by anything other than an oil “play”. The other justifications just don’t hold water for me. Great thing about combating oil dependence is that nearly all measures will combat GW triggers also (and for free, in a sense).
Comment by David Kosowsky February 9, 2008 @ 6:55 amI’m with you on that David. Anything that looks like a ‘win-win’ is good by me. EVs and REEVs look to me like one relatively quick way of partially solving the problem….if there is a problem
…. so I’m absolutely in favour of them and solar power stations (solar power generally too) and geo-thermal and anything else that benfits mankind today as well as helping to avoid wars and pollution in future. I just don’t want to divert resources from worthwhile and essential projects today based on computer projections of possible problems with CO2 tomorrow. Plus we need serious analysis of the arguments against anthropogenic causation rather than just blanket assertions that the science is now irrefutable. That to me is like a red rag to a bull. It’s clear that there are serious arguments on both sides and a little more respect all around would make for a healthier debate. Scientists are not gods and their arguments should never be beyond questioning by reasonable people. It simply isn’t good enough to just expect us to be believers, as if it were a religion. I never bought into that either.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey February 9, 2008 @ 7:20 amAndrew Kelsey wrote:
TEG, I may be one of the people you’re thinking of.
No, from what you wrote, I think you are I are more “in the same boat” than a lot of others.
In particular, I was caught a bit off guard when Tonybelding and W8MM seemed to push their viewpoint here.
I generally think I see “eye to eye” with those guys on many things, so it was a wake-up-call to me to have them slam the Al Gore position so strongly. I figured if they were so against extreme action then I better take some time to listen to the counterarguments. Sure, most of the counterarguments are biased and seemed clearly inaccurate, but others got me thinking. I guess the one that held the most sway for me is the argument that we shouldn’t get so caught up on one issue that we neglect others that could be equally important. Stopping the spread of aids for instance deserves a lot of attention too.
David Kosowsky wrote:
Correct me if I’m wrong TEG, but I belive he was referring to opinions that were far stronger against global warming than yours.
You are right, I was talking about the ones who say that Al Gore is crank. I have a lot of respect for the guy. Perhaps we would have been better of if the strongest voice sounding the global warming alarm wasn’t affiliated so strongly with one political party.
David Kosowsky wrote:
I do, however, see merit in citing global warming issues as a benefit to EV’s, but it shouldn’t front and foremost.
Normally I would agree with you but it seems that particular issue is so polarized right now that you risk alienating yourself from a whole base of customers. Sometimes you just need to agree to disagree and put a particular issue on the sidelines to be able to otherwise work together.
(It sounds like Martin and Ian had disagreements in many other areas, so at least it wasn’t an impasse just on this one thing)
David Kosowsky wrote:
If someone feels that another is wishy-washy because they have not dedicated themselves to one side of the controversy, then that is the “someone’s” problem.
Thanks. That makes me feel a bit better.
John Kerry got slammed for being a “flip-flopper” so I know how it can be hard trying to dance in the middle.
Sometimes I make a choice not to take sides and then later regret that I “failed to commit” because I wasn’t willing at the time. Usually it has to do with the idea that I haven’t done enough research yet. I don’t like to jump to conclusions without getting a strong feeling that the data is sound. Some people are better at making the “leap of faith” without all the facts being lined up yet.
David Kosowsky wrote:
Independence from foreign oil is hard for anyone to argue against.
Yeah, I am all for the reduction of oil consumption even if “carbon footprint” isn’t necessarily the primary reason to do so.
Andrew Kelsey wrote:
my argument against spending the trillions of dollars is that this is not a consequence-free action. If we spend this money in this way it inevitably means we won’t spend that same money in another way…say preventing aids or malaria or whatever or building roads or hospitals or schools.
Yeah, that too is my main reason for thinking we need to be careful not to go too far with this. But be careful not to use the argument to say that “do nothing” is correct either.
Hopefully we didn’t lose Martin here on all this.
Comment by TEG February 9, 2008 @ 3:41 pmDavid Kosowsky wrote:
If someone feels that another is wishy-washy because they have not dedicated themselves to one side of the controversy, then that is the “someone’s” problem.
This is the quote (from here) that still has me perturbed:
Comment by TEG February 9, 2008 @ 4:16 pm————————————————–
“” I just love all the “reasonable” people who think that a position half way between a wild-eyed politically-calculated false assertion and a large body of contravening observable facts is an intellectually sound compromise. “”
————————————————–
One of the difficulties for a car company starting at the “high end” is that they are selling to a lot of billionaires. Billionaires who have more of a “money preservation” mindset (e.g.: don’t tax me to pay for global warming prevention!) and also tend to have stronger opinions than the typical middle class car buyer. If Tesla only sold cars in Hollywood they might be able to play the “carbon footprint” angle a little harder, but they want to sell cars to anyone who has $100K to spare and likes the car.
Comment by TEG February 9, 2008 @ 4:30 pm“” I just love all the “reasonable” people who think that a position half way between a wild-eyed politically-calculated false assertion and a large body of contravening observable facts is an intellectually sound compromise. “”
That’s a lot of fancy sylables. Sounds like Jesse Jackson speak. GW is a scientific issue not an ideological or political one. Can’t imagine anybody is for it. How or if it gets addressed is political in today’s reality but it shouldn’t be. Some scientific issues can be addressed solely by a free market economy and some can’t. I don’t see how a free market can solely adress GW, rather it can only adress it coincidentally with other issues such as EV’s. So, if GW is real threat then governments are best suited to address it. Luckily, many of the ways to do so also can have significant side benefits. Science advisers (hopefully good ones) should be determining the GW risks for those in power and then the political leaders should determine what, if any, actions should be taken.
Comment by David Kosowsky February 9, 2008 @ 5:46 pmDavid Kosowsky wrote:
Science advisers (hopefully good ones) should be determining the GW risks for those in power and then the political leaders should determine what, if any, actions should be taken.
And what do you do when they are not interested?
Comment by TEG February 9, 2008 @ 7:25 pmI am very curious. Does anyone have any idea when production 2 roadster is supposed to roll out?
Comment by Jeffrey February 13, 2008 @ 4:25 pmThe entire issue with respect to whether Global Warming is real is moot. Pollution is bad, regardless of whether or not it causes Global Warming.
Mandating solutions which reduce pollution is good government policy because those solutions create jobs which fuel our economy. The argument that reducing pollution (i.e. fighting Global Warming) will cost jobs or hurt the economy is a fallacy.
The argument that we should pollute our environment so we can spend money in other areas (like fighting malaria) rather in the elimination of pollution is short sighted. The longer it takes for we as a human race to decide to eliminate pollution the higher the eventual cost of clean up will be whether that cost be in dollars or in the costs associated with lung disease and cancer.
The notion that fighting Global Warming will cost a fixed amount on an annual basis over an extended period of time is a myth. Green technology will become increasingly cheaper until eventually it ends up costing very little extra live in a manner which does not pollute the environment.
Green technology will create jobs and create technology which will eventually make us gasoline a substance reserved for antique vehicles. Deserts will be the power plants of the future converting sunlight into electricity cheaper than coal. Owning the technology that makes this a reality is a good long term economic policy for the United States.
The United States should be leader in the development of environmentally friendly solutions to reduce pollution because this will be a technical imperative for corporations in the future. It is a crime that our present administration is so closely tied to the oil economy that we as a nation continue to fail to invest in our world’s future.
Comment by Anonymous February 15, 2008 @ 7:17 pmHey Anonymous, sorry for being so ’short-sighted’. Believe it or not I am capable of sufficiently sophisticated thought processes to realise that there is a trade-off here between immediate benefits and longer term ones. Just like you I’m in favour of having a cleaner world for our kids to grow up in but I am entitled to have a different opinion about how we get there and what we sacrifice in order to achieve it. As I pointed out in an earlier post it’s much easier to decide that spending on the future is okay if you’re not the one who is going to make the sacrifices in the present to pay for it. Whichever way you slice it carbon sequestration and the like is very expensive and must divert resources from other areas.
That said, I’m all in favour of greater efficiency in every area and I believe, like you, that some green measures can offer win-win solutions….battery driven cars being one example, once battery prices drop and performance improves. Right now they’re too expensive to have much impact. I’m very much with you on the huge benefits of solar energy both on the local level and longer-term as a substitute for present power stations, but all of this has to take place within our existing economic and political framework. It just isn’t realistic to expect today’s taxpayers to shell out trillions in an altruistic way. They’ve never done this before and I can’t think why you would expect them to do it now. You may think that’s stupid and short-sighted but politicians know that people vote with their pocket books and you have to carry them with you, not try to force them to ‘do the right thing.’
Comment by Andrew Kelsey February 16, 2008 @ 3:52 amJeffrey wrote:
Comment by TEG February 19, 2008 @ 7:14 pmI am very curious. Does anyone have any idea when production 2 roadster is supposed to roll out?
Here they say:
“…series production of the Roadster is still set to begin at Lotus’ Hethel UK factory on March 17. The first car off the line that day (production unit #2) will be delivered to now departed company founder Martin Eberhard soon afterward.”
If they fly it out (like they did with P1) it could be days later. If they send it by boat then add more weeks.
Martin, I can’t believe the number of suitors for you on this blog. How will you choose your next business system or will you make another one?
We are both on the same side of the debate on product vs business system.
But what about the deeper entrepreneurial debate about team vs idea vs capital?
Where do you stand?
Almost EVERYBODY believes in team over everything else, but I’m beginning to think that system has to play in there somewhere.
For example, the HP way was more of a personal philosophy than the team Hewlett and Packard…
Anyway, the garage days are gone… five years before your first sale, you’re a damn celebrity and probably feel a sense of failure in the system, as your fans scream for more!!!
So I would say, TRY TO IGNORE ALL THE SHINY CARROTS BEING DANGLED and ask about the business system first, then the team, then show me your technology.
Personally, I wouldn’t get involved in any automaker startup unless it had several entities including a racing R&D entity to make mistakes in exchange for advertising AND as you said before, a system of suppliers, in other words relationships in place for the details, you know, like the plastic and rubber.
I wouldn’t get involved unless I had a network of suppliers from Asia that could supply some high quality non-essentials at global lowest costs BUT I would measure the R&D racing team with number of patents over quality of patents and pit teams against each other to race technologies.
SO MUCH FOR KEEPING MY BUSINESS PLAN SECRETS…
Comment by John Acheson February 23, 2008 @ 12:38 amI found this blog thru the USA TODAY article of Tesla Motors. I found the original founders important and I understand the stories are not here no more.
Comment by Teflon March 9, 2008 @ 12:19 amConcerning GW:
I had been much persuaded by the warming graphs and arguments, especially the risk/payoff analyses in favor of acting now, but recently have had my views moderated by some data points. To wit:
1. Water vapor has the same absorption/reflection profile as CO2, but is orders of magnitude more abundant in the atmosphere. Its effects would utterly swamp any CO2 changes.
2. Geological history says that peaks of CO2 FOLLOWED temperature rises by ~800 years. If any one can tell me how, if A precedes B, B can be the cause of A, I’m all ears.
3. Solar cycles are powerful players, and it happens that this year’s sunspot minimum corresponds to an average global temperature DROP which totally reverses the last ~12 years’ increases.
I am forcibly reminded of a caution written by Bertrand Russell, along the lines of, “If the experts are all agreed, it is intellectually unsafe to be certain of the contrary opinion. If the experts are in disagreement, it is intellectually unsafe to be certain of any opinion.”
Martin sez:
Bertrand Russell usually got it right… The vast majority of experts do seem to agree that global warming is a problem and that we humans are a major part of the problem. This opinion is not unanimous, but it seems to be very widespread among experts..
There is also an important argument for erring on the side of conservativeness here, (and I am sure there is even a pithy quote to go with it). The conservative argument is this: if we choose to do what we can to mitigate global warming and it turns out that it’s not really a problem, then we have wasted a pile of money – but we have also diversified our energy sources and reduced consumption along the way, freeing us from our utter dependency on OPEC, and particularly on oil producers who actually hate us. But if we choose not to try and mitigate global warming and we get it wrong, then we are totally screwed: sea levels rising wiping out many cities, major weather changes messing up agriculture, lots of species extinction, etc. So in the face of reasonable uncertainty, we should do everything we can to mitigate global warming.
Why do so many so-called conservatives not get this?
Comment by Brian H March 18, 2008 @ 7:35 amBrian, many leading climate scientists are convinced that a major disinformation campaign about global warming is ongoing. In fact a huge amount of data and analyses exist to support global climate change caused by CO2 in the atmosphere, and an overwhelming majority of top climate scientist are in agreement on it. For an overview, here’s a link to a video which I’ve posted on this site several times: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2966006455296788742&q=symposium+romm&total=2&start=0&num=100&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
The absorption spectra of CO2 and water vapor aren’t the same. Essentially, water vapor is indeed far more abundant and blocks most infrared, but it has “windows” in its spectrum which prevent a runaway greenhouse effect. The CO2 absorption spectrum blocks those windows. http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:yqqaM51qpDsJ:www.te-software.co.nz/blog/augie_auer.htm+%22absorption+spectrum+for+co2%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
Concerning the reversal of global warming claim, I’ll paste in one of my posts elsewhere on this site:
————
excerpt from Joe Romm’s http://climateprogress.org, at http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/11/where-is-the-media-on-the-incredible-warming-and-extreme-weather-of-february :
———-
So what exactly is the news here? What is all the fuss about?
The major answer is big media swallowed the spin of disinformers. The minor answer is two sow’s ears of relatively meaningless weather-related factoids that the disinformers have spun into a climate disinformation silk purse:
First, while January 2008 was not especially warm compared to recent years and only 0.18°C (+0.32°F) warmer than the 1961-1990 mean, January 2007 just happened to be the warmest January in recorded history, a full 0.83°C (1.49°F) warmer than the mean. That means the difference between January 2007 and January 2008 was anomalously large, over a full degree Fahrenheit. This made for a factoid that was interesting from a weather/ meteorological perspective, but totally irrelevant from a climate science perspective.
You can call this a twelve-month long drop if you inclined to such meaningless hype, but only a disinformer would say this drop is “large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years.” Even the meteorologist who uncovered the original weather factoid disavowed that statement….”
———-
Elsewhere on the site is the news that February 2008 was much warmer than February 2007, and incidentally had a record number of tornados. If you projected the change in the same manner that was used for the January data, the climate would be 30 degrees F warmer in ten years, it goes on to say.
————
Hopefully these few tips will help, but they’re no substitute for trying to find out the answers on your own. Sites like http://www.google.com and http://www.wikipedia.org are good resources.
Comment by Steve S. March 18, 2008 @ 10:42 amSteve S.,
Years ago, in studying power line magnetic fields, Granger Morgan of Carnegie Mellon University used the term “prudent avoidance” as a reasonable action to take against potential power line effects on people. I think the same term applies again here against global warming.
Comment by Jim Prewitt March 18, 2008 @ 3:02 pmMartin sez:
“Why do so many so-called conservatives not get this?”
I’m agree with Martin and as time passes the more frustrated I get with anti-GW mindset. Not the scientific objections or healthy skepticism, but rather the heels dug-in and eyes sqeezed shut thoughtless “global warming is bunk” reaction. This is the same reaction to global oil resource concerns, metro area pollution, etc. Instead of rational thought, much of the conservative establishment (until very recently) has dissmissively waved these issues off as liberal halibut. These are science questions, not social ones. People need to lay there stupid halibutten politics aside, liberal and conservative, and take a long unbiased look at the science before passing judgement on these type of issues. Just because someone believes addressing GW may be bad for the economy, that should have no bearing on their opinion of what the risk is.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 18, 2008 @ 5:40 pmJim, the power line example doesn’t have much resonance with me. The analogy of tobacco smoking seems much closer to the mark. Someone could stop smoking because he thinks that leading scientists and the scientific evidence are pretty much split down the middle about a link between smoking and cancer, but he wants to play it safe. That would be an excellent result, as far as I’m concerned, but one barely overcoming inadequate knowledge and disinformation.
The tobacco companies ran disinformation campaigns for decades to try to refute and ridicule the idea of a link between smoking and cancer, perhaps because they were doing billions of dollars of business within the status quo. Oil companies have the prospect of doing hundreds of billions of dollars of business in the years ahead, so it’s reasonable to suppose that they might have been tempted to indulge in a little disinformation to try to preserve the status quo.
Regardless of whether they did or didn’t, I think the scientific evidence is compelling that links increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and global climate change. People far brighter and more knowledgeable than I have written persuasively about it, and I encourage anyone interested to search around and learn more. It’s an important subject, if only because it’s already making big increases in the incidence, range, and severity of big storms. They kill a lot of people and destroy vast amounts of property. Along with the steady sea level rise, they could eventually cause several of our major coastal cities to be abandoned if nothing is done.
Global climate change isn’t my favorite subject. It’s just one factor in the case for reducing gasoline consumption, although it might eventually prove to be the most important one. Others are dependence on foreign oil, sending huge amounts of money to parts of the world full of people who want to do us harm, peak oil, skyrocketing gas prices and the resultant economic misery, major health problems caused by photochemical smog and particulate air pollution, five years and counting of war (for those of us who suspect it might have something to do with oil), and on and on.
My favorite part of all this is that modern electric cars are fun to drive, fast, quiet, very cheap to run, and low-maintenance. When they are available again they will also help to solve the pesky problems in the previous paragraph, as icing on the cake.
Martin sez:
We can bicker about which is the icing and which is the cake, but you captured what I was trying to express quite well. And I think your tobacco analogy is quite good, though the scale of the downside is so much greater with Global warming: the damage will not be just to ourselves, it will be to everyone else, and to our children.
Comment by Steve S. March 20, 2008 @ 7:41 amYes, Steve S, GW wouldn’t be like “all-hand” smoke. If accurate, everone is affected. But, as you eloquent stated there are also many other reasons for non-combustion powered vehicles. There is a cornucopia of reasons to reduce oil and gas use, but no good reasons not to that I’ve seen.
Comment by David Kosowsky March 20, 2008 @ 6:09 pmLook again at how GM sees electricity as an “energy carrier” so that we can “shift more energy to transportation” and cut down on the use of oil. Notice that in the GM view, the energy source will be anything but oil.
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/PDF/presentation-sm.pdf
Then look to see if you can find any mention of efficiency in their discussion.
So I conclude with the expectation that there will be a future of cars looking about like they do now, only they will use electricity to “carry” some of the energy to them.
For those that are concerned about CO2, there should be some alarms going off.
Martin sez:
Um.. How is it that electricity is not an energy carrier?
Comment by Jim Bullis March 22, 2008 @ 3:38 pmHi Martin—Has Teslamotors given you any notice yet?
“Regarding Martin’s car, we’ll let him know as soon as it’s ready for delivery and he can let you know if he wants. We are taking great car with the early cars to ensure quality. – Darryl”
Martin sez:
Interesting – did he tell you that? I wonder why they won’t even say that much to me. I bet I am th only Founders Series or Signature 100 customer who was not invited to the opening of the LA store as well…
Comment by Bill Simons April 15, 2008 @ 6:57 pmHi Martin
I hope that one day you will find a good reason that you are in the position that you now find yourself. Keep the faith.
I wish that I had a better way to do this…
I have been working for nearly 3 years on a method to make hydrogen for less than the cost of coal. It is a zero-emission process. The whole idea is so audacious that I am having a bit of trouble getting people to take it seriously. It doesn’t involve quantum mechanics, radio waves, crystals, catalysts, solar-electrolysis, or any such concepts. Rather, it is just plain old chemistry and a “clean-sheet” approach to the process, which began with CO2 capture and sequestration, and then worked backwards. In fact, the more that I work on it, the simpler it gets.
I am not advocating hydrogen so that we might have fuel cell vehicles, which have been “5 years away” for as long as I can remember. Rather, this low-cost hydrogen is intended to do two things on an industrial scale: first, to assist in the clean-up process of both heavy and sour crudes, a $30B market that is growing at 15% per year; and two, to make zero-emission electricity at very low cost. Not “renewable” power, but at least very “sustainable”.
Such electricity would help to bring a downward pressure, eventually, on electricity prices, particularly in overnight off-peak periods; hence helping electric vehicles (and everything else electric), by using our existing infrastructure. We’re talking $30 to $40 per MW-Hr, again “all-in”; with no NOx, SOx, mercury, CO2, nothing. Actually, no “smokestack” at all.
This hydrogen would cost, all-in, approximately $2.50 per mmBTU ($0.90 per GGE). The hydrogen would burn cleanly in virtually any existing gas turbine or boiler, with very minor mods. This is a plug-in substitute for natural gas, which is trading recently (Mar-Apr 08) for approx $10 per mmBTU, in what is considered a “shoulder period” (low demand between winter heating loads and summer electrical-derived demand).
I am an engineer / MBA with 25 years experience in power and energy. I’ve had to make a real living in real businesses. But I am seeking a way to make a huge change in the world; not unlike your vision. In fact, with humility, this one may have an even bigger impact.
I hope that you might have a look at my site (which is unfortunately vague, for obvious reasons), and contact me.
Thanks
Comment by Tom Tillman April 16, 2008 @ 7:21 amTom
ttillmanattexyndotcom
Martin, that comment by Darryl above was in response to my query about your car P2. The only good part of it was that he at least referred to it as ‘Martin’s car’ so I think your earlier worries on this score were perhaps unfounded. It does seem that they could do a little more in the way of customer communication
They obviously don’t want to commit to a date until they absolutely have to. It just seems rude to me but then I am a bit old fashioned…..and British!
Comment by Andrew Kelsey April 22, 2008 @ 11:09 amHere’s the Blog comment he was replying to: Andrew Kelsey wrote on April 14th, 2008 at 2:53 am
Darryl, whichever way you slice it a higher price equals lower sales. If I were your marketing or sales department I would pay a lot of attention to the Norwegian guy writing above who was very interested at the US price but isn’t going to be a customer at the ’special edition’ price. I guess you’re just using the ’special edition’ to test the water and you’ll set the real price according to the reaction you get. At current production rates you might as well price them at half a milion!
Talking of which, is there any news of the Founder’s Edition car P2 that is due to be delivered to your founder?
Andrew – you have to look at volume relative to your production capacity and your gross margins. In the US we could probably sell 10,000 roadsters at $50,000 but we can’t make that many and we would lose a bundle on every one. So the ultimate goal is not simply unit sales. As a startup you also have to look hard at fixed cost absorption since your overhead is very large relative to your sales at the early stages of growth. We are setting prices to build a healthy and successful business balancing all of these considerations. If you read my previous post, a fully loaded 2009 car in the US will be about $120,000. I don’t think there will be a very large incentive for gray market imports. Regarding Martin’s car, we’ll let him now as soon as it’s ready for delivery and he can let you know if he wants. We are taking great car with the early cars to ensure quality. – Darryl
Martin sez:
No word from Tesla yet.
Comment by Andrew Kelsey April 22, 2008 @ 11:15 amAbout the Bloomberg article: Has Elon ever been the real original from the beginning
Comment by Minnie Me May 8, 2008 @ 8:25 amcreator of anything?
I cannot believe that he tried to steal the rocket from the Russians. He had a start
when he was 12 and made a game. It doesn’t appear that he has gained any maturity since that time. He is an adventurous soul, taking other peoples creativity and making a twist to move ahead.
It certainly looks like he has allowed his ego to outgrow his pocket book. He has been taking more than giving, look at what he does to the people when he injects his money and grandiose vision of himself. PayPal erased the real founders and he is doing the
same at Tesla. It is just vengeful irresponsible behavior to risk the reputation of the company(Tesla) to beat up the Founder. I still cannot figure out how car #3 in production is delivered before car #2. Was it his special arrangement to drop it on its roof that caused a delay? Cars don’t need new roofs unless the get dropped.
The timing of the initial public offering, will it be after he blows up another $10 million dollar rocket? Or, when the State of California that the Solar Contractors license or
when the party money runs low?
Would you invest in a company that has demonstrated such a lack of leadership since you left it? Would you invest in a company run by an impulsive spoiled brat?
Come to the LayoffCafe.com and express yourself.
Comment by Mark May 26, 2008 @ 12:55 pmWhile looking at some other beautiful cars, it just “stroke” me how many “similarities” body styling wise compared, to my eyes, there are between the Tesla Roadster and the BMW Z8 – see http://www.seriouswheels.com/abc/BMW-Z8-Front-Angle-Palm-Trees-1280×960.htm ……
Martin sez:
The Z8, of course, was designed by Henrik Fisker.
Comment by Jgbjgb June 12, 2008 @ 12:46 pmI recently viewed this artcle and 30 different electric car companies (http://venturebeat.com/2008/01/10/27-electric-cars-companies-ready-to-take-over-the-road/)
First I was suprised at the total number of 30 and some wierd, suprising, practical and impractical designs.
The two key issues that would concern me regarding purchasing an EV would be
1)Life and degredation of range over life of the batteries.
2) The predicted reliability of brand new designs in brand new factories.
I would really like to understand if I can expect a new electric car to last 100K miles.
Any comments? Anyone?
Comment by Anthony Sweeney July 1, 2008 @ 1:13 pmtrucks for sale in the united states…
As you seem to know what your doing blogging wise, do you know what the best time of the week is to blog and have them read?…
Trackback by trucks for sale in the united states July 4, 2008 @ 9:07 pmWhat am I missing?
Assuming I buy a future EV that has say, a 150 mile range and I need to travel further on a particular day. Why not just pop a gas generator (for example a Honda 3000iS) or similar into the trunk and power the batteries using this – it would be a custom install and maybe a dedicated rather than a commercial unit – but a 3kW genny that uses a gallon of gas an hour under load would extend the vehicle range surely. And when I returned home and no longer needed it, I’d pull it out and put it back in the garage.
Seems that there are many novel solutions to a problem if you think outside of the box.
Martin sez:
It’s all about thinking outside the box
Go back and read the oldest post on this blog site – what you are proposing is exactly the idea behind a “range -extended electric vehicle.” Obviously, you can’t just pop an off-the-shelf generator in the trunk because of safety, reliability, and smog control reasons, but conceptually, what you propose is where GM is going with the Volt.
Making the genset removable by the driver is difficult to impossible when you take into account the requirements of safety and smog. The genset will be relatively heavy, so it will be a significant component of the crash mass of the vehicle, and the gas tank absolutely must be protected.
Comment by Steve Congrave July 8, 2008 @ 8:17 amSteve, it’s absolutely correct that manufacturing and selling cars with that kind of setup would be very difficult, but what you suggest is exactly what I would do if a small EV with a pickup bed, range 40 miles plus, is ever offered. I’d consider building a small platform on the back of a similar passenger car. Several Honda generator models are very quiet, designed to be easily lifted, and have electric start. Even if you never ran it on the road, it would be nice to be able to let it run while parked. Alan Cocconi built a small trailer with a gas engine and generator to enable long trips with his T-zero electric sports car, and as far as I know he was never arrested or injured because of it.
Comment by Steve S. July 8, 2008 @ 11:25 amAhh, you see this is where a hobbyist type of solution works. For the manufacturer to have to cover all the bases with this type of solution requires all the testing that you refer to. However, if the manufacturer simply supplied the charging circuit and did not supply the generator, then the hobbyist can supply that and not be required to meet all of the expensive and stringent testing required. The current Do It Yourself modifications for the Toyota Prius for example involve the hobbyist building LiPo packs, and updating the Toyota software etc to create a Prius that can drive 40 miles at 34mph on electric and plug in to charge.
It’s the hobbyist and small ‘after market’ manufacturer who will change the face of EV – not the likes of GM who are hamstrung with legal and liability issues. What GM produces has to appeal to 5 million people, a small manufacturer is able to survive on 1000 customers.
I drive an RV with a built in 8kW diesel generator, not well protecte and not sure about it’s smog requirements because it’s never smogged. I have a 3kW backup Honda generator that weighs 68lbs – I can lift it in and out of the storage bay. Using a standard permanently installed gas tank with a no-drip quick-fit fitting would be simple and safe. Unless the generator is used for traction I don’t think it needs smog – it’s a battery charger, not a traction motor.
Comment by Steve Congrave July 8, 2008 @ 11:34 amSteve, I must hasten to add that I (like Alan) am an engineer with substantial risk assessment skills, and am willing to accept more risk than an average person. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with providing customers off the street with such a setup.
An aftermarket for it might be able to be worked out successfully, and I can imagine car companies eventually coming up with a version of it because the idea has considerable merit for many drivers.
The big car companies are of course crucially important in the coming electic car revolution, with design and development capabilities beyond that of hobbyists. They’ve been lax in innovation in the beginning phase (e.g. Aerovironment created the EV-1 prototype, not GM) but that will change.
You shouldn’t neglect the amazingly high level of safety built into modern cars, nor compromise it without careful thought. If you’ve ever been present at a gasoline fire you know that’s not a trivial concern.
All that said, have fun with the idea! I know I will, and I can’t wait for suitable EVs to show up in showrooms.
Comment by Steve S. July 8, 2008 @ 2:09 pmYou are right, of course, Joe Public would be a major concern with such a solution
Whilst the big car companies will be crucial, I’m still not convinced that they take the concept seriously enough at Board level. We will have to see $8 a gallon before they will wake up and I think the reason is that they perceive that the market will demand an EV that recharges in 2 minutes (like a gas car does), drives 400 miles (like a gas car does) and does 80+mph and 0-60 in less than 10 seconds (like a gas car does).
I think they underestimate Joe Publics acceptance of compromise in todays fuel price conscious world.
The hobbyist and aftermarket converters will have to demonstrate that a 50 mile range, 40mph vehicle does have a place in the city – after all some of us bought Smart Cars and no-one estimated the demand for those ‘weird’ cars did they? Overpriced, uncomfortable, perceived as dangerous and as ‘toys’ – yet they sell at a premium price and with an 18 month wait list – go figure!
Interesting times.
Comment by Steve Congrave July 9, 2008 @ 12:41 pmSteve, we’re on the same page. These are certainly interesting times, and they’re going to get a lot more interesting in a year or two when affordable 50 mile electric range, 70 – 80 mph parallel hybrids and EVs, mostly from Japan, start appearing on our roads.
Comment by Steve S. July 10, 2008 @ 12:01 amMartin, how did you feel about the re-writing of history on “60 Minutes” last night? Not a word about you as the founder, visionary, driving force for what Tesla is, or should have become, and its relation to what the rest of the automotive world is now pursuing.
Martin sez:
Yes, it is annoying and frustrating to see Musk get credit for founding Tesla Motors 5 years ago, when 5 years ago he never even heard of the company. Five years ago, Tesla Motors comprised Marc and me, and 5 years ago we envisioned the Tesla Roadster and the changes it would bring to the auto industry.
Considering that 60 Minutes is supposed to give a little more depth and research, this is all the more disappointing.
Comment by Siggie October 6, 2008 @ 8:30 amSeems like more cabbage is going down at Tesla right now. Big cabbage, so it seems.
Comment by mfeberhard October 14, 2008 @ 1:05 pmHi Martin,
could you possibly elaborate?
ATB,
Chris.
Martin sez:
The company’s new CEO is “holding people accountable at all levels, and that starts at the top.” -Darryl Siry, Venture Beat, 11 January 2008
Comment by Chris Harvey October 14, 2008 @ 2:14 pmSounds like that could mean more people losing their jobs. That’s very unfortunate.
Comment by Chris Harvey October 14, 2008 @ 3:49 pmElon Musk is now Tesla CEO and he is laying off those who are not in the “special forces.” http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=65
Comment by Siggie October 17, 2008 @ 11:19 am